{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14qyf05ftp658tyrsvs7f", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14qxs05fmp6581m5hpsor", "ticker": "NTRS", "snapshotId": "cmnr14qy405fpp658ladv8dwp", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:31.765Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14qy405fpp658ladv8dwp", "assetId": "cmnr14qxs05fmp6581m5hpsor", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "open": null, "price": 151.74, "dayLow": 148.89, "volume": 1171417, "dayHigh": 151.915, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 145.63, "week52Low": 83.02, "week52High": 157.6 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 15.5569476082005, "beta": 1.07598504699832, "epsTTM": 8.78, "fcfTTM": 4780100000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.1040816326530613, "revenueYoy": -0.02460677410016405 }, "sector": "State Commercial Banks", "margins": { "net": 0.2147927384250099, "gross": null, "operating": null }, "website": "https://www.northerntrust.com/", "industry": "Financial services", "pegRatio": -1.49468712314083, "ebitdaTTM": 5353800000, "forwardPe": 13.7691532258065, "marketCap": 24100000000, "totalCash": 5873100000, "totalDebt": null, "debtEquity": null, "quickRatio": null, "revenueTTM": 8086400000, "companyName": "NORTHERN TRUST CORP", "priceToBook": 2.01711641325678, "currentRatio": null, "dividendYield": 0.0229745717309687, "returnOnAssets": 0.00980564288807205, "returnOnEquity": 0.134041781461502, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Northern Trust Corporation is an American financial services company headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, that caters to corporations, institutional investors, and ultra high net worth individuals. Northern Trust is one of the largest banking institutions in the United States and one of the oldest banks in continuous operation. As of December 31, 2025, it had $1.8 trillion in assets under management and $14.9 trillion in assets under custody. Northern Trust Corporation is incorporated in Delaware.", "enterpriseValue": null, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 25000, "sharesOutstanding": 185827803, "enterpriseToEbitda": null, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": null, "operatingCashflowTTM": 5533500000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:31.756Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14qyi05fvp658bjk9eiuv", "runId": "cmnr14qyf05ftp658tyrsvs7f", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"NTRS\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":151.74,\"target_price_6m\":155.5,\"target_price_12m\":159.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Fee-based trust bank with $1.8T AUM and $14.9T AUC\",\"Forward P/E of ~13.8 implies meaningful EPS recovery from TTM $8.78\",\"TTM EPS declined 10.4% YoY, revenue down 2.5% — recovery uncertain\",\"Stock trading near 52-week high of $157.60 limits near-term upside\",\"Solid 2.3% dividend yield provides moderate total return cushion\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AUM/AUC growth driven by equity market performance\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net interest income sensitivity to rate environment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee compression pressure in custody and asset servicing\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Expense discipline and technology investment payoff\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Wealth management organic growth from UHNW clients\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"TTM EPS and revenue YoY declines signal recent headwinds\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital return via dividends and buybacks\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive threats from larger custodians and fintechs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Equity market downturn materially reduces AUM-linked fee revenue\",\"Prolonged rate cuts compress net interest income\",\"Regulatory capital requirements tighten, limiting buybacks\",\"Key client losses in institutional custody business\",\"Macro slowdown reduces wealth management inflows\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":4.0,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.28,\"wacc\":10.5,\"terminal_multiple\":14.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":125.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Market correction cuts AUM fees; NII declines on aggressive rate cuts.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":159.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Modest earnings recovery to ~$11 EPS; stable fee growth and margins.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":185.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong AUM inflows, expense leverage, and buybacks drive EPS above $12.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward EPS (~$11) x 14.5x P/E. P/B of 2.0x vs 13.4% ROE is fair for a trust bank. 12M price return of ~4.8% plus 2.3% dividend yield = ~7% total return, but mixed EPS/revenue trends and proximity to 52-wk high warrant HOLD given uncertainty. Assumptions: revenue_cagr_3y = total revenue growth; ebit_margin_target = pre-tax margin proxy; wacc = cost of equity; terminal_multiple = normalized P/E. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Equity market downturn materially reduces AUM-linked fee revenue", "Prolonged rate cuts compress net interest income", "Regulatory capital requirements tighten, limiting buybacks", "Key client losses in institutional custody business", "Macro slowdown reduces wealth management inflows" ], "ticker": "NTRS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Modest earnings recovery to ~$11 EPS; stable fee growth and margins.", "target_price": 159 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Market correction cuts AUM fees; NII declines on aggressive rate cuts.", "target_price": 125 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong AUM inflows, expense leverage, and buybacks drive EPS above $12.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 10.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM/AUC growth driven by equity market performance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest income sensitivity to rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee compression pressure in custody and asset servicing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Expense discipline and technology investment payoff", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wealth management organic growth from UHNW clients", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "TTM EPS and revenue YoY declines signal recent headwinds", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital return via dividends and buybacks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive threats from larger custodians and fintechs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward EPS (~$11) x 14.5x P/E. P/B of 2.0x vs 13.4% ROE is fair for a trust bank. 12M price return of ~4.8% plus 2.3% dividend yield = ~7% total return, but mixed EPS/revenue trends and proximity to 52-wk high warrant HOLD given uncertainty. Assumptions: revenue_cagr_3y = total revenue growth; ebit_margin_target = pre-tax margin proxy; wacc = cost of equity; terminal_multiple = normalized P/E. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 151.74, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Fee-based trust bank with $1.8T AUM and $14.9T AUC", "Forward P/E of ~13.8 implies meaningful EPS recovery from TTM $8.78", "TTM EPS declined 10.4% YoY, revenue down 2.5% — recovery uncertain", "Stock trading near 52-week high of $157.60 limits near-term upside", "Solid 2.3% dividend yield provides moderate total return cushion" ], "target_price_6m": 155.5, "target_price_12m": 159 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 38978, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:31.765Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3559, "outputTokens": 1952, "costUsd": 0.066595 } }, { "id": "cmnr14qyi05fyp65821u1vthj", "runId": "cmnr14qyf05ftp658tyrsvs7f", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"NTRS\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 151.74,\n \"target_price_6m\": 155,\n \"target_price_12m\": 160,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable asset management revenue.\",\n \"Recent growth challenges but improving.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair relative to peers.\",\n \"Dividend yield offers downside protection.\",\n \"Operational efficiencies may boost margins.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"AUM growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Client retention\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technological investment\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing assets under management.\",\n \"Increased competition from financial technology firms.\",\n \"Rising regulatory compliance costs.\",\n \"Sensitivity to interest rate changes.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.20,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 140, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Market downturn leads to asset outflows.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 160, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady growth and margin improvements.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 180, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong market performance and new business wins.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E and industry comps. HOLD due to fair value and limited upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing assets under management.", "Increased competition from financial technology firms.", "Rising regulatory compliance costs.", "Sensitivity to interest rate changes." ], "ticker": "NTRS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth and margin improvements.", "target_price": 160 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Market downturn leads to asset outflows.", "target_price": 140 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong market performance and new business wins.", "target_price": 180 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Client retention", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Technological investment", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E and industry comps. HOLD due to fair value and limited upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 151.74, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable asset management revenue.", "Recent growth challenges but improving.", "Valuation appears fair relative to peers.", "Dividend yield offers downside protection.", "Operational efficiencies may boost margins." ], "target_price_6m": 155, "target_price_12m": 160 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 375, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:31.765Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2077, "outputTokens": 3664, "costUsd": 0.00212 } }, { "id": "cmnr14qyi05fwp6581oy16tvt", "runId": "cmnr14qyf05ftp658tyrsvs7f", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"NTRS\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 151.74,\n \"target_price_6m\": 154.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 157.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Dominant position in institutional custody and ultra-high-net-worth wealth management services.\",\n \"Significant operating leverage potential from ongoing technology and productivity optimization programs.\",\n \"Revenue sensitivity to global equity market levels remains a primary growth driver.\",\n \"Net interest income faces headwinds from shifting deposit mix and pricing pressure.\",\n \"Strong capital position supports consistent dividend payouts and opportunistic share repurchases.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global Equity Market Performance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Net Interest Margin Stability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Assets Under Custody Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Expense Management Efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory Compliance Costs\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wealth Management Client Retention\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged equity market downturn reducing fee-based revenue.\",\n \"Rapidly rising deposit betas impacting net interest income.\",\n \"Increased competition from low-cost index providers and fintechs.\",\n \"Operational risks associated with large-scale technology migrations.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 4.5,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 28.0,\n \"wacc\": 9.5,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 130.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Market correction and sharp NIM compression.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 157.50,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate market growth and successful cost control.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 185.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong equity rally and significant margin expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation utilizes a 14.5x forward P/E multiple on FY27 earnings estimates. HOLD rating reflects a balanced risk-reward profile with the current price trading near intrinsic value. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "Prolonged equity market downturn reducing fee-based revenue.", "Rapidly rising deposit betas impacting net interest income.", "Increased competition from low-cost index providers and fintechs.", "Operational risks associated with large-scale technology migrations." ], "ticker": "NTRS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate market growth and successful cost control.", "target_price": 157.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Market correction and sharp NIM compression.", "target_price": 130 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong equity rally and significant margin expansion.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4.5, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global Equity Market Performance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net Interest Margin Stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Assets Under Custody Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Expense Management Efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Compliance Costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Wealth Management Client Retention", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation utilizes a 14.5x forward P/E multiple on FY27 earnings estimates. HOLD rating reflects a balanced risk-reward profile with the current price trading near intrinsic value. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 151.74, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant position in institutional custody and ultra-high-net-worth wealth management services.", "Significant operating leverage potential from ongoing technology and productivity optimization programs.", "Revenue sensitivity to global equity market levels remains a primary growth driver.", "Net interest income faces headwinds from shifting deposit mix and pricing pressure.", "Strong capital position supports consistent dividend payouts and opportunistic share repurchases." ], "target_price_6m": 154, "target_price_12m": 157.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 14525, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:31.765Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2353, "outputTokens": 777, "costUsd": 0.01403 } }, { "id": "cmnr14qyi05fup658nor1r55u", "runId": "cmnr14qyf05ftp658tyrsvs7f", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"NTRS\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":151.74,\"target_price_6m\":156,\"target_price_12m\":159,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Fee revenues should benefit from firmer markets and mandate wins.\",\"Net interest income likely normalizes as rates and deposit mix evolve.\",\"Custody scale and wealthy-client franchise support durable mid-teens ROE.\",\"Valuation looks fair: forward P/E reasonable, but price-to-book already full.\",\"Recent EPS and revenue declines limit multiple expansion upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Equity market levels\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Custody and AUM flows\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"NII stabilization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Deposit repricing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Expense discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee rate pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Wealth management growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory capital demands\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Faster NII compression from lower rates or deposit competition.\",\"Market downturn cuts asset-based servicing and wealth fees.\",\"Higher technology and compliance spending pressures margins.\",\"Operational or regulatory issues in trust and custody businesses.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.31,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":14.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":128,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rates fall faster and weaker markets pressure fees and NII.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":159,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Modest fee growth and stable costs offset gradual NII normalization.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":178,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger markets, mandate wins, and better expense control lift earnings.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative. 12M target is a blended earnings-power and valuation view, with terminal_multiple treated as normalized forward P/E anchor; no sell-side targets used. Mixed fundamentals and <6% upside support HOLD. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Faster NII compression from lower rates or deposit competition.", "Market downturn cuts asset-based servicing and wealth fees.", "Higher technology and compliance spending pressures margins.", "Operational or regulatory issues in trust and custody businesses." ], "ticker": "NTRS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest fee growth and stable costs offset gradual NII normalization.", "target_price": 159 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rates fall faster and weaker markets pressure fees and NII.", "target_price": 128 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger markets, mandate wins, and better expense control lift earnings.", "target_price": 178 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.31 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Equity market levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Custody and AUM flows", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "NII stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Deposit repricing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Expense discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee rate pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Wealth management growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory capital demands", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative. 12M target is a blended earnings-power and valuation view, with terminal_multiple treated as normalized forward P/E anchor; no sell-side targets used. Mixed fundamentals and <6% upside support HOLD. not investment advice", "current_price": 151.74, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Fee revenues should benefit from firmer markets and mandate wins.", "Net interest income likely normalizes as rates and deposit mix evolve.", "Custody scale and wealthy-client franchise support durable mid-teens ROE.", "Valuation looks fair: forward P/E reasonable, but price-to-book already full.", "Recent EPS and revenue declines limit multiple expansion upside." ], "target_price_6m": 156, "target_price_12m": 159 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0641e76b7ada4b620069d75be81b70819681adfef2d5946e23", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 44713, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:31.765Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2345, "outputTokens": 2480, "costUsd": 0.038824 } }, { "id": "cmnr14qyi05fxp658rxeklgae", "runId": "cmnr14qyf05ftp658tyrsvs7f", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"NTRS\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 151.74,\n \"target_price_6m\": 162,\n \"target_price_12m\": 172,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong custody franchise with $14.9T AUC base.\",\n \"Fee income benefits from AUM growth over time.\",\n \"Recent negative revenue and EPS trends show pressure.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 13.8x appears reasonable vs history.\",\n \"Rate environment supports net interest income.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Custody and asset servicing fees\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"AUM growth from market levels\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Equity market volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory and compliance costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global economic conditions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition in wealth mgmt\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Market declines reducing AUM and fees\",\n \"Lower interest rates compressing NIM\",\n \"Geopolitical events disrupting custody ops\",\n \"Cyber risks to client assets and data\",\n \"Intensified competition from peers\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.27,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 128,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged weak markets and rate cuts hurt fees.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 172,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable AUM growth with moderate margin expansion.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 198,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong inflows, rising markets and higher rates.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation anchored on 6% revenue CAGR, 27% EBIT margin target, 8.5% WACC and 14.5x terminal multiple. Balanced thesis reflects mixed growth but reasonable valuation supporting modest upside. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Market declines reducing AUM and fees", "Lower interest rates compressing NIM", "Geopolitical events disrupting custody ops", "Cyber risks to client assets and data", "Intensified competition from peers" ], "ticker": "NTRS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable AUM growth with moderate margin expansion.", "target_price": 172 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Prolonged weak markets and rate cuts hurt fees.", "target_price": 128 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong inflows, rising markets and higher rates.", "target_price": 198 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.27 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Custody and asset servicing fees", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AUM growth from market levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Equity market volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and compliance costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global economic conditions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition in wealth mgmt", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on 6% revenue CAGR, 27% EBIT margin target, 8.5% WACC and 14.5x terminal multiple. Balanced thesis reflects mixed growth but reasonable valuation supporting modest upside. not investment advice.", "current_price": 151.74, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong custody franchise with $14.9T AUC base.", "Fee income benefits from AUM growth over time.", "Recent negative revenue and EPS trends show pressure.", "Forward P/E of 13.8x appears reasonable vs history.", "Rate environment supports net interest income." ], "target_price_6m": 162, "target_price_12m": 172 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "faf4275d-c43d-9512-af14-7929ac1c6ae8", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18402, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:31.765Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2685, "outputTokens": 3406, "costUsd": 0.059145 } } ] } }