{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15cy806p6p6588a2dkenj", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15cxr06p0p658z16ac56r", "ticker": "TYL", "snapshotId": "cmnr15cy206p4p6589tvjjrph", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.270Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15cy206p4p6589tvjjrph", "assetId": "cmnr15cxr06p0p658z16ac56r", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 335.26, "price": 327.88, "dayLow": 327.45, "volume": 484826, "dayHigh": 340, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 333.7, "week52Low": 283.715, "week52High": 621.34 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 62.0150273224044, "beta": 1.03465412066382, "epsTTM": 7.32, "fcfTTM": 518605000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.1863857374392221, "revenueYoy": 0.09099856254294712 }, "sector": "Services-Prepackaged Software", "margins": { "net": 0.1353160345404186, "gross": 0.4646406613101006, "operating": 0.1533549996998722 }, "website": "http://tylertech.com", "industry": "Software", "pegRatio": 3.32724103112378, "ebitdaTTM": 499717000, "forwardPe": 45.5315947843531, "marketCap": 25541975159, "totalCash": 744721000, "totalDebt": 597934000, "debtEquity": 0.161949006546147, "quickRatio": 1.278862657621431, "revenueTTM": 2332340000, "companyName": "TYLER TECHNOLOGIES INC", "priceToBook": 5.28330813611037, "currentRatio": 1.352073513030601, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.06092704364755701, "returnOnEquity": 0.0852338602064552, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Tyler Technologies, Inc. is an American technology company based in Plano, Texas, that provides proprietary software to the U.S. public sector. Tyler Technologies has offices in 17 states and one in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.", "enterpriseValue": 19147238250, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 7800, "sharesOutstanding": 42985340, "enterpriseToEbitda": 38.31616344851186, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 8.209454131901866, "operatingCashflowTTM": 653543000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.267Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15cyb06p8p658mb6a0n0x", "runId": "cmnr15cy806p6p6588a2dkenj", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TYL\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":327.88,\"target_price_6m\":352,\"target_price_12m\":375,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Dominant gov-tech software franchise with high switching costs and recurring revenue\",\"Cloud transition driving margin expansion from 15.3% operating toward 20%+\",\"Stock down ~47% from 52-week high, multiple compression creates entry opportunity\",\"FCF generation strong at $519M TTM; ~2% yield with double-digit growth potential\",\"Valuation still elevated at 62x PE, limiting near-term upside in risk-off markets\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Government cloud migration accelerating recurring revenue mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage from SaaS transition improving margins\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Sticky public-sector customer base with long contract cycles\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Resilient government IT budgets less tied to economic cycles\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS growth of ~19% YoY outpacing revenue growth of ~9%\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward PE of 45.5x still premium versus software peers\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"PEG ratio of 3.3x suggests growth not yet justifying valuation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro uncertainty and risk-off rotation pressuring high-multiple names\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin of 46.5% lags pure SaaS peers\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Further multiple compression if risk appetite stays weak or rates remain elevated\",\"Government budget sequestration or spending freezes could slow new contract awards\",\"Cloud transition execution risk: slower-than-expected migration timelines\",\"Competitive pressure from larger enterprise platforms entering public sector\",\"Acquisition integration risk if M&A strategy accelerates\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.11,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.20,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":30},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":270,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Growth slows to mid-single digits, multiple compresses further to ~25x FCF.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":370,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady ~10% revenue growth, margin expansion, FCF multiple stabilizes at ~33x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":475,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Cloud acceleration re-rates multiple to ~38x FCF with margin inflection above 20%.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"FCF-based valuation: TTM FCF $519M growing ~12% to ~$580M in 12M, applied forward FCF multiples across scenarios. EV adjusted for net cash ~$147M, divided by ~43M shares. Stock's severe drawdown from $621 high suggests structural de-rating; recovery depends on margin proof points and sentiment shift. Base case 12M return ~14.4% supports BUY. Confidence moderate given unclear catalysts for near-term re-rating. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Further multiple compression if risk appetite stays weak or rates remain elevated", "Government budget sequestration or spending freezes could slow new contract awards", "Cloud transition execution risk: slower-than-expected migration timelines", "Competitive pressure from larger enterprise platforms entering public sector", "Acquisition integration risk if M&A strategy accelerates" ], "ticker": "TYL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady ~10% revenue growth, margin expansion, FCF multiple stabilizes at ~33x.", "target_price": 370 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Growth slows to mid-single digits, multiple compresses further to ~25x FCF.", "target_price": 270 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Cloud acceleration re-rates multiple to ~38x FCF with margin inflection above 20%.", "target_price": 475 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 30, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Government cloud migration accelerating recurring revenue mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage from SaaS transition improving margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Sticky public-sector customer base with long contract cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Resilient government IT budgets less tied to economic cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EPS growth of ~19% YoY outpacing revenue growth of ~9%", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward PE of 45.5x still premium versus software peers", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "PEG ratio of 3.3x suggests growth not yet justifying valuation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Macro uncertainty and risk-off rotation pressuring high-multiple names", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Gross margin of 46.5% lags pure SaaS peers", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "FCF-based valuation: TTM FCF $519M growing ~12% to ~$580M in 12M, applied forward FCF multiples across scenarios. EV adjusted for net cash ~$147M, divided by ~43M shares. Stock's severe drawdown from $621 high suggests structural de-rating; recovery depends on margin proof points and sentiment shift. Base case 12M return ~14.4% supports BUY. Confidence moderate given unclear catalysts for near-term re-rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 327.88, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant gov-tech software franchise with high switching costs and recurring revenue", "Cloud transition driving margin expansion from 15.3% operating toward 20%+", "Stock down ~47% from 52-week high, multiple compression creates entry opportunity", "FCF generation strong at $519M TTM; ~2% yield with double-digit growth potential", "Valuation still elevated at 62x PE, limiting near-term upside in risk-off markets" ], "target_price_6m": 352, "target_price_12m": 375 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 46934, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.270Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3557, "outputTokens": 2162, "costUsd": 0.071835 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cyb06pbp658519i7aya", "runId": "cmnr15cy806p6p6588a2dkenj", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TYL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 327.88,\n \"target_price_6m\": 332,\n \"target_price_12m\": 340,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong market position in public sector software.\",\n \"Consistent revenue growth from digitization trends.\",\n \"High valuation multiples reflect growth expectations.\",\n \"Stable operating margins with improvement potential.\",\n \"Balanced risk-reward at current price levels.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Public sector digitization demand\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue growth sustainability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Margin expansion potential\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"High P/E ratio valuation risk\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive landscape intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic sensitivity of government spending\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Recurring revenue model stability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Manageable debt levels\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Valuation multiple compression.\", \"Slower than expected growth.\", \"Increased competition.\", \"Regulatory changes.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.1,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.16,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 25\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 300, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Growth slows and multiples contract.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 340, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Current growth and valuation trends persist.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 380, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated growth and multiple expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed 10% revenue CAGR, 16% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, and 25x terminal EV/EBITDA. Recommendation HOLD due to 3.7% expected upside, not meeting BUY threshold. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI Model", "risks": [ "Valuation multiple compression.", "Slower than expected growth.", "Increased competition.", "Regulatory changes." ], "ticker": "TYL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Current growth and valuation trends persist.", "target_price": 340 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Growth slows and multiples contract.", "target_price": 300 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated growth and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 380 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.1, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.16 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Public sector digitization demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth sustainability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion potential", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High P/E ratio valuation risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive landscape intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic sensitivity of government spending", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Recurring revenue model stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Manageable debt levels", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed 10% revenue CAGR, 16% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, and 25x terminal EV/EBITDA. Recommendation HOLD due to 3.7% expected upside, not meeting BUY threshold. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 327.88, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong market position in public sector software.", "Consistent revenue growth from digitization trends.", "High valuation multiples reflect growth expectations.", "Stable operating margins with improvement potential.", "Balanced risk-reward at current price levels." ], "target_price_6m": 332, "target_price_12m": 340 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 552, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.270Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2074, "outputTokens": 4249, "costUsd": 0.002365 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cyb06p9p658jxulrbcp", "runId": "cmnr15cy806p6p6588a2dkenj", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch-Alpha-v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TYL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 327.88,\n \"target_price_6m\": 335.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 340.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Dominant market position in niche U.S. public sector software with high switching costs.\",\n \"Ongoing transition to SaaS model provides long-term recurring revenue visibility and margin expansion.\",\n \"Top-line growth of 9% is steady but does not fully justify the 45x forward P/E.\",\n \"Strong free cash flow generation of $518M TTM supports debt reduction and strategic M&A.\",\n \"Valuation remains a headwind; multiple compression risk limits near-term upside despite defensive end-markets.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"SaaS and Cloud Migration Rate\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Local Government IT Budgets\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Valuation Multiple Compression\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating Margin Expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tuck-in M&A Integration\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Public Sector Procurement Cycles\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Extended sales cycles in local and state government procurement processes.\",\n \"Macroeconomic pressures reducing municipal budgets and delaying IT modernization projects.\",\n \"High valuation multiple leaves little room for execution missteps or earnings misses.\",\n \"Integration risks associated with ongoing strategic acquisitions.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.085,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.18,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 35.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 280.00,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Multiple compression continues due to budget constraints and slower SaaS migration.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 340.00,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady SaaS transition and mid-teens EPS growth, with multiple stabilizing around 40x.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 410.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated cloud adoption by local governments drives significant margin expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and EV/EBITDA comps. High forward P/E limits upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch-Alpha-v1", "risks": [ "Extended sales cycles in local and state government procurement processes.", "Macroeconomic pressures reducing municipal budgets and delaying IT modernization projects.", "High valuation multiple leaves little room for execution missteps or earnings misses.", "Integration risks associated with ongoing strategic acquisitions." ], "ticker": "TYL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady SaaS transition and mid-teens EPS growth, with multiple stabilizing around 40x.", "target_price": 340 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Multiple compression continues due to budget constraints and slower SaaS migration.", "target_price": 280 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated cloud adoption by local governments drives significant margin expansion.", "target_price": 410 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.085, "terminal_multiple": 35, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "SaaS and Cloud Migration Rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Local Government IT Budgets", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation Multiple Compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating Margin Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tuck-in M&A Integration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Public Sector Procurement Cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and EV/EBITDA comps. High forward P/E limits upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 327.88, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant market position in niche U.S. public sector software with high switching costs.", "Ongoing transition to SaaS model provides long-term recurring revenue visibility and margin expansion.", "Top-line growth of 9% is steady but does not fully justify the 45x forward P/E.", "Strong free cash flow generation of $518M TTM supports debt reduction and strategic M&A.", "Valuation remains a headwind; multiple compression risk limits near-term upside despite defensive end-markets." ], "target_price_6m": 335, "target_price_12m": 340 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24778, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.270Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2424, "outputTokens": 837, "costUsd": 0.014892 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cyb06p7p658vye267cj", "runId": "cmnr15cy806p6p6588a2dkenj", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TYL\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":327.88,\"target_price_6m\":305,\"target_price_12m\":292,\"recommendation\":\"SELL\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Sticky public-sector software supports durable recurring revenue and low churn.\",\"Net cash balance and strong FCF reduce financial risk.\",\"Growth slowed to about 9%, below valuation implied by premium multiples.\",\"Operating margin near 15% limits upside without stronger execution.\",\"After the drawdown, shares look cheaper but still above fair value.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Public-sector recurring revenue\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cloud migration and upsell\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Bookings conversion pace\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin expansion execution\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Government budget cycles\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"M&A integration discipline\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Cloud mix lifts margins faster than expected.\",\"State and local IT spending accelerates.\",\"Lower rates sustain premium software multiples.\",\"Acquisitions add growth and cross-sell.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":10.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":18.5,\"wacc\":8.5,\"terminal_multiple\":28},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":245,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Budget delays and derating push valuation toward 24x EBIT.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":292,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Low-double-digit growth and modest margin gains support fair value near 28x EBIT.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":360,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Cloud acceleration and easing rates preserve a premium multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation uses a blended EV/EBIT and FCF cross-check from snapshot fundamentals; assumptions imply ~28x terminal EV/EBIT on 18.5% EBIT margin and 8.5% WACC. I did not use sell-side targets; snapshot quote fields remain authoritative. Recommendation is SELL because 12M fair value is ~11% below current price; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Cloud mix lifts margins faster than expected.", "State and local IT spending accelerates.", "Lower rates sustain premium software multiples.", "Acquisitions add growth and cross-sell." ], "ticker": "TYL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Low-double-digit growth and modest margin gains support fair value near 28x EBIT.", "target_price": 292 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Budget delays and derating push valuation toward 24x EBIT.", "target_price": 245 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Cloud acceleration and easing rates preserve a premium multiple.", "target_price": 360 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 10.5, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 18.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Public-sector recurring revenue", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cloud migration and upsell", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Bookings conversion pace", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Premium valuation compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Government budget cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "M&A integration discipline", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses a blended EV/EBIT and FCF cross-check from snapshot fundamentals; assumptions imply ~28x terminal EV/EBIT on 18.5% EBIT margin and 8.5% WACC. I did not use sell-side targets; snapshot quote fields remain authoritative. 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weighted scenarios yield ~17% expected return supporting BUY. not investment advice\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "High PE ratio risks multiple compression", "Delays in government procurement cycles", "Acquisition integration execution risk", "Cybersecurity threats to critical systems", "Slower public sector IT spending" ], "ticker": "TYL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Steady growth and margins continue.", "target_price": 390 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Growth slows and multiples contract.", "target_price": 290 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated adoption drives outperformance.", "target_price": 480 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 30, "ebit_margin_target": 0.19 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Public sector digitalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Recurring revenue stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple contraction", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Government budget constraints", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Acquisition integration success", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition in govtech space", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic impact on tax revenues", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT target, WACC and terminal multiple; weighted scenarios yield ~17% expected return supporting BUY. not investment advice", "current_price": 327.88, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant in public sector software market", "Recurring revenue ensures high visibility", "Operating leverage expands EBIT margins", "Premium valuation caps near-term upside", "M&A track record supports inorganic growth" ], "target_price_6m": 355, "target_price_12m": 390 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TYL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 327.88,\n \"target_price_6m\": 345,\n \"target_price_12m\": 365,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable demand for govtech software solutions\",\n \"Recurring revenue supports consistent growth\",\n \"Margin expansion from operating leverage\",\n \"High PE valuation caps near-term upside\",\n \"Strong FCF enables acquisitions and innovation\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Public sector IT budgets\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Recurring revenue stability\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EBIT margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Valuation multiple contraction\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Government procurement delays\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"M&A integration success\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n …" } ], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "6db10056-b157-94aa-adc3-3ac1f364f20b", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16767, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.270Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3300, "outputTokens": 3050, "costUsd": 0.05565 } } ] } }