{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13hak03gsp658rucd0no4", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13gae03g4p658ftmkdt70", "ticker": "ED", "snapshotId": "cmnr13gv703g8p65853jqevgt", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:32.582Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13gv703g8p65853jqevgt", "assetId": "cmnr13gae03g4p658ftmkdt70", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 113.57, "dayLow": 111.06, "volume": 1752199, "dayHigh": 113.68, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 114.46, "week52Low": 94.96, "week52High": 116.23 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 17.547703180212, "beta": 0.178928845746317, "epsTTM": 5.66, "fcfTTM": 1304000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.07604562737642592, "revenueYoy": 0.1089407446250655 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": 0.1195767821255468, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1734838633408204 }, "website": "http://coned.com", "industry": "Energy", "pegRatio": 2.30752296819788, "ebitdaTTM": 3349000000, "forwardPe": 16.5257903494176, "marketCap": 36200000000, "totalCash": 1629000000, "totalDebt": 26301000000, "debtEquity": 1.087267465895, "quickRatio": 0.6368309646205019, "revenueTTM": 16918000000, "companyName": "CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC", "priceToBook": 0.478228221916848, "currentRatio": 1.020562443302087, "dividendYield": 0.0342001040764946, "returnOnAssets": 0.02711687197565782, "returnOnEquity": 0.0836295990078545, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Consolidated Edison, Inc., commonly known as Con Edison (stylized as conEdison) or ConEd, is an energy company based in New York City. It is one of the largest investor-owned energy companies in the United States, with approximately $15.26 billion in annual revenues as of 2024, and over $70 billion in assets. The company provides a wide range of energy-related products and services to its customers through its subsidiaries:", "enterpriseValue": 60168968000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 15097, "sharesOutstanding": 361247438, "enterpriseToEbitda": 17.96624902956106, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.55650596997281, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4800000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:32.035Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13ham03gup658rfxu5lgd", "runId": "cmnr13hak03gsp658rucd0no4", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ED\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":113.57,\"target_price_6m\":116.0,\"target_price_12m\":119.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility with predictable earnings and low beta of 0.18\",\"Dividend yield ~3.4% provides stable income floor for total return\",\"Trading near 52-week high ($116.23) limits near-term upside\",\"Debt/equity of 1.09 manageable but rising rates pressure cost of capital\",\"Earnings growth ~5-7% supports modest price appreciation over 12 months\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Regulated rate base growth supporting steady earnings increases\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate trajectory impacting utility sector valuations\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend consistency and 50+ year growth streak\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New York regulatory environment and rate case outcomes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capex on grid modernization and clean energy mandates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated total debt of $26.3B vs $1.6B cash\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward P/E of 16.5x in line with utility peer average\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin at 17.3% stable vs historical range\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Sustained higher interest rates compress utility multiples and raise refinancing costs\",\"Adverse regulatory decisions in New York rate proceedings\",\"Storm or infrastructure costs requiring unrecoverable capex\",\"Execution risk on grid modernization and electrification investments\",\"Political or regulatory changes affecting allowed ROE\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.035,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.065,\"terminal_multiple\":18.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":100.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Higher-for-longer rates compress utility P/E to ~15x with flat earnings.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":119.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady 5-6% EPS growth, P/E holds near 17.5x, supportive rate outcomes.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":132.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rate cuts boost utility sector, favorable rate case lifts ROE and earnings.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Utility DDM/earnings-power approach: TTM EPS $5.66 grown 5-6% to ~$6.00, applied 18x terminal P/E for $108-$119 fair range. Added dividend yield ~3.4% for total return ~8%. Near 52-wk high with fair multiples vs peers => HOLD. 12M price return of ~4.8% within HOLD range. Forward P/E implies higher EPS which may include non-recurring items; used conservative organic growth. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Sustained higher interest rates compress utility multiples and raise refinancing costs", "Adverse regulatory decisions in New York rate proceedings", "Storm or infrastructure costs requiring unrecoverable capex", "Execution risk on grid modernization and electrification investments", "Political or regulatory changes affecting allowed ROE" ], "ticker": "ED", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady 5-6% EPS growth, P/E holds near 17.5x, supportive rate outcomes.", "target_price": 119 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Higher-for-longer rates compress utility P/E to ~15x with flat earnings.", "target_price": 100 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rate cuts boost utility sector, favorable rate case lifts ROE and earnings.", "target_price": 132 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulated rate base growth supporting steady earnings increases", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate trajectory impacting utility sector valuations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend consistency and 50+ year growth streak", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New York regulatory environment and rate case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex on grid modernization and clean energy mandates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated total debt of $26.3B vs $1.6B cash", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Forward P/E of 16.5x in line with utility peer average", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating margin at 17.3% stable vs historical range", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Utility DDM/earnings-power approach: TTM EPS $5.66 grown 5-6% to ~$6.00, applied 18x terminal P/E for $108-$119 fair range. Added dividend yield ~3.4% for total return ~8%. Near 52-wk high with fair multiples vs peers => HOLD. 12M price return of ~4.8% within HOLD range. Forward P/E implies higher EPS which may include non-recurring items; used conservative organic growth. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 113.57, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility with predictable earnings and low beta of 0.18", "Dividend yield ~3.4% provides stable income floor for total return", "Trading near 52-week high ($116.23) limits near-term upside", "Debt/equity of 1.09 manageable but rising rates pressure cost of capital", "Earnings growth ~5-7% supports modest price appreciation over 12 months" ], "target_price_6m": 116, "target_price_12m": 119 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 45363, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:32.582Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3603, "outputTokens": 2141, "costUsd": 0.07154 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ham03gxp658fgh30z76", "runId": "cmnr13hak03gsp658rucd0no4", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI Model v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ED\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 113.57,\n \"target_price_6m\": 114.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 115.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Stable regulatory environment supports cash flows.\", \"Attractive dividend yield with consistent history.\", \"Low beta provides defensive market characteristics.\", \"Revenue growth from infrastructure investments.\", \"Valuation fair relative to historical multiples.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate approvals\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Energy demand trends\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Capital expenditure efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt management\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend policy stability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic growth in service area\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Regulatory risks from rate case delays.\", \"Interest rate sensitivity affecting costs.\", \"Climate change impacts on infrastructure.\", \"Competition from renewable energy sources.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.175,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 110.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Regulatory headwinds and higher rates pressure valuation.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 115.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Stable growth and maintained multiples lead to modest appreciation.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 120.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Favorable rate cases and lower rates drive upside.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with growth and multiple assumptions. Expected return near zero, hence HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI Model v1", "risks": [ "Regulatory risks from rate case delays.", "Interest rate sensitivity affecting costs.", "Climate change impacts on infrastructure.", "Competition from renewable energy sources." ], "ticker": "ED", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable growth and maintained multiples lead to modest appreciation.", "target_price": 115 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Regulatory headwinds and higher rates pressure valuation.", "target_price": 110 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable rate cases and lower rates drive upside.", "target_price": 120 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.175 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory rate approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy demand trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital expenditure efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt management", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend policy stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic growth in service area", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with growth and multiple assumptions. Expected return near zero, hence HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 113.57, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulatory environment supports cash flows.", "Attractive dividend yield with consistent history.", "Low beta provides defensive market characteristics.", "Revenue growth from infrastructure investments.", "Valuation fair relative to historical multiples." ], "target_price_6m": 114.5, "target_price_12m": 115 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 391, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:32.582Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2123, "outputTokens": 3893, "costUsd": 0.00223 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ham03gvp658ijcxytsw", "runId": "cmnr13hak03gsp658rucd0no4", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ED\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 113.57,\n \"target_price_6m\": 114.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 116.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.70,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"ED offers defensive stability with a low 0.18 beta and reliable 3.4% dividend yield.\",\n \"Valuation appears full at 17.5x P/E, limiting significant near-term upside potential.\",\n \"New York's clean energy transition provides a long-term runway for rate base capital deployment.\",\n \"Regulatory environment remains a mixed bag, requiring careful navigation of consumer affordability concerns.\",\n \"We initiate at HOLD, viewing the current risk/reward profile as balanced at these levels.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"New York rate case outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic interest rate trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Clean energy transition capex\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"O&M cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Extreme weather event frequency\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt refinancing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory decisions by the NYPSC limiting allowed ROE.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates compressing utility valuation multiples.\",\n \"Execution risks and cost overruns on large-scale clean energy infrastructure projects.\",\n \"Storm-related outage costs exceeding regulatory recovery allowances.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.185,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 98.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Persistent high interest rates and adverse NYPSC rulings compress valuation multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 116.00,\n \"prob\": 0.60,\n \"notes\": \"Constructive rate outcomes and steady 6% rate base growth support modest capital appreciation.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 128.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated electrification mandates drive higher allowed capex and premium valuation multiples.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 16.5x forward P/E applied to estimated NTM earnings, cross-checked with a dividend discount model. Recommendation is HOLD due to limited upside (+2.1%) to our 12M target, reflecting a fair valuation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory decisions by the NYPSC limiting allowed ROE.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates compressing utility valuation multiples.", "Execution risks and cost overruns on large-scale clean energy infrastructure projects.", "Storm-related outage costs exceeding regulatory recovery allowances." ], "ticker": "ED", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Constructive rate outcomes and steady 6% rate base growth support modest capital appreciation.", "target_price": 116 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Persistent high interest rates and adverse NYPSC rulings compress valuation multiples.", "target_price": 98 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Accelerated electrification mandates drive higher allowed capex and premium valuation multiples.", "target_price": 128 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.185 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "New York rate case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic interest rate trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Clean energy transition capex", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "O&M cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Extreme weather event frequency", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt refinancing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 16.5x forward P/E applied to estimated NTM earnings, cross-checked with a dividend discount model. Recommendation is HOLD due to limited upside (+2.1%) to our 12M target, reflecting a fair valuation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 113.57, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "ED offers defensive stability with a low 0.18 beta and reliable 3.4% dividend yield.", "Valuation appears full at 17.5x P/E, limiting significant near-term upside potential.", "New York's clean energy transition provides a long-term runway for rate base capital deployment.", "Regulatory environment remains a mixed bag, requiring careful navigation of consumer affordability concerns.", "We initiate at HOLD, viewing the current risk/reward profile as balanced at these levels." ], "target_price_6m": 114.5, "target_price_12m": 116 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 29218, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:32.582Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2477, "outputTokens": 856, "costUsd": 0.015226 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ham03gtp658owhqyp68", "runId": "cmnr13hak03gsp658rucd0no4", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ED\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":113.57,\"target_price_6m\":108.00,\"target_price_12m\":110.00,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Defensive regulated utility with stable earnings and low beta.\",\"Rate-base investment supports steady but modest earnings growth.\",\"Shares trade near 52-week highs, limiting valuation upside.\",\"Higher debt and interest costs constrain equity value expansion.\",\"Dividend yield supports downside, but total return looks average.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate-base growth in NYC utility\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive New York regulation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Higher interest expense\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"High leverage profile\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Electrification-driven load growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Defensive dividend appeal\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Storm and outage costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated capex requirements\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse New York rate decisions\",\"Higher-for-longer rates compress utility multiples\",\"Storm costs or capital overruns\",\"Customer affordability and demand softness\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":3.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":18,\"wacc\":6.8,\"terminal_multiple\":11.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":98,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rates stay high and regulatory recovery lags planned spending.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":110,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady regulated growth and dividend support offset valuation headwinds.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":122,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Better rate outcomes and lower yields lift utility valuations.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Targets use a utility-style blend of forward earnings, EV/EBITDA and dividend support versus higher-rate headwinds. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used. With about -3% 12M implied return, rating is HOLD; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Adverse New York rate decisions", "Higher-for-longer rates compress utility multiples", "Storm costs or capital overruns", "Customer affordability and demand softness" ], "ticker": "ED", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady regulated growth and dividend support offset valuation headwinds.", "target_price": 110 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rates stay high and regulatory recovery lags planned spending.", "target_price": 98 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Better rate outcomes and lower yields lift utility valuations.", "target_price": 122 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 6.8, "revenue_cagr_3y": 3.5, "terminal_multiple": 11.5, "ebit_margin_target": 18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate-base growth in NYC utility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive New York regulation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Higher interest expense", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "High leverage profile", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Electrification-driven load growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Defensive dividend appeal", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Storm and outage costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Elevated capex requirements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Targets use a utility-style blend of forward earnings, EV/EBITDA and dividend support versus higher-rate headwinds. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used. With about -3% 12M implied return, rating is HOLD; not investment advice.", "current_price": 113.57, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Defensive regulated utility with stable earnings and low beta.", "Rate-base investment supports steady but modest earnings growth.", "Shares trade near 52-week highs, limiting valuation upside.", "Higher debt and interest costs constrain equity value expansion.", "Dividend yield supports downside, but total return looks average." ], "target_price_6m": 108, "target_price_12m": 110 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0f50dd5ce93e32cc0069d758806004819092768cefbd0324e6", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 27521, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:32.582Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2394, "outputTokens": 1399, "costUsd": 0.023775 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ham03gwp658c1o9af10", "runId": "cmnr13hak03gsp658rucd0no4", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ED\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 113.57,\n \"target_price_6m\": 115.2,\n \"target_price_12m\": 118.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable regulated operations provide earnings predictability\",\n \"Solid dividend yield appeals to income-focused investors\",\n \"Low beta enhances defensive qualities in volatile markets\",\n \"High leverage exposes to interest rate fluctuations\",\n \"Current valuation at 17.5x P/E appears fairly valued\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate base growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rates\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Energy demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Infrastructure capex\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Political shifts\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather events\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse rate case decisions\",\n \"Rising interest costs on debt\",\n \"Aging infrastructure failures\",\n \"Extreme weather disruptions\",\n \"Regulatory transition risks\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.175,\n \"wacc\": 0.055,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 103,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory setbacks and higher rates reduce valuation.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 118.5,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady growth and dividends support fair value.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 133,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Favorable rates and regulation drive re-rating.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple; targets reflect modest upside from current levels. HOLD per rubric as expected return ~4%. Consensus not used in targets. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Adverse rate case decisions", "Rising interest costs on debt", "Aging infrastructure failures", "Extreme weather disruptions", "Regulatory transition risks" ], "ticker": "ED", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth and dividends support fair value.", "target_price": 118.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Regulatory setbacks and higher rates reduce valuation.", "target_price": 103 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable rates and regulation drive re-rating.", "target_price": 133 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.055, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 0.175 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Infrastructure capex", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Political shifts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Weather events", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple; targets reflect modest upside from current levels. HOLD per rubric as expected return ~4%. Consensus not used in targets. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 113.57, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated operations provide earnings predictability", "Solid dividend yield appeals to income-focused investors", "Low beta enhances defensive qualities in volatile markets", "High leverage exposes to interest rate fluctuations", "Current valuation at 17.5x P/E appears fairly valued" ], "target_price_6m": 115.2, "target_price_12m": 118.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "75030a3a-1428-93e1-aa86-eff3b6a2d570", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21180, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:32.582Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2733, "outputTokens": 3881, "costUsd": 0.066414 } } ] } }