{ "run": { "id": "cmnqz7rxj017op658if3g17ir", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqz7rx5017kp6581ie3mm8w", "ticker": "YDUQ3", "snapshotId": "cmnqz7rxb017mp658igwn2ty6", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:53.764Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqz7rxb017mp658igwn2ty6", "assetId": "cmnqz7rx5017kp6581ie3mm8w", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 12.6, "price": 11.89, "dayLow": 11.84, "volume": 4151700, "dayHigh": 12.67, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 11.94, "week52Low": 9.47, "week52High": 17.8 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 18.42553850922052, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 0.6516974, "fcfTTM": 775862000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 12.092355, "revenueYoy": 3.3606064 }, "sector": "Educação", "margins": { "net": 0.032630473, "gross": 0.6050102, "operating": 0.1607006 }, "website": "https://www.yduqs.com.br/", "industry": "Serviços Educacionais", "pegRatio": 0.014907318, "ebitdaTTM": 1702966000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 3081347267, "totalCash": 1478087000, "totalDebt": 6198856000, "debtEquity": 2.0885339, "quickRatio": 1.4060398, "revenueTTM": 5521740000, "companyName": "YDUQS Participacoes SA", "priceToBook": 1.0943083, "currentRatio": 1.4060398, "dividendYield": 0.09586204373423043, "returnOnAssets": 0.018164525, "returnOnEquity": 0.060705673, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A YDUQS Participações S.A. é um grupo brasileiro de educação com atuação em graduação, pós-graduação e cursos de educação continuada, operando instituições presenciais e plataformas digitais. A companhia mantém marcas voltadas a diferentes públicos e segmentos de formação, com foco em ensino superior e soluções educacionais de escala nacional.\n\nO modelo de negócios combina receitas de mensalidades e serviços acadêmicos, com operação distribuída entre unidades físicas, polos de ensino digital e canais de captação online. A empresa também expande oferta em cursos de saúde e medicina, além de programas corporativos e de educação executiva.\n\nListada na B3, a companhia integra o setor de educação e o segmento de serviços educacionais. A estratégia operacional concentra digitalização, retenção de alunos, eficiência de custos e gestão de portfólio de marcas para sustentar crescimento e geração …", "enterpriseValue": 7968722000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": null, "sharesOutstanding": 274088860, "enterpriseToEbitda": 4.6793194, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.4431541, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1372642000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:53.759Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqz7rxm017qp658a94znxs0", "runId": "cmnqz7rxj017op658if3g17ir", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"YDUQ3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":11.89,\"target_price_6m\":13.20,\"target_price_12m\":14.00,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"EV/EBITDA of 4.7x is cheap versus Brazilian education peers\",\"Strong FCF yield (~25%) supports deleveraging and dividends\",\"High leverage (net debt/EBITDA ~2.8x) limits equity upside in high-rate Brazil\",\"Thin 3.3% net margin masks 60% gross margin due to heavy interest burden\",\"EPS growth of 12% YoY signals improving operational efficiency\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Brazilian Selic rate trajectory impacting interest expense\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Student enrollment growth in digital and hybrid programs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Medicine and health course expansion driving premium mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Deleveraging from strong FCF generation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin improvement via digitalization and cost control\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from digital-native education platforms\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory risk in Brazilian higher education policy\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield near 9.6% providing downside support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Sustained high Selic rates could compress equity value given BRL 6.2B total debt\",\"Student default or churn increase during macroeconomic slowdown\",\"Regulatory changes to student financing programs (FIES equivalent)\",\"Competitive disruption from lower-cost digital education entrants\",\"Inability to sustainably improve net margins above 5%\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.145,\"terminal_multiple\":5.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":9.50,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rates stay elevated, margins stagnate, enrollment disappoints.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":14.00,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Gradual deleveraging, modest margin expansion and enrollment growth.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":18.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rate cuts accelerate, medicine portfolio drives premium mix and re-rating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"EV/EBITDA-anchored valuation with FCF crosscheck. Base assumes modest EBITDA growth to ~BRL 1.8B and re-rating from 4.7x to 5.2x with net debt declining to ~BRL 4.3B via FCF. High leverage in a high-rate environment caps confidence. PEG ratio in snapshot appears anomalous (0.015), not used. Sell-side targets not used as inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Sustained high Selic rates could compress equity value given BRL 6.2B total debt", "Student default or churn increase during macroeconomic slowdown", "Regulatory changes to student financing programs (FIES equivalent)", "Competitive disruption from lower-cost digital education entrants", "Inability to sustainably improve net margins above 5%" ], "ticker": "YDUQ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual deleveraging, modest margin expansion and enrollment growth.", "target_price": 14 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rates stay elevated, margins stagnate, enrollment disappoints.", "target_price": 9.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rate cuts accelerate, medicine portfolio drives premium mix and re-rating.", "target_price": 18 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.145, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 5.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazilian Selic rate trajectory impacting interest expense", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Student enrollment growth in digital and hybrid programs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Medicine and health course expansion driving premium mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Deleveraging from strong FCF generation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin improvement via digitalization and cost control", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from digital-native education platforms", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory risk in Brazilian higher education policy", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield near 9.6% providing downside support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "EV/EBITDA-anchored valuation with FCF crosscheck. Base assumes modest EBITDA growth to ~BRL 1.8B and re-rating from 4.7x to 5.2x with net debt declining to ~BRL 4.3B via FCF. High leverage in a high-rate environment caps confidence. PEG ratio in snapshot appears anomalous (0.015), not used. Sell-side targets not used as inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 11.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "EV/EBITDA of 4.7x is cheap versus Brazilian education peers", "Strong FCF yield (~25%) supports deleveraging and dividends", "High leverage (net debt/EBITDA ~2.8x) limits equity upside in high-rate Brazil", "Thin 3.3% net margin masks 60% gross margin due to heavy interest burden", "EPS growth of 12% YoY signals improving operational efficiency" ], "target_price_6m": 13.2, "target_price_12m": 14 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 54632, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:53.764Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3748, "outputTokens": 2328, "costUsd": 0.07694 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7rxm017tp658sed638tc", "runId": "cmnqz7rxj017op658if3g17ir", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Research_Model_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"YDUQ3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 11.89,\n \"target_price_6m\": 12.32,\n \"target_price_12m\": 12.90,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Digital expansion drives enrollment growth potential.\",\n \"High debt levels constrain profitability and flexibility.\",\n \"Stable revenue base from existing student population.\",\n \"Margin improvement through operational cost efficiency.\",\n \"Favorable positioning in growing education sector.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Enrollment growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt reduction efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic conditions in Brazil\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology adoption in education\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High leverage increasing financial risk\",\n \"Dependence on Brazilian economic stability\",\n \"Regulatory pressure on education fees\",\n \"Execution risk in digital transition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.18,\n \"wacc\": 0.10,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 5.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 10.50, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Debt crisis and enrollment drop.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 12.90, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth and margin improvement.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 15.00, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong digital adoption and cost cuts.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E with growth assumptions; BUY due to 8.5% 12M upside, balanced risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Research_Model_v1", "risks": [ "High leverage increasing financial risk", "Dependence on Brazilian economic stability", "Regulatory pressure on education fees", "Execution risk in digital transition" ], "ticker": "YDUQ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth and margin improvement.", "target_price": 12.9 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Debt crisis and enrollment drop.", "target_price": 10.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong digital adoption and cost cuts.", "target_price": 15 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Enrollment growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic conditions in Brazil", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology adoption in education", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E with growth assumptions; BUY due to 8.5% 12M upside, balanced risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 11.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Digital expansion drives enrollment growth potential.", "High debt levels constrain profitability and flexibility.", "Stable revenue base from existing student population.", "Margin improvement through operational cost efficiency.", "Favorable positioning in growing education sector." ], "target_price_6m": 12.32, "target_price_12m": 12.9 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 350, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:53.764Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2224, "outputTokens": 3196, "costUsd": 0.001965 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7rxm017rp658qb41df8l", "runId": "cmnqz7rxj017op658if3g17ir", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"YDUQ3 Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"YDUQ3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 11.89,\n \"target_price_6m\": 12.80,\n \"target_price_12m\": 14.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong FCF generation of 776M BRL supports aggressive deleveraging and dividend sustainability.\",\n \"Premium medicine segment provides resilient revenue growth and margin expansion opportunities.\",\n \"High financial leverage (D/E 2.08) remains a key overhang on equity valuation.\",\n \"EV/EBITDA of 4.68x implies excessive pessimism regarding regulatory and macro headwinds.\",\n \"Digital learning expansion improves operating leverage, though ticket prices remain pressured.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Medical seat expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"SELIC interest rate trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital student intake volume\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"FCF allocation to debt reduction\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"FIES/Prouni regulatory changes\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"On-campus average ticket pricing\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Sustained high interest rates inflating debt servicing costs and limiting net income.\",\n \"Increased competition in digital education driving down average tickets and margins.\",\n \"Regulatory changes limiting the expansion of new medical school seats.\",\n \"Macroeconomic deterioration impacting student enrollment and increasing dropout rates.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.17,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 5.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 9.50,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"High rates persist, digital ticket prices collapse, and high leverage destroys equity value.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 14.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady deleveraging via FCF, moderate digital growth, and stable medicine segment performance.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 18.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid SELIC cuts, strong medical seat expansion, and multiple re-rating to 6x EV/EBITDA.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 5.0x EV/EBITDA target and DCF (13.5% WACC). Strong FCF supports deleveraging, justifying the BUY rating (+17.7% upside) despite macro risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "YDUQ3 Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Sustained high interest rates inflating debt servicing costs and limiting net income.", "Increased competition in digital education driving down average tickets and margins.", "Regulatory changes limiting the expansion of new medical school seats.", "Macroeconomic deterioration impacting student enrollment and increasing dropout rates." ], "ticker": "YDUQ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady deleveraging via FCF, moderate digital growth, and stable medicine segment performance.", "target_price": 14 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "High rates persist, digital ticket prices collapse, and high leverage destroys equity value.", "target_price": 9.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid SELIC cuts, strong medical seat expansion, and multiple re-rating to 6x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 18 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Medical seat expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "SELIC interest rate trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital student intake volume", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "FCF allocation to debt reduction", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "FIES/Prouni regulatory changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "On-campus average ticket pricing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 5.0x EV/EBITDA target and DCF (13.5% WACC). Strong FCF supports deleveraging, justifying the BUY rating (+17.7% upside) despite macro risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 11.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong FCF generation of 776M BRL supports aggressive deleveraging and dividend sustainability.", "Premium medicine segment provides resilient revenue growth and margin expansion opportunities.", "High financial leverage (D/E 2.08) remains a key overhang on equity valuation.", "EV/EBITDA of 4.68x implies excessive pessimism regarding regulatory and macro headwinds.", "Digital learning expansion improves operating leverage, though ticket prices remain pressured." ], "target_price_6m": 12.8, "target_price_12m": 14 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 30168, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:53.764Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2452, "outputTokens": 861, "costUsd": 0.015236 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7rxm017pp658ngm97ob5", "runId": "cmnqz7rxj017op658if3g17ir", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"YDUQ3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":11.89,\"target_price_6m\":12.9,\"target_price_12m\":13.9,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"EV/EBITDA near 4.7x looks undemanding for positive FCF.\",\"High dividend yield supports total return despite modest revenue growth.\",\"Operating margin above 16% shows resilient execution and cost control.\",\"Leverage remains elevated, limiting rerating speed and raising risk.\",\"Base case assumes gradual enrollment and cash conversion improvement, not a sharp rebound.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Student intake and retention\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium and medical course mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital scaling and campus efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt reduction via free cash flow\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tuition affordability and delinquency\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory changes in higher education\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competition and pricing pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Enrollment softness in core undergraduate programs\",\"Higher rates keep leverage expensive\",\"Regulatory limits on distance learning or medicine expansion\",\"FCF proves working-capital driven, not structural\",\"Dividend cut hurts sentiment\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":4.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":17,\"wacc\":13.5,\"terminal_multiple\":5.1},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":9.8,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Weak intake and regulation keep leverage high and rerating absent.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":13.9,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Modest growth, stable margins and debt paydown support a mild rerating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":17,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger premium mix and sustained FCF drive faster deleveraging and yield support.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base target uses a blended EV/EBITDA rerating to 5.1x plus FCF/dividend support, assuming modest growth, slight margin lift and debt paydown. Snapshot quote and fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v2", "risks": [ "Enrollment softness in core undergraduate programs", "Higher rates keep leverage expensive", "Regulatory limits on distance learning or medicine expansion", "FCF proves working-capital driven, not structural", "Dividend cut hurts sentiment" ], "ticker": "YDUQ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest growth, stable margins and debt paydown support a mild rerating.", "target_price": 13.9 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Weak intake and regulation keep leverage high and rerating absent.", "target_price": 9.8 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger premium mix and sustained FCF drive faster deleveraging and yield support.", "target_price": 17 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 13.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4.5, "terminal_multiple": 5.1, "ebit_margin_target": 17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Student intake and retention", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Premium and medical course mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital scaling and campus efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction via free cash flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tuition affordability and delinquency", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes in higher education", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition and pricing pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Base target uses a blended EV/EBITDA rerating to 5.1x plus FCF/dividend support, assuming modest growth, slight margin lift and debt paydown. Snapshot quote and fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used. not investment advice", "current_price": 11.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "EV/EBITDA near 4.7x looks undemanding for positive FCF.", "High dividend yield supports total return despite modest revenue growth.", "Operating margin above 16% shows resilient execution and cost control.", "Leverage remains elevated, limiting rerating speed and raising risk.", "Base case assumes gradual enrollment and cash conversion improvement, not a sharp rebound." ], "target_price_6m": 12.9, "target_price_12m": 13.9 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0871e1a598bf88d50069d72d4905208197b31c3c7904f5b1e5", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 33626, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:53.764Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2449, "outputTokens": 2097, "costUsd": 0.033644 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7rxm017sp658mvdlqggg", "runId": "cmnqz7rxj017op658if3g17ir", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF and Peer Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"YDUQ3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 11.89,\n \"target_price_6m\": 13.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 14.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Undervalued at 4.7x EV/EBITDA versus sector\",\n \"Strong FCF supports attractive 9.6% dividend yield\",\n \"Digital expansion boosts scalability and retention\",\n \"High debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1x adds risk\",\n \"Limited revenue growth at 3.4% yoy tempers outlook\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital enrollment growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Medical program expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brazil economic recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"High leverage and rates\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Education regulatory changes\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Edtech competitive pressure\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tuition default rates\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Rising rates straining debt servicing\",\n \"Macro downturn reducing enrollments\",\n \"Intensified online education competition\",\n \"Adverse regulatory shifts on fees\",\n \"Execution risks in digital transition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.17,\n \"wacc\": 0.105,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 7.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 9.5,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged economic weakness leads to enrollment drop.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 14.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable growth and digital efficiencies materialize.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 17.5,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong demand for health courses accelerates growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation uses 5% 3Y revenue CAGR, 17% EBIT margin target, 10.5% WACC and 7.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. Implied 18% 12M upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "DCF and Peer Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Rising rates straining debt servicing", "Macro downturn reducing enrollments", "Intensified online education competition", "Adverse regulatory shifts on fees", "Execution risks in digital transition" ], "ticker": "YDUQ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable growth and digital efficiencies materialize.", "target_price": 14 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Prolonged economic weakness leads to enrollment drop.", "target_price": 9.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong demand for health courses accelerates growth.", "target_price": 17.5 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Digital enrollment growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Medical program expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazil economic recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High leverage and rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Education regulatory changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Edtech competitive pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tuition default rates", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses 5% 3Y revenue CAGR, 17% EBIT margin target, 10.5% WACC and 7.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. Implied 18% 12M upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 11.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Undervalued at 4.7x EV/EBITDA versus sector", "Strong FCF supports attractive 9.6% dividend yield", "Digital expansion boosts scalability and retention", "High debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1x adds risk", "Limited revenue growth at 3.4% yoy tempers outlook" ], "target_price_6m": 13, "target_price_12m": 14 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "d3c9a742-6fcc-9ac9-8fc3-5c690245261e", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26062, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:53.764Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2791, "outputTokens": 3666, "costUsd": 0.063363 } } ] } }