{ "run": { "id": "cmnr0l4sc01qqp658dfmurd8w", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr0l4rq01qmp658ngbbhkuh", "ticker": "AEE", "snapshotId": "cmnr0l4s201qop658u04eejnp", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:16.568Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr0l4s201qop658u04eejnp", "assetId": "cmnr0l4rq01qmp658ngbbhkuh", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 112.86, "dayLow": 110.13, "volume": 1376610, "dayHigh": 112.88, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 111.33, "week52Low": 91.77, "week52High": 113.93 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 18.5613382899628, "beta": 0.354743289652754, "epsTTM": 5.38, "fcfTTM": -1268000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.2144469525959369, "revenueYoy": 0.1542699724517906 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": 0.1660415956358677, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2302534378906694 }, "website": "http://ameren.com", "industry": "Utilities", "pegRatio": 0.865544511837213, "ebitdaTTM": 3537000000, "forwardPe": 18.6305970149254, "marketCap": 25948493142, "totalCash": 13000000, "totalDebt": 20074000000, "debtEquity": 1.49794791433475, "quickRatio": 0.1735346813411825, "revenueTTM": 8799000000, "companyName": "AMEREN CORP", "priceToBook": 0.613856240341787, "currentRatio": 0.6580496544663424, "dividendYield": 0.0284316712528779, "returnOnAssets": 0.03013862529911709, "returnOnEquity": 0.109021714797403, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Ameren Corporation is an American power company created December 31, 1997, by the merger of Union Electric Company (formerly NYSE: UEP) of St. Louis, Missouri and the neighboring Central Illinois Public Service Company (CIPSCO Inc. holding, formerly NYSE: CIP) of Springfield, Illinois. It is now a holding company for several power companies and energy companies. The company is based in St. Louis, with 2.4 million electric, and 900,000 natural gas customers across 64,000 square miles in central and eastern Missouri and the southern four-fifths of Illinois by area.", "enterpriseValue": 47073130000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 8913, "sharesOutstanding": 276424515, "enterpriseToEbitda": 13.30877297144473, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 5.349827253096943, "operatingCashflowTTM": 3353000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:16.562Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr0l4sf01qsp65837g768kp", "runId": "cmnr0l4sc01qqp658dfmurd8w", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AEE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":112.86,\"target_price_6m\":115.5,\"target_price_12m\":118.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility with steady rate base growth and visible earnings trajectory\",\"Trading near 52-week high limits near-term upside despite solid fundamentals\",\"Negative FCF reflects heavy capex cycle supporting long-term rate base expansion\",\"Dividend yield ~2.8% provides income but below utility peer average\",\"PEG of 0.87 and strong EPS growth partially offset premium valuation\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from ongoing infrastructure capex program\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory outcomes on allowed returns in Missouri and Illinois\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rising interest rates increasing embedded cost of ~$20B debt\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS growth momentum at 21% YoY supporting multiple\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF requiring continued capital market access\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory relationships in service territories\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta (0.35) offers defensive positioning in volatility\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt/equity of 1.50 limits balance sheet flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Unfavorable regulatory decisions reducing allowed ROE or disallowing capex recovery\",\"Sustained higher interest rates compressing utility valuations and raising funding costs\",\"Execution risk on large capex program leading to cost overruns\",\"Equity dilution from secondary offerings needed to fund infrastructure investment\",\"Severe weather or climate events causing unrecoverable costs\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.23,\"wacc\":0.065,\"terminal_multiple\":13.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":98.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Regulatory setbacks or rate-case disappointments compress multiples to ~17x forward EPS.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":118.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady 7% EPS growth with stable ~18.5x P/E plus dividend support.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":132.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerated rate base growth and favorable regulation push multiple toward 20x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Utility-focused valuation: forward EPS of ~$5.80 (7% growth) at 18.5-19x P/E yields $107-$110 base; adding rate base expansion premium and dividend support reaches $118. At current price near 52-week high, 12M price return ~4.6% + ~2.8% dividend = ~7.4% total return, but price-only return within HOLD band (-6% to +6%). PEG of 0.87 attractive but offset by negative FCF and leverage. Weighted scenario EV aligns with base target. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Unfavorable regulatory decisions reducing allowed ROE or disallowing capex recovery", "Sustained higher interest rates compressing utility valuations and raising funding costs", "Execution risk on large capex program leading to cost overruns", "Equity dilution from secondary offerings needed to fund infrastructure investment", "Severe weather or climate events causing unrecoverable costs" ], "ticker": "AEE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady 7% EPS growth with stable ~18.5x P/E plus dividend support.", "target_price": 118 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory setbacks or rate-case disappointments compress multiples to ~17x forward EPS.", "target_price": 98 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated rate base growth and favorable regulation push multiple toward 20x.", "target_price": 132 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 13.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth from ongoing infrastructure capex program", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory outcomes on allowed returns in Missouri and Illinois", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rising interest rates increasing embedded cost of ~$20B debt", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EPS growth momentum at 21% YoY supporting multiple", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF requiring continued capital market access", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Constructive regulatory relationships in service territories", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Low beta (0.35) offers defensive positioning in volatility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt/equity of 1.50 limits balance sheet flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Utility-focused valuation: forward EPS of ~$5.80 (7% growth) at 18.5-19x P/E yields $107-$110 base; adding rate base expansion premium and dividend support reaches $118. At current price near 52-week high, 12M price return ~4.6% + ~2.8% dividend = ~7.4% total return, but price-only return within HOLD band (-6% to +6%). PEG of 0.87 attractive but offset by negative FCF and leverage. Weighted scenario EV aligns with base target. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 112.86, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility with steady rate base growth and visible earnings trajectory", "Trading near 52-week high limits near-term upside despite solid fundamentals", "Negative FCF reflects heavy capex cycle supporting long-term rate base expansion", "Dividend yield ~2.8% provides income but below utility peer average", "PEG of 0.87 and strong EPS growth partially offset premium valuation" ], "target_price_6m": 115.5, "target_price_12m": 118 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 41572, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:16.568Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3642, "outputTokens": 2010, "costUsd": 0.06846 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l4sf01qvp65888nr7vrl", "runId": "cmnr0l4sc01qqp658dfmurd8w", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearchAI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AEE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 112.86,\n \"target_price_6m\": 109.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 110.16,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.\",\n \"Investment in renewable energy driving moderate growth.\",\n \"Earnings growth supported by regulatory rate cases.\",\n \"High debt levels increase financial risk exposure.\",\n \"Valuation near fair value with limited upside potential.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory environment changes\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate fluctuations\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Renewable energy investments\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Customer base growth\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating efficiency improvements\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt management and reduction\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend stability and yield\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Regulatory approval delays\", \"Rising interest rates increasing costs\", \"Extreme weather events impacting operations\", \"Economic downturn reducing demand\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.235,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 100.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Adverse regulation and high rates compress margins.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 110.16, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable utility operations.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 120.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Favorable rate cases and faster renewable adoption.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and WACC; target prices reflect limited upside; not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EquityResearchAI", "risks": [ "Regulatory approval delays", "Rising interest rates increasing costs", "Extreme weather events impacting operations", "Economic downturn reducing demand" ], "ticker": "AEE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable utility operations.", "target_price": 110.16 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Adverse regulation and high rates compress margins.", "target_price": 100 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable rate cases and faster renewable adoption.", "target_price": 120 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 12.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.235 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory environment changes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate fluctuations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Customer base growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating efficiency improvements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt management and reduction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend stability and yield", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and WACC; target prices reflect limited upside; not investment advice.", "current_price": 112.86, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.", "Investment in renewable energy driving moderate growth.", "Earnings growth supported by regulatory rate cases.", "High debt levels increase financial risk exposure.", "Valuation near fair value with limited upside potential." ], "target_price_6m": 109.5, "target_price_12m": 110.16 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 339, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:16.568Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2157, "outputTokens": 3380, "costUsd": 0.002024 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l4sf01qtp658u26wktj7", "runId": "cmnr0l4sc01qqp658dfmurd8w", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity-Analyzer-Pro\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AEE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 112.86,\n \"target_price_6m\": 113.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 115.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong EPS growth of 21.4% YoY reflects solid rate base expansion and execution.\",\n \"Trading near 52-week highs limits near-term multiple expansion potential.\",\n \"Dividend yield of 2.84% is relatively low compared to utility peers.\",\n \"Heavy capex drives negative FCF but supports long-term regulated earnings growth.\",\n \"Constructive regulatory environments in Missouri and Illinois provide earnings visibility.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate case outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capital expenditure execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center energy demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Inflationary cost pressures\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather normalization\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory decisions in upcoming Missouri or Illinois rate cases.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs on $20B debt load.\",\n \"Cost overruns on major transmission and generation infrastructure projects.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown reducing commercial and industrial power demand.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 95.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory pushback on rate cases and higher interest rates compress utility multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 115.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution of capital plan and constructive regulatory outcomes support modest upside.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 128.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated data center load growth in service territory drives higher EPS growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on an 18x forward P/E applied to normalized earnings, reflecting steady rate base growth offset by current premium valuation. Recommendation is HOLD as the stock is near fair value. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity-Analyzer-Pro", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory decisions in upcoming Missouri or Illinois rate cases.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs on $20B debt load.", "Cost overruns on major transmission and generation infrastructure projects.", "Macroeconomic slowdown reducing commercial and industrial power demand." ], "ticker": "AEE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady execution of capital plan and constructive regulatory outcomes support modest upside.", "target_price": 115 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Regulatory pushback on rate cases and higher interest rates compress utility multiples.", "target_price": 95 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated data center load growth in service territory drives higher EPS growth.", "target_price": 128 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital expenditure execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data center energy demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inflationary cost pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Weather normalization", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on an 18x forward P/E applied to normalized earnings, reflecting steady rate base growth offset by current premium valuation. Recommendation is HOLD as the stock is near fair value. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 112.86, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong EPS growth of 21.4% YoY reflects solid rate base expansion and execution.", "Trading near 52-week highs limits near-term multiple expansion potential.", "Dividend yield of 2.84% is relatively low compared to utility peers.", "Heavy capex drives negative FCF but supports long-term regulated earnings growth.", "Constructive regulatory environments in Missouri and Illinois provide earnings visibility." ], "target_price_6m": 113.5, "target_price_12m": 115 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25520, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:16.568Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2513, "outputTokens": 814, "costUsd": 0.014794 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l4sf01qrp658xej981f0", "runId": "cmnr0l4sc01qqp658dfmurd8w", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AEE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":112.86,\"target_price_6m\":108,\"target_price_12m\":116,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated rate-base growth supports steady EPS and dividend expansion.\",\"Recent EPS and revenue growth were strong, but likely normalize.\",\"Heavy capex depresses free cash flow yet builds future earnings base.\",\"High leverage and refinancing needs limit upside in higher-rate markets.\",\"Shares trade near highs, suggesting valuation is close to fair value.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Missouri and Illinois rate outcomes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Transmission and distribution capex\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Allowed ROE and rider recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate path\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Financing needs and debt costs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Weather and load normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend growth support\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Execution on grid reliability projects\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse regulatory rulings or recovery lag\",\"Higher-for-longer rates pressure utility multiples\",\"Capex overruns or storm-restoration costs\",\"Weak weather or industrial demand\",\"Potential equity issuance or dilution\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.2,\"ebit_margin_target\":24,\"wacc\":6.7,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":98,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Higher rates and regulatory lag compress valuation and slow earnings growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":116,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Rate-base growth and dividends largely offset financing and valuation pressure.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":128,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Constructive regulation and lower yields support a premium utility multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended regulated-utility valuation using mid-single-digit growth, dividend support and a terminal earnings multiple cross-check. Snapshot quote fields were used as authoritative; snapshot PE and EPS appear internally inconsistent, so targets rely on broader fundamentals. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory rulings or recovery lag", "Higher-for-longer rates pressure utility multiples", "Capex overruns or storm-restoration costs", "Weak weather or industrial demand", "Potential equity issuance or dilution" ], "ticker": "AEE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Rate-base growth and dividends largely offset financing and valuation pressure.", "target_price": 116 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Higher rates and regulatory lag compress valuation and slow earnings growth.", "target_price": 98 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Constructive regulation and lower yields support a premium utility multiple.", "target_price": 128 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 6.7, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.2, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Missouri and Illinois rate outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Transmission and distribution capex", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Allowed ROE and rider recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate path", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Financing needs and debt costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Weather and load normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth support", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Execution on grid reliability projects", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended regulated-utility valuation using mid-single-digit growth, dividend support and a terminal earnings multiple cross-check. Snapshot quote fields were used as authoritative; snapshot PE and EPS appear internally inconsistent, so targets rely on broader fundamentals. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 112.86, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated rate-base growth supports steady EPS and dividend expansion.", "Recent EPS and revenue growth were strong, but likely normalize.", "Heavy capex depresses free cash flow yet builds future earnings base.", "High leverage and refinancing needs limit upside in higher-rate markets.", "Shares trade near highs, suggesting valuation is close to fair value." ], "target_price_6m": 108, "target_price_12m": 116 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0cd76080bc64ed640069d73542fa488190a83874f20de2b72c", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 55069, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:16.568Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2429, "outputTokens": 2586, "costUsd": 0.040455 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l4sf01qup658kh6614f5", "runId": "cmnr0l4sc01qqp658dfmurd8w", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AEE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 112.86,\n \"target_price_6m\": 118,\n \"target_price_12m\": 124,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Robust rate base growth from grid investments\",\n \"Rising demand from data centers and electrification\",\n \"Predictable regulated cash flows support dividends\",\n \"Negative FCF persists due to heavy capex load\",\n \"18.6x P/E offers modest upside on execution\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate base expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center power demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate cases\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capex financing needs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend growth track\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Inflation cost recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory disallowance of costs\",\n \"Sustained high interest rates\",\n \"Capex execution delays\",\n \"Policy shifts on energy transition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.055,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.235,\n \"wacc\": 0.068,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory hurdles and high rates constrain returns.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 124,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady rate base growth and load additions materialize.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 150,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AI-driven demand exceeds forecasts.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 5.5% revenue CAGR, 23.5% EBIT margin, 6.8% WACC and 16.5x terminal multiple. Base case yields ~10% 12M return. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Regulatory disallowance of costs", "Sustained high interest rates", "Capex execution delays", "Policy shifts on energy transition" ], "ticker": "AEE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady rate base growth and load additions materialize.", "target_price": 124 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Regulatory hurdles and high rates constrain returns.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated AI-driven demand exceeds forecasts.", "target_price": 150 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.068, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.235 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data center power demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate cases", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capex financing needs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth track", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inflation cost recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather volatility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 5.5% revenue CAGR, 23.5% EBIT margin, 6.8% WACC and 16.5x terminal multiple. Base case yields ~10% 12M return. not investment advice.", "current_price": 112.86, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Robust rate base growth from grid investments", "Rising demand from data centers and electrification", "Predictable regulated cash flows support dividends", "Negative FCF persists due to heavy capex load", "18.6x P/E offers modest upside on execution" ], "target_price_6m": 118, "target_price_12m": 124 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "4ba5e0cd-8fac-93fc-bbdd-825cab54de8c", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21610, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:16.568Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2766, "outputTokens": 3840, "costUsd": 0.065898 } } ] } }