{ "run": { "id": "cmnqz7qzi014ip658ldg1ec3u", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqz7q3e0148p65853rdiqul", "ticker": "USIM5", "snapshotId": "cmnqz7qsh014dp658kqhtmz49", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqz7qsh014dp658kqhtmz49", "assetId": "cmnqz7q3e0148p65853rdiqul", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 7.11, "price": 7.24, "dayLow": 6.97, "volume": 17023100, "dayHigh": 7.27, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 7.24, "week52Low": 3.9, "week52High": 7.27 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 0, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": -2.5006786, "fcfTTM": 118676030, "growth": { "epsYoy": -23.834091, "revenueYoy": 3.0528464 }, "sector": "Materiais Básicos", "margins": { "net": -0.11080167, "gross": 0.083154686, "operating": -0.051930953 }, "website": "https://www.usiminas.com/", "industry": "Siderurgia", "pegRatio": 0, "ebitdaTTM": -89095000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 8422850157.999999, "totalCash": 6943595000, "totalDebt": 8089163300, "debtEquity": 0.341295, "quickRatio": 2.6657865, "revenueTTM": 26263450000, "companyName": "Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA-Usiminas Pfd A", "priceToBook": 0.36638534, "currentRatio": 4.1194606, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": -0.081548356, "returnOnEquity": -0.12277909, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais S.A. (Usiminas) é uma produtora brasileira de aço com foco em produtos planos para os setores automotivo, industrial e de construção civil. A companhia opera usinas e ativos de transformação, com base histórica em Minas Gerais e presença comercial nacional.\n\nA empresa atua de forma integrada em mineração, siderurgia e transformação, incluindo fornecimento de chapas e bobinas laminadas para cadeias industriais de alto volume. O desempenho operacional é influenciado por demanda doméstica, custos de matérias-primas e nível de utilização de capacidade.\n\nAs ações preferenciais da companhia são negociadas na B3 sob o ticker USIM5. Fundada em 1956, a Usiminas reporta 16.106 empregados.", "enterpriseValue": 9829407000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 16106, "sharesOutstanding": 1253079200, "enterpriseToEbitda": -110.32501, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0.37426183, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2179444000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.290Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014rp658wu31y3un", "runId": "cmnqz7qzi014ip658ldg1ec3u", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"USIM5\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":7.24,\"target_price_6m\":7.40,\"target_price_12m\":7.60,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.45,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Deep P/B discount (0.37x) offers downside cushion if book holds\",\"Negative EBITDA and EPS reflect severe cyclical trough for steel\",\"Stock near 52-week high suggests recovery expectations already priced in\",\"Solid liquidity (current ratio 4.1x) limits near-term solvency risk\",\"Margin normalization path unclear amid import competition and weak demand\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Brazilian flat steel demand recovery (auto, construction)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative EBITDA and operating margins\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Chinese steel import competition pressuring pricing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Deep price-to-book discount vs historical averages\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Iron ore and energy cost trajectory\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"BRL strength/weakness affecting export competitiveness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential government trade protection measures\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Positive operating cash flow despite negative EBITDA\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged steel downcycle with no margin recovery in 12 months\",\"Intensification of Chinese steel imports into Brazil\",\"Debt burden (8.1B BRL) vs negative earnings could pressure balance sheet\",\"Macroeconomic slowdown reducing domestic industrial demand\",\"Capital allocation risk: capex needs vs weak cash generation\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.05,\"wacc\":0.14,\"terminal_multiple\":5.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":5.00,\"prob\":0.30,\"notes\":\"Losses persist, steel oversupply deepens, stock re-rates toward trough book multiple.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":7.60,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Gradual margin improvement but no full recovery; stock holds near current levels.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":10.50,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Strong cyclical rebound with margin normalization and import tariff support.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Cyclical steel valuation anchored on normalized EV/EBITDA (5x) and P/B (0.37x vs ~0.6x mid-cycle). Current negative EBITDA makes earnings-based valuation unreliable; P/B floor provides downside reference. Stock near 52wk high despite poor fundamentals suggests recovery priced in. Mixed evidence (deep value vs negative earnings) supports HOLD. Expected 12M return ~5%, within HOLD band. Low confidence due to earnings uncertainty and cyclical fragility. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged steel downcycle with no margin recovery in 12 months", "Intensification of Chinese steel imports into Brazil", "Debt burden (8.1B BRL) vs negative earnings could pressure balance sheet", "Macroeconomic slowdown reducing domestic industrial demand", "Capital allocation risk: capex needs vs weak cash generation" ], "ticker": "USIM5", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual margin improvement but no full recovery; stock holds near current levels.", "target_price": 7.6 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Losses persist, steel oversupply deepens, stock re-rates toward trough book multiple.", "target_price": 5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong cyclical rebound with margin normalization and import tariff support.", "target_price": 10.5 } }, "confidence": 0.45, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.05 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazilian flat steel demand recovery (auto, construction)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative EBITDA and operating margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Chinese steel import competition pressuring pricing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Deep price-to-book discount vs historical averages", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Iron ore and energy cost trajectory", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "BRL strength/weakness affecting export competitiveness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential government trade protection measures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Positive operating cash flow despite negative EBITDA", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Cyclical steel valuation anchored on normalized EV/EBITDA (5x) and P/B (0.37x vs ~0.6x mid-cycle). Current negative EBITDA makes earnings-based valuation unreliable; P/B floor provides downside reference. Stock near 52wk high despite poor fundamentals suggests recovery priced in. Mixed evidence (deep value vs negative earnings) supports HOLD. Expected 12M return ~5%, within HOLD band. Low confidence due to earnings uncertainty and cyclical fragility. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 7.24, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Deep P/B discount (0.37x) offers downside cushion if book holds", "Negative EBITDA and EPS reflect severe cyclical trough for steel", "Stock near 52-week high suggests recovery expectations already priced in", "Solid liquidity (current ratio 4.1x) limits near-term solvency risk", "Margin normalization path unclear amid import competition and weak demand" ], "target_price_6m": 7.4, "target_price_12m": 7.6 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 49774, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3714, "outputTokens": 1830, "costUsd": 0.06432 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014up6588pdmlahg", "runId": "cmnqz7qzi014ip658ldg1ec3u", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF and Relative Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"USIM5\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 7.24,\n \"target_price_6m\": 7.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 8.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Valuation depressed due to cyclical losses.\",\n \"Strong liquidity with high cash reserves.\",\n \"Revenue growth positive indicating stable demand.\",\n \"Margin recovery potential as industry improves.\",\n \"Low price-to-book ratio suggests undervaluation.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Steel demand recovery in Brazil\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency improvements\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Commodity price volatility\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"High debt levels\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Positive operating cash flow\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cyclical industry risks\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Low valuation multiples\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged steel price weakness\",\n \"Operational cost inefficiencies\",\n \"Economic slowdown in Brazil\",\n \"Currency exchange rate volatility\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.05,\n \"wacc\": 0.11,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 6\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 6.5, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Continued losses and weak demand pressure prices.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 8.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery with margin improvement.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 9.5, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong rebound in steel prices and cost cuts.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with recovery assumptions and relative P/B analysis. 12M expected return ~10.5%, justifying BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "DCF and Relative Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged steel price weakness", "Operational cost inefficiencies", "Economic slowdown in Brazil", "Currency exchange rate volatility" ], "ticker": "USIM5", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate recovery with margin improvement.", "target_price": 8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Continued losses and weak demand pressure prices.", "target_price": 6.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong rebound in steel prices and cost cuts.", "target_price": 9.5 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 6, "ebit_margin_target": 0.05 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Steel demand recovery in Brazil", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency improvements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commodity price volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "High debt levels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Positive operating cash flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cyclical industry risks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Low valuation multiples", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with recovery assumptions and relative P/B analysis. 12M expected return ~10.5%, justifying BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 7.24, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation depressed due to cyclical losses.", "Strong liquidity with high cash reserves.", "Revenue growth positive indicating stable demand.", "Margin recovery potential as industry improves.", "Low price-to-book ratio suggests undervaluation." ], "target_price_6m": 7.5, "target_price_12m": 8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 353, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2196, "outputTokens": 5358, "costUsd": 0.002865 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014sp658xnamkt9u", "runId": "cmnqz7qzi014ip658ldg1ec3u", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_Cyclical_Turnaround\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"USIM5\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 7.24,\n \"target_price_6m\": 7.80,\n \"target_price_12m\": 8.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Trading at a deep discount to book value (0.36x P/B) despite strong liquidity.\",\n \"Blast Furnace 3 stabilization should normalize costs and improve currently negative operating margins.\",\n \"Potential government tariffs on imported steel provide a catalyst for domestic price realization.\",\n \"High exposure to the cyclical auto sector remains a double-edged sword for volume growth.\",\n \"Valuation implies a turnaround is partially priced in, limiting upside to a moderate BUY.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Domestic Auto Production\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Chinese Steel Export Volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brazilian Import Tariffs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Blast Furnace 3 Efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Iron Ore & Coal Prices\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"SELIC Interest Rate\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Influx of cheap Asian steel imports pressuring domestic market share and pricing.\",\n \"Slower-than-expected Brazilian GDP and construction sector growth.\",\n \"Operational hiccups or delayed efficiency gains at main production plants.\",\n \"Rising raw material costs squeezing margins before price hikes can be passed on.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.08,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 4.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 5.50,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Cheap imports flood the market and auto demand stalls, keeping margins negative.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 8.50,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Operations stabilize, margins recover to historical averages, and tariffs provide a pricing floor.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 10.50,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong domestic economic growth and optimal capacity utilization drive margins above 12%.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on normalized EV/EBITDA of 4.5x on mid-cycle margins, cross-checked with P/B reversion. The 17% upside supports a BUY rating, though negative TTM earnings warrant caution. This is not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_Cyclical_Turnaround", "risks": [ "Influx of cheap Asian steel imports pressuring domestic market share and pricing.", "Slower-than-expected Brazilian GDP and construction sector growth.", "Operational hiccups or delayed efficiency gains at main production plants.", "Rising raw material costs squeezing margins before price hikes can be passed on." ], "ticker": "USIM5", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Operations stabilize, margins recover to historical averages, and tariffs provide a pricing floor.", "target_price": 8.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Cheap imports flood the market and auto demand stalls, keeping margins negative.", "target_price": 5.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong domestic economic growth and optimal capacity utilization drive margins above 12%.", "target_price": 10.5 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 4.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.08 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Domestic Auto Production", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Chinese Steel Export Volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Import Tariffs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Blast Furnace 3 Efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Iron Ore & Coal Prices", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "SELIC Interest Rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on normalized EV/EBITDA of 4.5x on mid-cycle margins, cross-checked with P/B reversion. The 17% upside supports a BUY rating, though negative TTM earnings warrant caution. This is not investment advice.", "current_price": 7.24, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trading at a deep discount to book value (0.36x P/B) despite strong liquidity.", "Blast Furnace 3 stabilization should normalize costs and improve currently negative operating margins.", "Potential government tariffs on imported steel provide a catalyst for domestic price realization.", "High exposure to the cyclical auto sector remains a double-edged sword for volume growth.", "Valuation implies a turnaround is partially priced in, limiting upside to a moderate BUY." ], "target_price_6m": 7.8, "target_price_12m": 8.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23871, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2411, "outputTokens": 834, "costUsd": 0.01483 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014qp658jdxw8qay", "runId": "cmnqz7qzi014ip658ldg1ec3u", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"USIM5\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":7.24,\"target_price_6m\":6.95,\"target_price_12m\":7.6,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.52,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong liquidity limits balance-sheet stress despite current losses.\",\"Shares trade at 0.37x book, implying much bad news is priced.\",\"Domestic steel demand could stabilize with autos and infrastructure.\",\"Negative TTM EBIT and EBITDA show weak pricing and utilization.\",\"At a 52-week high, upside seems modest without margin recovery.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Brazil flat-steel spreads\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Automotive demand recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Import competition\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Mining integration benefit\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cash and liquidity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative operating leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy and coal costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial activity in Brazil\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Chinese import surge pressures local prices.\",\"Losses persist longer than expected.\",\"Brazil industrial demand weakens.\",\"Input-cost inflation compresses margins.\",\"Asset utilization recovery disappoints.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":3.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":4.5,\"wacc\":13.5,\"terminal_multiple\":0.38},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":5.9,\"prob\":0.3,\"notes\":\"Imports stay high and margins remain near trough.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":7.6,\"prob\":0.45,\"notes\":\"Volumes stabilize and valuation holds near current P/B.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":9.6,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Domestic spreads recover and utilization lifts materially.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative; no external prices used. Valuation anchored on ~0.38x P/B, cross-checked with a mid-cycle margin recovery framework for cyclical steel. Mixed evidence and only ~5% 12M upside support HOLD. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Chinese import surge pressures local prices.", "Losses persist longer than expected.", "Brazil industrial demand weakens.", "Input-cost inflation compresses margins.", "Asset utilization recovery disappoints." ], "ticker": "USIM5", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Volumes stabilize and valuation holds near current P/B.", "target_price": 7.6 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Imports stay high and margins remain near trough.", "target_price": 5.9 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Domestic spreads recover and utilization lifts materially.", "target_price": 9.6 } }, "confidence": 0.52, "assumptions": { "wacc": 13.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 3.5, "terminal_multiple": 0.38, "ebit_margin_target": 4.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazil flat-steel spreads", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Automotive demand recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Import competition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Mining integration benefit", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cash and liquidity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative operating leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy and coal costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Industrial activity in Brazil", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative; no external prices used. Valuation anchored on ~0.38x P/B, cross-checked with a mid-cycle margin recovery framework for cyclical steel. Mixed evidence and only ~5% 12M upside support HOLD. not investment advice", "current_price": 7.24, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong liquidity limits balance-sheet stress despite current losses.", "Shares trade at 0.37x book, implying much bad news is priced.", "Domestic steel demand could stabilize with autos and infrastructure.", "Negative TTM EBIT and EBITDA show weak pricing and utilization.", "At a 52-week high, upside seems modest without margin recovery." ], "target_price_6m": 6.95, "target_price_12m": 7.6 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0c45f66f7ea0594b0069d72d1f29988196a1621b336b9859a0", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 40556, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2427, "outputTokens": 2418, "costUsd": 0.038099 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7qzl014tp658uk7adcy3", "runId": "cmnqz7qzi014ip658ldg1ec3u", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Cyclical DCF Normalization\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"USIM5\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 7.24,\n \"target_price_6m\": 8.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 8.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.55,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Low 0.37x P/B signals undervaluation.\",\n \"Negative margins reflect weak steel cycle.\",\n \"Robust liquidity with 4.1 current ratio.\",\n \"Upside from Brazil infrastructure spending.\",\n \"High sensitivity to global steel prices.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Steel prices\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Domestic demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Import competition\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Raw material costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capacity utilization\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Infrastructure spending\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"BRL depreciation\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Persistent negative operating margins\",\n \"Increased Chinese steel imports\",\n \"Brazil economic slowdown\",\n \"Operational disruptions at mills\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.08,\n \"wacc\": 0.11,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 6\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 5.0,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Continued losses with no cycle recovery.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 8.5,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate demand improvement to positive margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 12.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong growth and sharp margin expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Normalized DCF with target EBIT margin and terminal multiple for cyclical steel firm. 17% implied 12M return supports BUY despite current losses and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Cyclical DCF Normalization", "risks": [ "Persistent negative operating margins", "Increased Chinese steel imports", "Brazil economic slowdown", "Operational disruptions at mills" ], "ticker": "USIM5", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Moderate demand improvement to positive margins.", "target_price": 8.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Continued losses with no cycle recovery.", "target_price": 5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth and sharp margin expansion.", "target_price": 12 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 6, "ebit_margin_target": 0.08 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Steel prices", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Domestic demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Import competition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Raw material costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capacity utilization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Infrastructure spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "BRL depreciation", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Normalized DCF with target EBIT margin and terminal multiple for cyclical steel firm. 17% implied 12M return supports BUY despite current losses and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 7.24, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Low 0.37x P/B signals undervaluation.", "Negative margins reflect weak steel cycle.", "Robust liquidity with 4.1 current ratio.", "Upside from Brazil infrastructure spending.", "High sensitivity to global steel prices." ], "target_price_6m": 8, "target_price_12m": 8.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "30f26ae6-3f94-9d2d-a8fb-6890346c92bf", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 30148, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:52.540Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2772, "outputTokens": 4498, "costUsd": 0.075786 } } ] } }