{ "run": { "id": "cmnr150ul062ep658yx710ljr", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr150tv062ap65890orfjbc", "ticker": "ROST", "snapshotId": "cmnr150u2062cp658s7piv4ap", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.586Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr150u2062cp658s7piv4ap", "assetId": "cmnr150tv062ap65890orfjbc", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 219.2, "price": 224.47, "dayLow": 219.2, "volume": 3039025, "dayHigh": 224.6, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 216.34, "week52Low": 124.36, "week52High": 224.6 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 28.3258258258258, "beta": 0.935137421979199, "epsTTM": 6.66, "fcfTTM": 2221135000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.04716981132075469, "revenueYoy": 0.07673449738014453 }, "sector": "Retail-Family Clothing Stores", "margins": { "net": 0.09428533162635697, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1190017792529845 }, "website": "https://rossstores.com", "industry": "Retail", "pegRatio": 6.00507507507509, "ebitdaTTM": 3394800000, "forwardPe": 25.7718579234973, "marketCap": 43685150538, "totalCash": 4594392000, "totalDebt": 2017349000, "debtEquity": 0.326039205532883, "quickRatio": 0.9893339382413748, "revenueTTM": 22750559000, "companyName": "ROSS STORES, INC.", "priceToBook": 5.66958726237243, "currentRatio": 1.582724696406598, "dividendYield": 0.00868749422469216, "returnOnAssets": 0.1379561568248276, "returnOnEquity": 0.34667697140806, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Ross Stores, Inc., operating under the brand name Ross Dress for Less, is an American chain of discount department stores headquartered in Dublin, California. It is the largest off-price retailer in the U.S.; as of July 2024, Ross operates 1,795 stores in 43 U.S. states, Washington, D.C. Puerto Rico and Guam, covering much of the country, but with no presence in New England and Alaska. The company also operates DD's Discounts, a discount department store chain with over 353 locations across the United States, most of which are located in Sun Belt states.", "enterpriseValue": 58209760000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 88100, "sharesOutstanding": 322356795, "enterpriseToEbitda": 17.14674207611641, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.558607900579498, "operatingCashflowTTM": 3026883000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.571Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr150un062gp658ea010h4r", "runId": "cmnr150ul062ep658yx710ljr", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ROST\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":224.47,\"target_price_6m\":228,\"target_price_12m\":232,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Off-price leader benefits from consumer trade-down in uncertain macro\",\"Valuation stretched at 28x P/E with only ~5% EPS growth\",\"Trading at 52-week high limits near-term risk/reward asymmetry\",\"Strong balance sheet with net cash and robust 35% ROE\",\"Tariff headwinds could pressure COGS given import-heavy sourcing\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Consumer trade-down to value retail amid macro uncertainty\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New store openings driving low-single-digit revenue growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated P/E of 28x vs mid-single-digit EPS growth (PEG ~6x)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff impact on imported apparel cost of goods\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong free cash flow ($2.2B TTM) supporting buybacks and dividends\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive intensity from TJX, Burlington, and e-commerce discounters\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Inventory management expertise enabling opportunistic buying\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin at 11.9%, room for modest expansion\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Tariff escalation materially raising COGS on imported goods\",\"Multiple compression if earnings growth fails to accelerate\",\"Consumer spending slowdown beyond trade-down benefit\",\"Wage inflation and occupancy cost pressures on margins\",\"Execution risk on aggressive store expansion plans\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.125,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":185,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Multiple compresses to 25x on decelerating earnings amid tariff and margin headwinds.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":232,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady mid-single-digit growth with current premium multiple largely maintained.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":270,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Trade-down accelerates, margin expansion drives EPS beat, multiple re-rates higher.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended P/E and EV/EBITDA valuation anchored to snapshot fundamentals. TTM P/E of 28.3x at 4.7% EPS growth yields PEG of ~6x, signaling full valuation. Base case assumes 5-6% EPS growth and stable multiple yielding ~3% 12M return, squarely in HOLD territory. Probability-weighted expected value (~$229) confirms limited upside. No sell-side targets used as numeric inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Tariff escalation materially raising COGS on imported goods", "Multiple compression if earnings growth fails to accelerate", "Consumer spending slowdown beyond trade-down benefit", "Wage inflation and occupancy cost pressures on margins", "Execution risk on aggressive store expansion plans" ], "ticker": "ROST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady mid-single-digit growth with current premium multiple largely maintained.", "target_price": 232 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Multiple compresses to 25x on decelerating earnings amid tariff and margin headwinds.", "target_price": 185 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Trade-down accelerates, margin expansion drives EPS beat, multiple re-rates higher.", "target_price": 270 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.125 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Consumer trade-down to value retail amid macro uncertainty", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New store openings driving low-single-digit revenue growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated P/E of 28x vs mid-single-digit EPS growth (PEG ~6x)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tariff impact on imported apparel cost of goods", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong free cash flow ($2.2B TTM) supporting buybacks and dividends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity from TJX, Burlington, and e-commerce discounters", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Inventory management expertise enabling opportunistic buying", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin at 11.9%, room for modest expansion", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended P/E and EV/EBITDA valuation anchored to snapshot fundamentals. TTM P/E of 28.3x at 4.7% EPS growth yields PEG of ~6x, signaling full valuation. Base case assumes 5-6% EPS growth and stable multiple yielding ~3% 12M return, squarely in HOLD territory. Probability-weighted expected value (~$229) confirms limited upside. No sell-side targets used as numeric inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 224.47, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Off-price leader benefits from consumer trade-down in uncertain macro", "Valuation stretched at 28x P/E with only ~5% EPS growth", "Trading at 52-week high limits near-term risk/reward asymmetry", "Strong balance sheet with net cash and robust 35% ROE", "Tariff headwinds could pressure COGS given import-heavy sourcing" ], "target_price_6m": 228, "target_price_12m": 232 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 48745, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.586Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3656, "outputTokens": 2252, "costUsd": 0.07458 } }, { "id": "cmnr150un062jp6581c4xcvxc", "runId": "cmnr150ul062ep658yx710ljr", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF_Relative_Valuation_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ROST\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 224.47,\n \"target_price_6m\": 228,\n \"target_price_12m\": 230,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Off-price retail model shows resilience in economic cycles.\",\n \"High current valuation limits near-term upside potential.\",\n \"Steady revenue growth supported by store expansion.\",\n \"Margin pressures from wage inflation and supply chain costs.\",\n \"Balanced risk-reward with modest expected returns.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Strong brand and customer loyalty in off-price segment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Ongoing store openings and market penetration\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost control and inventory management efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Elevated valuation multiples compared to historical averages\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Intense competition from TJX and other retailers\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic headwinds affecting discretionary spending\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing consumer discretionary income.\",\n \"Increased competition leading to margin compression.\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions affecting inventory and costs.\",\n \"Valuation correction if growth expectations are not met.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.065,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.12,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 200, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Lower growth and multiple contraction due to economic slowdown.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 230, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable valuation multiples.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 260, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated growth and multiple expansion from market share gains.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margin targets. Recommendation reflects modest upside balanced by high current valuation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "DCF_Relative_Valuation_Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing consumer discretionary income.", "Increased competition leading to margin compression.", "Supply chain disruptions affecting inventory and costs.", "Valuation correction if growth expectations are not met." ], "ticker": "ROST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable valuation multiples.", "target_price": 230 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Lower growth and multiple contraction due to economic slowdown.", "target_price": 200 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated growth and multiple expansion from market share gains.", "target_price": 260 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.12 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Strong brand and customer loyalty in off-price segment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Ongoing store openings and market penetration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost control and inventory management efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated valuation multiples compared to historical averages", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Intense competition from TJX and other retailers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic headwinds affecting discretionary spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margin targets. Recommendation reflects modest upside balanced by high current valuation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 224.47, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Off-price retail model shows resilience in economic cycles.", "High current valuation limits near-term upside potential.", "Steady revenue growth supported by store expansion.", "Margin pressures from wage inflation and supply chain costs.", "Balanced risk-reward with modest expected returns." ], "target_price_6m": 228, "target_price_12m": 230 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 345, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.586Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2157, "outputTokens": 4564, "costUsd": 0.002521 } }, { "id": "cmnr150un062hp6585gek6cdq", "runId": "cmnr150ul062ep658yx710ljr", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_ROST\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ROST\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 224.47,\n \"target_price_6m\": 220.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 215.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.70,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Resilient off-price model provides strong consumer value proposition during uncertain macroeconomic conditions.\",\n \"Current valuation at 26x forward P/E fully prices in near-term execution and growth prospects.\",\n \"EPS growth of 4.7% YoY lags historical averages, making the 6.0 PEG ratio stretched.\",\n \"Strong ROE of 34.7% and healthy $2.2B FCF provide solid downside support.\",\n \"We initiate at HOLD, awaiting a better entry point or re-acceleration in earnings growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Comparable store sales growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer discretionary spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Inventory availability and closeouts\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Freight and supply chain costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Store expansion in Sun Belt\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wage inflation and SG&A pressure\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Multiple compression if EPS growth remains in the mid-single digits.\",\n \"Increased promotional activity from full-price retailers capturing market share.\",\n \"Macroeconomic pressures disproportionately affecting lower-income core consumers.\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions impacting inventory flow and merchandising.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.115,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 180.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Consumer weakness and margin pressure lead to multiple compression to 20x.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 215.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady mid-single-digit growth sustains current operations but limits multiple expansion.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 250.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Stronger-than-expected closeout availability and market share gains drive EPS beat.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blended DCF and historical P/E multiple analysis. The 12M target of $215 implies a slight contraction from the current 28x P/E, reflecting mature growth rates. Expected return is -4.2%, supporting a HOLD rating. This is not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_ROST", "risks": [ "Multiple compression if EPS growth remains in the mid-single digits.", "Increased promotional activity from full-price retailers capturing market share.", "Macroeconomic pressures disproportionately affecting lower-income core consumers.", "Supply chain disruptions impacting inventory flow and merchandising." ], "ticker": "ROST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady mid-single-digit growth sustains current operations but limits multiple expansion.", "target_price": 215 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Consumer weakness and margin pressure lead to multiple compression to 20x.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Stronger-than-expected closeout availability and market share gains drive EPS beat.", "target_price": 250 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.115 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Comparable store sales growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Inventory availability and closeouts", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Freight and supply chain costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Store expansion in Sun Belt", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wage inflation and SG&A pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blended DCF and historical P/E multiple analysis. The 12M target of $215 implies a slight contraction from the current 28x P/E, reflecting mature growth rates. Expected return is -4.2%, supporting a HOLD rating. This is not investment advice.", "current_price": 224.47, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Resilient off-price model provides strong consumer value proposition during uncertain macroeconomic conditions.", "Current valuation at 26x forward P/E fully prices in near-term execution and growth prospects.", "EPS growth of 4.7% YoY lags historical averages, making the 6.0 PEG ratio stretched.", "Strong ROE of 34.7% and healthy $2.2B FCF provide solid downside support.", "We initiate at HOLD, awaiting a better entry point or re-acceleration in earnings growth." ], "target_price_6m": 220, "target_price_12m": 215 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22572, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.586Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2519, "outputTokens": 871, "costUsd": 0.01549 } }, { "id": "cmnr150un062fp658ndvajupu", "runId": "cmnr150ul062ep658yx710ljr", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ROST\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":224.47,\"target_price_6m\":214,\"target_price_12m\":236,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"High-quality off-price model remains resilient in uneven consumer demand.\",\"Solid cash generation and net cash support buybacks and flexibility.\",\"Store expansion still offers steady unit-growth runway.\",\"Margins are healthy, limiting easy upside from further normalization.\",\"Valuation near 52-week highs caps expected 12-month return.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Comparable sales momentum\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Store expansion pipeline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Merchandise margin discipline\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer trade-down behavior\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Wage and occupancy inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple starting point\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Buybacks and cash deployment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Inventory availability from vendors\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Consumer slowdown reduces traffic and basket size.\",\"Promotional or freight pressure compresses merchandise margins.\",\"Execution missteps in new store openings or dd's Discounts.\",\"Rich valuation leaves limited downside cushion if comps soften.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.065,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.123,\"wacc\":0.081,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":188,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Comps slow, costs rise, and the multiple de-rates.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":236,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady openings and modest comp growth support limited upside.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":272,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Traffic stays strong and buying advantages lift earnings faster.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended 12M valuation using normalized earnings/EBIT cross-check and scenario weighting; snapshot quote/fundamentals kept authoritative. No sell-side targets used as inputs. High-quality business, but current multiple near highs limits expected return, so HOLD. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Consumer slowdown reduces traffic and basket size.", "Promotional or freight pressure compresses merchandise margins.", "Execution missteps in new store openings or dd's Discounts.", "Rich valuation leaves limited downside cushion if comps soften." ], "ticker": "ROST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady openings and modest comp growth support limited upside.", "target_price": 236 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Comps slow, costs rise, and the multiple de-rates.", "target_price": 188 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Traffic stays strong and buying advantages lift earnings faster.", "target_price": 272 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.081, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.123 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Comparable sales momentum", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Store expansion pipeline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Merchandise margin discipline", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer trade-down behavior", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wage and occupancy inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple starting point", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Buybacks and cash deployment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inventory availability from vendors", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended 12M valuation using normalized earnings/EBIT cross-check and scenario weighting; snapshot quote/fundamentals kept authoritative. No sell-side targets used as inputs. High-quality business, but current multiple near highs limits expected return, so HOLD. not investment advice", "current_price": 224.47, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "High-quality off-price model remains resilient in uneven consumer demand.", "Solid cash generation and net cash support buybacks and flexibility.", "Store expansion still offers steady unit-growth runway.", "Margins are healthy, limiting easy upside from further normalization.", "Valuation near 52-week highs caps expected 12-month return." ], "target_price_6m": 214, "target_price_12m": 236 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0902f602bc871eeb0069d75d091a508190aa4314a2292321fb", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 36803, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.586Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2426, "outputTokens": 1884, "costUsd": 0.030621 } }, { "id": "cmnr150un062ip65802jik4mm", "runId": "cmnr150ul062ep658yx710ljr", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ROST\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 224.47,\n \"target_price_6m\": 235,\n \"target_price_12m\": 252,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Off-price leader benefits from value-seeking consumers\",\n \"Consistent store expansion supports revenue growth\",\n \"Strong cash flow and ROE demonstrate efficiency\",\n \"High valuation with PEG over 6x caps upside\",\n \"Resilient model faces competition and macro risks\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Value-driven consumer behavior\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New store openings\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Same-store sales momentum\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating margin trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from TJX and Walmart\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macro pressures on spending\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply chain efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost inflation impact\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession reducing traffic\",\n \"Heightened competition eroding share\",\n \"Failure to sustain margin targets\",\n \"Inventory missteps and markdown pressure\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.125,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n 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