{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14g1c04rsp658x9tgut3b", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14g0t04rmp658iitulp5f", "ticker": "LDOS", "snapshotId": "cmnr14g1204rqp6588io48ydo", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:17.614Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14g1204rqp6588io48ydo", "assetId": "cmnr14g0t04rmp658iitulp5f", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 160.64, "dayLow": 157.69, "volume": 509428, "dayHigh": 161.895, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 158.87, "week52Low": 130.35, "week52High": 205.77 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 13.6103896103896, "beta": 1.01147502917409, "epsTTM": 3.85, "fcfTTM": -315000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.2083333333333335, "revenueYoy": 0.03072860400912255 }, "sector": "Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design", "margins": { "net": 0.0843134971468499, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1228019098637475 }, "website": "http://leidos.com", "industry": "National security", "pegRatio": 0.227784992784993, "ebitdaTTM": 1053000000, "forwardPe": 11.2931034482759, "marketCap": 21002965945, "totalCash": 1108000000, "totalDebt": 4648000000, "debtEquity": 0.944377267230955, "quickRatio": 1.349840820657941, "revenueTTM": 17174000000, "companyName": "Leidos Holdings, Inc.", "priceToBook": 1.17901952019073, "currentRatio": 1.702865228157057, "dividendYield": 0.0245184773267277, "returnOnAssets": 0.1073149040243089, "returnOnEquity": 0.175634824667473, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Leidos Holdings, Inc. is an American defense, aviation, information technology, and biomedical research company headquartered in Reston, Virginia, that provides scientific, engineering, systems integration, and technical services. Founded as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Leidos merged with Lockheed Martin's IT sector, Information Systems & Global Solutions (Lockheed Martin IS&GS), in August 2016 to create the defense industry’s largest IT services provider. The Leidos-Lockheed Martin merger is one of the biggest transactions thus far in the consolidation of the defense sector. Leidos contracts extensively with the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Intelligence Community, as well as other U.S. government agencies and select commercial markets.", "enterpriseValue": 10709400000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 47000, "sharesOutstanding": 126392684, "enterpriseToEbitda": 10.17037037037037, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0.6235821590776756, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1750000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:17.607Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14g1f04rup6589fs0258m", "runId": "cmnr14g1c04rsp658x9tgut3b", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"claude-sonnet-4-20250514\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"LDOS\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":160.64,\"target_price_6m\":174.0,\"target_price_12m\":184.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward PE of 11.3x undervalues defense IT leader with 20% EPS growth\",\"PEG ratio of 0.23 signals significant undervaluation relative to earnings growth\",\"Strong operating cash flow of $1.75B supports debt service and dividends\",\"Government IT modernization and cybersecurity spending provide secular tailwinds\",\"Negative FCF of -$315M and elevated debt warrant caution near-term\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"US defense and intelligence IT budget trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward EPS growth implied by forward PE compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin stability at 12.3%\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative free cash flow trailing twelve months\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt of ~$3.5B constraining capital flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Government efficiency initiatives (DOGE) spending reviews\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Cybersecurity and digital modernization contract pipeline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield of 2.45% provides income floor\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Government spending cuts or continuing resolutions delaying contract awards\",\"Negative FCF may persist if capex or working capital needs remain elevated\",\"Competition from other defense IT primes compressing win rates and margins\",\"Potential contract re-competes or protests on large programs\",\"Rising interest rates increasing cost of $4.6B debt load\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.125,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":13.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":135.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"DOGE-driven budget cuts reduce contract awards; margins compress below 11%.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":184.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady 4-5% revenue growth with stable margins; market re-rates to ~13x forward PE.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":220.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Major contract wins accelerate growth; FCF normalizes and multiple expands toward 15x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward PE (11.3x) vs sector comps (13-15x). Implied forward EPS ~$14.2; base target applies ~13x multiple. Negative FCF is key concern offsetting low PEG. EV in snapshot ($10.7B) appears inconsistent with mktcap+debt-cash (~$24.5B); used fundamentals directionally only. Sell-side targets not used as numeric inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514", "risks": [ "Government spending cuts or continuing resolutions delaying contract awards", "Negative FCF may persist if capex or working capital needs remain elevated", "Competition from other defense IT primes compressing win rates and margins", "Potential contract re-competes or protests on large programs", "Rising interest rates increasing cost of $4.6B debt load" ], "ticker": "LDOS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady 4-5% revenue growth with stable margins; market re-rates to ~13x forward PE.", "target_price": 184 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "DOGE-driven budget cuts reduce contract awards; margins compress below 11%.", "target_price": 135 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Major contract wins accelerate growth; FCF normalizes and multiple expands toward 15x.", "target_price": 220 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 13, "ebit_margin_target": 0.125 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "US defense and intelligence IT budget trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward EPS growth implied by forward PE compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin stability at 12.3%", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative free cash flow trailing twelve months", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net debt of ~$3.5B constraining capital flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Government efficiency initiatives (DOGE) spending reviews", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cybersecurity and digital modernization contract pipeline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield of 2.45% provides income floor", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward PE (11.3x) vs sector comps (13-15x). 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Not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.64, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward PE of 11.3x undervalues defense IT leader with 20% EPS growth", "PEG ratio of 0.23 signals significant undervaluation relative to earnings growth", "Strong operating cash flow of $1.75B supports debt service and dividends", "Government IT modernization and cybersecurity spending provide secular tailwinds", "Negative FCF of -$315M and elevated debt warrant caution near-term" ], "target_price_6m": 174, "target_price_12m": 184 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 41511, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:17.614Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3680, "outputTokens": 1827, "costUsd": 0.064075 } }, { "id": "cmnr14g1f04rxp6587g9463z5", "runId": "cmnr14g1c04rsp658x9tgut3b", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Analyst_Model_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LDOS\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 160.64,\n \"target_price_6m\": 168.7,\n \"target_price_12m\": 176.7,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable government contracts provide revenue visibility.\",\n \"Improving margins through cost efficiencies.\",\n \"Growth in defense and IT spending.\",\n \"Strong cash flow generation supports investments.\",\n \"Moderate valuation with upside potential.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Defense budget increases\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"IT integration demand\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt levels manageable\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Revenue growth modest\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"FCF negative recently\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competitive landscape\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory risks\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Acquisitions potential\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Dependence on government contracts\",\n \"Cybersecurity threats\",\n \"Economic downturns reducing spending\",\n \"Execution risks in projects\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.13,\n \"wacc\": 0.073,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 11.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 150.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Lower growth and multiple contraction.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 176.7, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and stable multiples.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 190.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Higher growth and multiple expansion.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with growth and margin assumptions. 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BUY due to 10% upside and fair valuation. 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The probability-weighted expected return of 22.1% justifies a STRONG_BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch-Pro-v1", "risks": [ "Potential delays in US federal budget approvals or continuing resolutions impacting contract awards.", "Intense competition for cleared technical talent driving up labor costs and squeezing margins.", "High debt load ($4.65B) increasing interest expense vulnerability in a higher-for-longer rate environment.", "Negative TTM free cash flow requires monitoring to ensure it is a temporary working capital issue." ], "ticker": "LDOS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady IT modernization spending and margin stability drive earnings growth.", "target_price": 195 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Budget cuts and margin compression lead to multiple contraction.", "target_price": 145 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated defense spending and successful debt reduction expand multiples.", "target_price": 230 } }, "confidence": 0.8, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 13.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.125 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "US Defense Budget Allocations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Federal IT Modernization Trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin Expansion Initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative Free Cash Flow Reversal", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt Servicing Costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Contract Win Rates & Book-to-Bill", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wage Inflation for Cleared IT Talent", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of EV/EBITDA and forward P/E multiples, supported by a DCF model. The probability-weighted expected return of 22.1% justifies a STRONG_BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.64, "recommendation": "STRONG_BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Undemanding valuation at 11.3x forward P/E offers an attractive entry point for a defense prime.", "Strong 12.3% operating margins demonstrate effective cost controls and high-value contract execution.", "Robust 20.8% YoY EPS growth highlights operational efficiency despite sluggish 3% top-line expansion.", "Negative TTM FCF presents near-term optical risk, but operating cash flow remains strong at $1.75B.", "Elevated government IT modernization and defense spending provide a durable multi-year revenue tailwind." ], "target_price_6m": 178, "target_price_12m": 195 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: ultra_buy_scenario_return_too_low: STRONG_BUY requires >= 20% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch-Pro-v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LDOS\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 160.64,\n \"target_price_6m\": 178.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 195.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"STRONG_BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.80,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Undemanding valuation at 11.3x forward P/E offers an attractive entry point for a defense prime.\",\n \"Strong 12.3% operating margins demonstrate effective cost controls and high-value contract execution.\",\n \"Robust 20.8% YoY EPS growth highlights operational efficiency despite sluggish 3% top-line expansion.\",\n \"Negative TTM FCF presents a near-term liquidity optical risk but operating cash flow remains strong.\",\n \"Elevated government IT modernization and defense spending provide a durable multi-year revenue tailwind.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"US Defense Budget Allocations\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Federal IT Modernization Trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin Expansion Initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\"…" } ], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 27788, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:17.614Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3211, "outputTokens": 624, "costUsd": 0.01391 } }, { "id": "cmnr14g1f04rtp658pfgtqy3c", "runId": "cmnr14g1c04rsp658x9tgut3b", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"LDOS\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":160.64,\"target_price_6m\":170,\"target_price_12m\":176,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Backlog-rich federal exposure supports resilient mid-single-digit revenue growth.\",\"Margin expansion and mix shift can outpace modest top-line growth.\",\"Valuation looks undemanding for a mission-critical defense IT franchise.\",\"Strong operating cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and deleveraging.\",\"Negative free cash flow and contract timing temper near-term upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Defense and intel spending\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Large program awards\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin improvement\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cash conversion recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt reduction\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Contract recompetes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Budget delays or CRs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Civil/aviation softness\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"U.S. budget delays or procurement pauses\",\"Major contract loss or protest\",\"Free cash flow remains weak\",\"Execution issues on large programs\",\"Cyber incident or performance penalties\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.2,\"ebit_margin_target\":13.1,\"wacc\":8.9,\"terminal_multiple\":12},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":145,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Budget delays and recompetes pressure growth and margins.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":176,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady awards and modest margin gains support a rerating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":198,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Classified demand and cash conversion exceed conservative assumptions.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a conservative scenario-weighted earnings-power/DCF blend centered on mid-single-digit revenue growth and modest margin expansion. Snapshot PE and EV fields conflict with price/EPS and cap structure, so they were not used directly; quote fields follow snapshot. Recommendation reflects about 10% 12M upside; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "U.S. budget delays or procurement pauses", "Major contract loss or protest", "Free cash flow remains weak", "Execution issues on large programs", "Cyber incident or performance penalties" ], "ticker": "LDOS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady awards and modest margin gains support a rerating.", "target_price": 176 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Budget delays and recompetes pressure growth and margins.", "target_price": 145 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Classified demand and cash conversion exceed conservative assumptions.", "target_price": 198 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.9, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.2, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 13.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Defense and intel spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Large program awards", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin improvement", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cash conversion recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Contract recompetes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Budget delays or CRs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Civil/aviation softness", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses a conservative scenario-weighted earnings-power/DCF blend centered on mid-single-digit revenue growth and modest margin expansion. Snapshot PE and EV fields conflict with price/EPS and cap structure, so they were not used directly; quote fields follow snapshot. Recommendation reflects about 10% 12M upside; not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.64, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Backlog-rich federal exposure supports resilient mid-single-digit revenue growth.", "Margin expansion and mix shift can outpace modest top-line growth.", "Valuation looks undemanding for a mission-critical defense IT franchise.", "Strong operating cash flow supports dividends, buybacks, and deleveraging.", "Negative free cash flow and contract timing temper near-term upside." ], "target_price_6m": 170, "target_price_12m": 176 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0740b8556c60b5710069d75ac2e890819583a38237dd7ba25f", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 46099, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:17.614Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2450, "outputTokens": 2683, "costUsd": 0.041849 } }, { "id": "cmnr14g1f04rwp658a7hwlb95", "runId": "cmnr14g1c04rsp658x9tgut3b", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LDOS\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 160.64,\n \"target_price_6m\": 172,\n \"target_price_12m\": 185,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable gov contracts ensure revenue visibility\",\n \"Defense budget growth from geopolitical risks\",\n \"Forward P/E 11.3x attractive vs history\",\n \"Negative FCF raises working capital concerns\",\n \"High debt may limit flexibility ahead\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Gov contract stability\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rising defense budgets\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"IT/biomed diversification\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Negative FCF trend\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt burden\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Contract bidding competition\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Federal budget cuts or sequestration\",\n \"Contract award delays\",\n \"Cost inflation on fixed bids\",\n \"Cybersecurity breaches\",\n \"Integration risk from acquisitions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.135,\n \"wacc\": 0.082,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 13\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 135,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Spending cuts reduce growth and margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 185,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady contracts and modest margin gains.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 225,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Major wins and efficiency drive upside.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using rev CAGR, target EBIT, WACC and terminal mult. 15% implied upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Federal budget cuts or sequestration", "Contract award delays", "Cost inflation on fixed bids", "Cybersecurity breaches", "Integration risk from acquisitions" ], "ticker": "LDOS", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady contracts and modest margin gains.", "target_price": 185 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Spending cuts reduce growth and margins.", "target_price": 135 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Major wins and efficiency drive upside.", "target_price": 225 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 13, "ebit_margin_target": 0.135 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Gov contract stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rising defense budgets", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "IT/biomed diversification", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF trend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt burden", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Contract bidding competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using rev CAGR, target EBIT, WACC and terminal mult. 15% implied upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.64, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable gov contracts ensure revenue visibility", "Defense budget growth from geopolitical risks", "Forward P/E 11.3x attractive vs history", "Negative FCF raises working capital concerns", "High debt may limit flexibility ahead" ], "target_price_6m": 172, "target_price_12m": 185 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "73f6984f-de4f-9e69-a979-80496c788b86", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19399, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:17.614Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2789, "outputTokens": 3068, "costUsd": 0.054387 } } ] } }