{ "run": { "id": "cmnqz7qzj014kp658ke95en5y", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqz7q3d0147p658kr4inl68", "ticker": "UGPA3", "snapshotId": "cmnqz7qsh014ep658tiurlovc", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqz7qsh014ep658tiurlovc", "assetId": "cmnqz7q3d0147p658kr4inl68", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 30.18, "price": 28.98, "dayLow": 28.7, "volume": 10401600, "dayHigh": 30.46, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 28.96, "week52Low": 15.58, "week52High": 30.46 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 13.06346916696718, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 2.2545357, "fcfTTM": 3028276000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 1.885846, "revenueYoy": 3.0215807 }, "sector": "Energia", "margins": { "net": 0.017854296, "gross": 0.06573626, "operating": 0.034974214 }, "website": "https://www.ultra.com.br", "industry": "Exploração, Refino e Distribuição", "pegRatio": 0.069648705, "ebitdaTTM": 6565426000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 32656929502, "totalCash": 7026883000, "totalDebt": 24365890000, "debtEquity": 1.3742268, "quickRatio": 1.2603927, "revenueTTM": 142369540000, "companyName": "Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.", "priceToBook": 1.8830214, "currentRatio": 1.6186303, "dividendYield": 0.04485852311939269, "returnOnAssets": 0.05150881, "returnOnEquity": 0.14336264, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A Ultrapar Participações S.A., listada na B3 sob o ticker UGPA3, é uma holding brasileira com operações em distribuição de combustíveis, GLP, armazenagem de granéis líquidos e serviços de mobilidade. A companhia foi fundada em 1937 e construiu histórico de expansão por crescimento orgânico e aquisições.\n\nNo portfólio, destacam-se os negócios de distribuição de combustíveis da Ipiranga, distribuição de GLP da Ultragaz e logística da Ultracargo, além de iniciativas em conveniência e energia. A atuação concentra-se na infraestrutura de suprimento e distribuição para varejo, clientes empresariais e cadeias industriais.\n\nA estratégia operacional combina escala, eficiência logística, capilaridade de rede e gestão de portfólio de ativos para sustentar geração de caixa recorrente. O grupo também vem ajustando sua composição de negócios para priorizar segmentos com maior retorno e sinergia operac…", "enterpriseValue": 50726138000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 9778, "sharesOutstanding": 1115507200, "enterpriseToEbitda": 7.726252, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0.35629907, "operatingCashflowTTM": 5452502000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.290Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014wp6580iedk9n6", "runId": "cmnqz7qzj014kp658ke95en5y", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"UGPA3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":28.98,\"target_price_6m\":30.40,\"target_price_12m\":31.80,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Attractive FCF yield (~9%) supports shareholder returns and deleveraging\",\"P/E of 13x and EV/EBITDA of 7.7x reasonable for diversified distribution holding\",\"Ipiranga fuel network provides scale advantages and recurring cash generation\",\"Dividend yield of ~4.5% adds total return cushion during holding period\",\"Strong EPS recovery signals operational turnaround across portfolio businesses\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Ipiranga fuel distribution volume and margin recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Ultracargo capacity expansion and utilization rates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Ultragaz stable LPG demand in residential and commercial segments\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt/Equity at 1.37x constrains financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian macro environment (Selic rates, GDP growth)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Fuel price volatility and Petrobras pricing policy\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Portfolio rationalization unlocking capital for higher-ROIC segments\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Convenience and mobility adjacency initiatives\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Fuel margin compression from regulatory or competitive pressure\",\"Rising Brazilian interest rates increasing cost of debt servicing\",\"BRL depreciation impacting imported input costs\",\"Execution risk on portfolio rebalancing and new adjacencies\",\"Leverage elevated relative to peers; refinancing risk if credit tightens\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.04,\"wacc\":0.13,\"terminal_multiple\":7.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":24.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Margin compression from fuel pricing headwinds and higher Selic pressures valuation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":31.80,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady operational improvement, modest volume growth, and stable multiples.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":37.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Margin expansion across all segments plus portfolio optimization upside.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation: normalized EPS of ~2.5 at 12.5-13x P/E plus EV/EBITDA cross-check at 7.5x on ~BRL 7B forward EBITDA. PEG of 0.07 reflects extraordinary base-effect EPS growth not assumed recurring. 12M expected return ~9.7% supports BUY. Stock near 52w high tempers confidence. Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric inputs. Disclaimer: not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Fuel margin compression from regulatory or competitive pressure", "Rising Brazilian interest rates increasing cost of debt servicing", "BRL depreciation impacting imported input costs", "Execution risk on portfolio rebalancing and new adjacencies", "Leverage elevated relative to peers; refinancing risk if credit tightens" ], "ticker": "UGPA3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady operational improvement, modest volume growth, and stable multiples.", "target_price": 31.8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Margin compression from fuel pricing headwinds and higher Selic pressures valuation.", "target_price": 24 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Margin expansion across all segments plus portfolio optimization upside.", "target_price": 37 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.13, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.04 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Ipiranga fuel distribution volume and margin recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Ultracargo capacity expansion and utilization rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Ultragaz stable LPG demand in residential and commercial segments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt/Equity at 1.37x constrains financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brazilian macro environment (Selic rates, GDP growth)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fuel price volatility and Petrobras pricing policy", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Portfolio rationalization unlocking capital for higher-ROIC segments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Convenience and mobility adjacency initiatives", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation: normalized EPS of ~2.5 at 12.5-13x P/E plus EV/EBITDA cross-check at 7.5x on ~BRL 7B forward EBITDA. PEG of 0.07 reflects extraordinary base-effect EPS growth not assumed recurring. 12M expected return ~9.7% supports BUY. Stock near 52w high tempers confidence. Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric inputs. Disclaimer: not investment advice.", "current_price": 28.98, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive FCF yield (~9%) supports shareholder returns and deleveraging", "P/E of 13x and EV/EBITDA of 7.7x reasonable for diversified distribution holding", "Ipiranga fuel network provides scale advantages and recurring cash generation", "Dividend yield of ~4.5% adds total return cushion during holding period", "Strong EPS recovery signals operational turnaround across portfolio businesses" ], "target_price_6m": 30.4, "target_price_12m": 31.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 43698, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3766, "outputTokens": 1754, "costUsd": 0.06268 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014zp658lck5a26u", "runId": "cmnqz7qzj014kp658ke95en5y", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"UGPA3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 28.98,\n \"target_price_6m\": 30.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 31.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong EPS growth driven by operational efficiency.\",\n \"Diversified energy infrastructure provides stable cash flows.\",\n \"Dividend yield of 4.5% offers income support.\",\n \"Thin margins and high debt pose financial risks.\",\n \"Valuation upside based on growth and margin improvements.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"EPS Growth Rate\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue Growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating Margin\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt Levels\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brazilian Economic Conditions\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Fuel Distribution Demand\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Changes\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Commodity price volatility\",\n \"High leverage and interest rate risk\",\n \"Intense competition in energy distribution\",\n \"Macroeconomic instability in Brazil\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.035,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.04,\n \"wacc\": 0.11,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 27.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Margins decline and growth stalls.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 31.5, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and stable margins.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 35.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong growth and multiple expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed 3.5% revenue CAGR and 4% EBIT margin; BUY due to ~9% 12M upside and mixed evidence; not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI", "risks": [ "Commodity price volatility", "High leverage and interest rate risk", "Intense competition in energy distribution", "Macroeconomic instability in Brazil" ], "ticker": "UGPA3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth and stable margins.", "target_price": 31.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Margins decline and growth stalls.", "target_price": 27 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 35 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.04 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "EPS Growth Rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Margin", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt Levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Economic Conditions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fuel Distribution Demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed 3.5% revenue CAGR and 4% EBIT margin; BUY due to ~9% 12M upside and mixed evidence; not investment advice.", "current_price": 28.98, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong EPS growth driven by operational efficiency.", "Diversified energy infrastructure provides stable cash flows.", "Dividend yield of 4.5% offers income support.", "Thin margins and high debt pose financial risks.", "Valuation upside based on growth and margin improvements." ], "target_price_6m": 30, "target_price_12m": 31.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 358, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2251, "outputTokens": 4316, "costUsd": 0.002443 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014xp658ej0apks9", "runId": "cmnqz7qzj014kp658ke95en5y", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"SOTP / EV/EBITDA\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"UGPA3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 28.98,\n \"target_price_6m\": 30.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 32.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Ipiranga's turnaround strategy prioritizes profitability over volume, driving margin recovery.\",\n \"Ultragaz and Ultracargo provide highly resilient and recurring cash flows.\",\n \"Current EV/EBITDA of 7.7x is attractive relative to historical averages.\",\n \"High leverage remains a headwind in a high interest rate environment.\",\n \"Capital allocation discipline has improved following recent non-core asset divestments.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Ipiranga EBITDA margins\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brazilian GDP growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Selic interest rate\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fuel price volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Ultracargo capacity expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Ultragaz volume growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Intense competition in fuel distribution impacting Ipiranga's market share.\",\n \"High interest rates increasing debt servicing costs on BRL 24.3B total debt.\",\n \"Regulatory changes in fuel pricing or distribution dynamics.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown reducing commercial transport volumes.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.04,\n \"wacc\": 0.115,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 7.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 24.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Margin compression at Ipiranga and sustained high Selic rates pressure earnings.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 32.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual margin improvement at Ipiranga and stable macro environment support moderate upside.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 36.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid Ipiranga turnaround and interest rate cuts drive multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"SOTP valuation anchoring on 7.5x EV/EBITDA for Ipiranga and 8.5x for Ultragaz/Ultracargo. The 12M target of BRL 32.00 implies ~10.4% upside, supporting a BUY rating given the margin recovery. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "SOTP / EV/EBITDA", "risks": [ "Intense competition in fuel distribution impacting Ipiranga's market share.", "High interest rates increasing debt servicing costs on BRL 24.3B total debt.", "Regulatory changes in fuel pricing or distribution dynamics.", "Macroeconomic slowdown reducing commercial transport volumes." ], "ticker": "UGPA3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual margin improvement at Ipiranga and stable macro environment support moderate upside.", "target_price": 32 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Margin compression at Ipiranga and sustained high Selic rates pressure earnings.", "target_price": 24 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid Ipiranga turnaround and interest rate cuts drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 36 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.115, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.04 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Ipiranga EBITDA margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian GDP growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Selic interest rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fuel price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Ultracargo capacity expansion", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Ultragaz volume growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "SOTP valuation anchoring on 7.5x EV/EBITDA for Ipiranga and 8.5x for Ultragaz/Ultracargo. The 12M target of BRL 32.00 implies ~10.4% upside, supporting a BUY rating given the margin recovery. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 28.98, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Ipiranga's turnaround strategy prioritizes profitability over volume, driving margin recovery.", "Ultragaz and Ultracargo provide highly resilient and recurring cash flows.", "Current EV/EBITDA of 7.7x is attractive relative to historical averages.", "High leverage remains a headwind in a high interest rate environment.", "Capital allocation discipline has improved following recent non-core asset divestments." ], "target_price_6m": 30.5, "target_price_12m": 32 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25446, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2487, "outputTokens": 840, "costUsd": 0.015054 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014vp6582qi5nvnw", "runId": "cmnqz7qzj014kp658ke95en5y", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"UGPA3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":28.98,\"target_price_6m\":30.9,\"target_price_12m\":32.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong TTM free cash flow supports deleveraging and dividends.\",\"Ipiranga turnaround and efficiency can lift thin operating margins.\",\"Ultragaz and Ultracargo add resilience versus fuel-distribution cyclicality.\",\"Valuation is reasonable at 13.1x P/E and 7.7x EV/EBITDA.\",\"Competitive retail fuel market and leverage cap upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Ipiranga margin recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Ultragaz volume/pricing\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Ultracargo utilization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fuel retail competition\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Working-capital discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net leverage reduction\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate path\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tax/regulatory changes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Fuel margin compression from price wars\",\"Tax or regulatory changes in fuels and GLP\",\"Higher interest rates prolong deleveraging\",\"Demand softness in Brazil\",\"Turnaround execution misses at Ipiranga\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.042,\"wacc\":0.12,\"terminal_multiple\":8},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":24,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Margin recovery stalls and competition remains intense.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":32.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Moderate margin gains, steady cash generation and stable multiples.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":38,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger Ipiranga turnaround and faster deleveraging rerate shares.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case blends earnings-power and EV/EBITDA off snapshot fundamentals; targets assume modest margin recovery, continued FCF and dividends, offset by leverage and structurally thin margins. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used as inputs; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Fuel margin compression from price wars", "Tax or regulatory changes in fuels and GLP", "Higher interest rates prolong deleveraging", "Demand softness in Brazil", "Turnaround execution misses at Ipiranga" ], "ticker": "UGPA3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate margin gains, steady cash generation and stable multiples.", "target_price": 32.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Margin recovery stalls and competition remains intense.", "target_price": 24 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger Ipiranga turnaround and faster deleveraging rerate shares.", "target_price": 38 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.042 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Ipiranga margin recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Ultragaz volume/pricing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Ultracargo utilization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fuel retail competition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Working-capital discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net leverage reduction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate path", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tax/regulatory changes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Base case blends earnings-power and EV/EBITDA off snapshot fundamentals; targets assume modest margin recovery, continued FCF and dividends, offset by leverage and structurally thin margins. 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