{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12cwl021qp658lc56s6nd", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12cvm021mp658zxoszs43", "ticker": "AME", "snapshotId": "cmnr12cw6021op658mi9cq389", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:40.243Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12cw6021op658mi9cq389", "assetId": "cmnr12cvm021mp658zxoszs43", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 230.49, "dayLow": 224.21, "volume": 1314004, "dayHigh": 231.9, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 217.75, "week52Low": 148.3, "week52High": 242.05 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 31.9797507788162, "beta": 0.837082508704073, "epsTTM": 6.42, "fcfTTM": 1487891000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.07899159663865542, "revenueYoy": 0.06626193240918692 }, "sector": "Industrial Instruments For Measurement, Display, and Control", "margins": { "net": 0.1999890286816204, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2581120198629504 }, "website": "http://ametek.com", "industry": "Conglomerate", "pegRatio": 4.04850036455227, "ebitdaTTM": 2242827000, "forwardPe": 25.504347826087, "marketCap": 41800000000, "totalCash": 457951000, "totalDebt": 3492284000, "debtEquity": 0.328568474329994, "quickRatio": 0.5548173037957584, "revenueTTM": 7401116000, "companyName": "AMETEK INC/", "priceToBook": 4.45150557363748, "currentRatio": 1.062295268809942, "dividendYield": 0.00603086604788628, "returnOnAssets": 0.09211999619356862, "returnOnEquity": 0.139257860681361, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "AMETEK, Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate and global designer and manufacturer of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices with headquarters in the United States and over 150 sites worldwide.", "enterpriseValue": 50348433120, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 21500, "sharesOutstanding": 228977202, "enterpriseToEbitda": 22.44864767545602, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 6.802816375260163, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1801763000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:40.230Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12cwq021sp658smi7bnmr", "runId": "cmnr12cwl021qp658lc56s6nd", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AME\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":230.49,\"target_price_6m\":236,\"target_price_12m\":242,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium industrial compounder with strong 25.8% operating margins\",\"Mid-single-digit organic growth limits upside at 32x trailing P/E\",\"Proven M&A playbook supports long-term EPS compounding\",\"PEG ratio of 4.05 signals rich valuation relative to growth rate\",\"FCF yield of ~3.6% provides floor but limited near-term catalyst\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Organic revenue growth in EIG and EMG segments\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Bolt-on M&A pipeline execution and integration\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operational excellence driving margin expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated valuation multiple vs historical average\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial cycle sensitivity to macro slowdown\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Steady FCF generation supporting debt paydown and buybacks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff and trade policy uncertainty on global operations\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Diversified end-market exposure reducing concentration risk\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Multiple compression if growth decelerates below mid-single digits\",\"Macro recession impacting industrial capital spending\",\"Acquisition integration risk or overpayment for targets\",\"Rising interest rates increasing cost of debt-funded M&A\",\"Foreign exchange headwinds from strong USD on international revenues\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.065,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.265,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":195,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Multiple contracts to ~27x trailing on macro slowdown and flattish EPS growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":242,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady mid-single-digit growth with modest multiple stability near 30x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":278,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accretive M&A plus organic acceleration lifts EPS to ~$8.50, multiple holds.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation: forward P/E (25-30x on est. 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FY forward EPS ~$7.50-$9.00) cross-checked with EV/EBITDA (20-24x). At $230 stock prices in ~31x TTM EPS with PEG >4, limiting upside to ~5% on 12M horizon. Base case aligns with HOLD per rubric (-6% to +6% expected return). Scenario-weighted EV ~$239. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 230.49, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium industrial compounder with strong 25.8% operating margins", "Mid-single-digit organic growth limits upside at 32x trailing P/E", "Proven M&A playbook supports long-term EPS compounding", "PEG ratio of 4.05 signals rich valuation relative to growth rate", "FCF yield of ~3.6% provides floor but limited near-term catalyst" ], "target_price_6m": 236, "target_price_12m": 242 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 44480, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:40.243Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3558, "outputTokens": 1666, "costUsd": 0.05944 } }, { "id": "cmnr12cwq021vp65862zdbbl4", "runId": "cmnr12cwl021qp658lc56s6nd", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Discounted_Cash_Flow_and_Comparables\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 230.49,\n \"target_price_6m\": 235.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 240.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Stable growth in industrial instruments sector.\", \"Strong margins and cash flow generation.\", \"High valuation multiples may limit upside.\", \"Moderate revenue and earnings growth expected.\", \"Balanced risk-reward profile at current levels.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Revenue growth from industrial demand\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"EBIT margin maintenance\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Valuation multiple contraction risk\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt levels manageable\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Market position in niche segments\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Economic cycle sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Acquisition strategy execution\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Technological innovation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic downturn reducing industrial spending.\", \"Intense competition in instruments market.\", \"Integration risks from acquisitions.\", \"Foreign exchange fluctuations.\", \"Regulatory changes.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.07,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.26,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 210.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Slower growth and multiple compression.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 240.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and stable multiples.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 260.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong execution and market expansion.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margins. Recommendation reflects limited upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Discounted_Cash_Flow_and_Comparables", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing industrial spending.", "Intense competition in instruments market.", "Integration risks from acquisitions.", "Foreign exchange fluctuations.", "Regulatory changes." ], "ticker": "AME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth and stable multiples.", "target_price": 240 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Slower growth and multiple compression.", "target_price": 210 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong execution and market expansion.", "target_price": 260 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.26 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue growth from industrial demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin maintenance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple contraction risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt levels manageable", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market position in niche segments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Acquisition strategy execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Technological innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margins. Recommendation reflects limited upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 230.49, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable growth in industrial instruments sector.", "Strong margins and cash flow generation.", "High valuation multiples may limit upside.", "Moderate revenue and earnings growth expected.", "Balanced risk-reward profile at current levels." ], "target_price_6m": 235, "target_price_12m": 240 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 363, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:40.243Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2073, "outputTokens": 3500, "costUsd": 0.00205 } }, { "id": "cmnr12cwq021tp658x65p1rh2", "runId": "cmnr12cwl021qp658lc56s6nd", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Base\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 230.49,\n \"target_price_6m\": 232.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 235.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.70,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Premium valuation (25.5x forward P/E) fully prices in AMETEK's consistent M&A-driven growth model.\",\n \"Strong FCF margin (~20%) provides ample dry powder for continued bolt-on acquisitions.\",\n \"Operating margins of 25.8% reflect excellent pricing power in niche industrial and aerospace markets.\",\n \"High PEG ratio (4.05) limits multiple expansion potential without significant organic growth acceleration.\",\n \"Defensive profile (0.84 beta) offers downside protection, but current price leaves limited upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"M&A capital deployment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Organic revenue growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Aerospace & Defense end-market demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Industrial automation trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Valuation multiple compression\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Overpaying for acquisitions diluting ROIC.\",\n \"Integration missteps in newly acquired businesses.\",\n \"Cyclical downturn in broader industrial end-markets.\",\n \"Multiple contraction due to high starting PEG ratio.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.065,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.265,\n \"wacc\": 0.082,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 180.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"M&A pipeline dries up and organic growth slows, leading to multiple contraction.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 235.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution of niche acquisitions and mid-single-digit organic growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 270.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Accretive mega-deal and margin expansion drive earnings beat and multiple re-rating.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Base case assumes 26x forward P/E on estimated $9.00 EPS. High PEG limits upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Base", "risks": [ "Overpaying for acquisitions diluting ROIC.", "Integration missteps in newly acquired businesses.", "Cyclical downturn in broader industrial end-markets.", "Multiple contraction due to high starting PEG ratio." ], "ticker": "AME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady execution of niche acquisitions and mid-single-digit organic growth.", "target_price": 235 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "M&A pipeline dries up and organic growth slows, leading to multiple contraction.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accretive mega-deal and margin expansion drive earnings beat and multiple re-rating.", "target_price": 270 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.265 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "M&A capital deployment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Organic revenue growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Aerospace & Defense end-market demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial automation trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Base case assumes 26x forward P/E on estimated $9.00 EPS. High PEG limits upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 230.49, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium valuation (25.5x forward P/E) fully prices in AMETEK's consistent M&A-driven growth model.", "Strong FCF margin (~20%) provides ample dry powder for continued bolt-on acquisitions.", "Operating margins of 25.8% reflect excellent pricing power in niche industrial and aerospace markets.", "High PEG ratio (4.05) limits multiple expansion potential without significant organic growth acceleration.", "Defensive profile (0.84 beta) offers downside protection, but current price leaves limited upside." ], "target_price_6m": 232, "target_price_12m": 235 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22577, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:40.243Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2422, "outputTokens": 864, "costUsd": 0.015212 } }, { "id": "cmnr12cwq021rp658vs9slgk0", "runId": "cmnr12cwl021qp658lc56s6nd", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AME\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":230.49,\"target_price_6m\":223,\"target_price_12m\":236,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"High margins and recurring aftermarket support resilient earnings quality.\",\"Organic growth remains solid but not enough to justify a premium expansion.\",\"Balance sheet is manageable, preserving optionality for acquisitions.\",\"Valuation already discounts much of the quality and execution consistency.\",\"Mixed risk-reward suggests limited 12-month upside from current levels.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Organic instrument demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Aftermarket/service mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Acquisition integration\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial end-market softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin discipline\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest expense/refinancing\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"FX and global exposure\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Industrial demand slows more than expected.\",\"Acquisition pipeline underdelivers or integration slips.\",\"Valuation de-rates despite stable fundamentals.\",\"Currency headwinds pressure reported growth.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.27,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":21},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":198,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Multiple compresses as growth slows and orders soften.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":236,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady mid-single-digit growth and stable margins support fair value.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":268,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger orders and successful M&A sustain premium valuation.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a blended forward earnings and EV/EBIT-style framework anchored to snapshot fundamentals; no sell-side targets used. 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Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Slowing industrial demand in recession", "Acquisition integration failures", "Increased competition in instruments", "Rising rates pressuring valuation", "Geopolitical supply chain risks" ], "ticker": "AME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on growth and margins continues.", "target_price": 255 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Weak economy leads to lower growth and de-rating.", "target_price": 185 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated demand and margin gains materialize.", "target_price": 310 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.27 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "M&A execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial production growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Aerospace defense demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic recession risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Multiple compression", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Product innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply chain issues", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 8% rev CAGR, 27% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, 22x terminal. 10% upside to base supports BUY; mixed valuation/growth limits conviction. 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