{ "run": { "id": "cmnqz7pcz012qp658ab5c3t4z", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqz7pc6012mp658rew071y3", "ticker": "SMFT3", "snapshotId": "cmnqz7pcr012op658z6oxxz7f", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.432Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqz7pcr012op658z6oxxz7f", "assetId": "cmnqz7pc6012mp658rew071y3", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 19.67, "price": 19.38, "dayLow": 19.14, "volume": 7854500, "dayHigh": 19.67, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 19.39, "week52Low": 17.92, "week52High": 27.39562637 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 18.64357864357864, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 1.0677728, "fcfTTM": -527990, "growth": { "epsYoy": 2.880472, "revenueYoy": 3.7005703 }, "sector": "Consumo Cíclico", "margins": { "net": 0.08845085, "gross": 0.4248952, "operating": 0.23445413 }, "website": "https://www.smartfit.com.br", "industry": "Atividades Esportivas", "pegRatio": 0.062413096, "ebitdaTTM": 3455046000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 11515467839, "totalCash": 3426136800, "totalDebt": 13127344000, "debtEquity": 2.3179238, "quickRatio": 1.3159525, "revenueTTM": 7241694000, "companyName": "Smartfit Escola de Ginastica e Danca SA", "priceToBook": 2.0333111, "currentRatio": 1.3159525, "dividendYield": 0.05380062435500516, "returnOnAssets": 0.029795539, "returnOnEquity": 0.11310049, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "Smart Fit S.A. é a maior rede de academias de ginástica do Brasil, operando centros de treinamento físico com modelo de negócio inovador focado em acessibilidade e tecnologia. Fundada em 2011, a Smart Fit revolucionou o mercado de fitness brasileiro ao oferecer mensalidades acessíveis e infraestrutura moderna em múltiplas unidades. A companhia opera centenas de academias em todo o Brasil, atendendo milhões de clientes com programas de treinamento, aulas coletivas e serviços de personal training.\n\nA Smart Fit é conhecida por seu modelo de negócio escalável e eficiente, utilizando tecnologia para otimizar operações e melhorar a experiência do cliente. Com receita anual superior a R$ 1,5 bilhão, a companhia é o maior operador de academias do Brasil e está expandindo sua presença para mercados internacionais. A empresa oferece acesso a fitness de qualidade a um preço acessível, democratizand…", "enterpriseValue": 21216674000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 3000, "sharesOutstanding": 616129860, "enterpriseToEbitda": 6.140779, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.9297943, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2092679900, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.427Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqz7pd2012sp658nh7f4dwl", "runId": "cmnqz7pcz012qp658ab5c3t4z", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"SMFT3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":19.38,\"target_price_6m\":22.5,\"target_price_12m\":24.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"EV/EBITDA of 6.1x is cheap for Latin America's largest gym chain\",\"High leverage (D/E 2.3x) weighs on equity but EBITDA covers interest\",\"Operating margin at 23.4% shows scalable low-cost fitness model\",\"Stock trades 29% below 52-week high, creating a valuation entry point\",\"Negative FCF limits deleveraging pace despite strong operating cash flow\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Unit expansion across LatAm driving top-line growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage from scale and membership density\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian Selic rate environment pressuring leveraged names\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield of ~5.4% provides downside support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt-to-equity of 2.3x amplifies equity risk\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS YoY growth of 288% signals margin inflection\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary spending sensitive to macro cycle\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capex-heavy expansion model consuming operating cash flow\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Brazilian macro deterioration compressing consumer discretionary spending\",\"Rising interest rates increasing debt service on BRL 13.1B gross debt\",\"Competitive entry from international gym chains or boutique fitness\",\"Execution risk on international expansion diluting returns\",\"Potential equity dilution if deleveraging requires capital raise\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.10,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.25,\"wacc\":0.14,\"terminal_multiple\":7.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":16.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Macro headwinds compress EV/EBITDA to ~5x with stalling membership growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":24.0,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Moderate EBITDA growth (~10%) with multiple re-rating toward 7x EV/EBITDA.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":29.5,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong expansion execution, deleveraging progress, multiple expands to 8x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"EV/EBITDA-based valuation anchored on TTM EBITDA of BRL 3.46B growing ~10%. Base case applies 7x forward EV/EBITDA, subtracts ~BRL 9.7B net debt, divides by 616M shares. BUY despite 24% implied 12M return because confidence is moderate (0.62) due to high leverage, negative FCF, and Brazil macro uncertainty. PEG of 0.06 appears anomalous—likely reflects extraordinary EPS jump rather than sustainable growth. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Brazilian macro deterioration compressing consumer discretionary spending", "Rising interest rates increasing debt service on BRL 13.1B gross debt", "Competitive entry from international gym chains or boutique fitness", "Execution risk on international expansion diluting returns", "Potential equity dilution if deleveraging requires capital raise" ], "ticker": "SMFT3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate EBITDA growth (~10%) with multiple re-rating toward 7x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 24 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macro headwinds compress EV/EBITDA to ~5x with stalling membership growth.", "target_price": 16 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong expansion execution, deleveraging progress, multiple expands to 8x.", "target_price": 29.5 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.1, "terminal_multiple": 7, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Unit expansion across LatAm driving top-line growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage from scale and membership density", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Selic rate environment pressuring leveraged names", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield of ~5.4% provides downside support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt-to-equity of 2.3x amplifies equity risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EPS YoY growth of 288% signals margin inflection", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending sensitive to macro cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capex-heavy expansion model consuming operating cash flow", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "EV/EBITDA-based valuation anchored on TTM EBITDA of BRL 3.46B growing ~10%. Base case applies 7x forward EV/EBITDA, subtracts ~BRL 9.7B net debt, divides by 616M shares. BUY despite 24% implied 12M return because confidence is moderate (0.62) due to high leverage, negative FCF, and Brazil macro uncertainty. PEG of 0.06 appears anomalous—likely reflects extraordinary EPS jump rather than sustainable growth. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 19.38, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "EV/EBITDA of 6.1x is cheap for Latin America's largest gym chain", "High leverage (D/E 2.3x) weighs on equity but EBITDA covers interest", "Operating margin at 23.4% shows scalable low-cost fitness model", "Stock trades 29% below 52-week high, creating a valuation entry point", "Negative FCF limits deleveraging pace despite strong operating cash flow" ], "target_price_6m": 22.5, "target_price_12m": 24 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 48499, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.432Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3754, "outputTokens": 2227, "costUsd": 0.074445 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7pd2012vp658puwsya9e", "runId": "cmnqz7pcz012qp658ab5c3t4z", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"SMFT3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 19.38,\n \"target_price_6m\": 19.10,\n \"target_price_12m\": 18.70,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable revenue growth but modest EPS expansion.\",\n \"High debt levels could pressure margins.\",\n \"Strong market position in Brazilian fitness.\",\n \"Scalable business model with technology.\",\n \"Cyclical exposure to consumer spending.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue Growth Rate\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating Margin Stability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt-to-Equity Ratio\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brazilian Economic Conditions\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market Share in Fitness Sector\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive Intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technological Investments\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High leverage increasing financial risk.\",\n \"Economic downturn reducing discretionary spending.\",\n \"Increased competition from low-cost gyms.\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting operations.\",\n \"Execution risk in expansion plans.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.11,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 17.00, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Economic recession leads to lower membership.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 18.70, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady growth with stable margins.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 20.50, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Faster expansion and margin improvement.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on EPS growth and P/E multiple. HOLD due to modest upside/downside and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "High leverage increasing financial risk.", "Economic downturn reducing discretionary spending.", "Increased competition from low-cost gyms.", "Regulatory changes affecting operations.", "Execution risk in expansion plans." ], "ticker": "SMFT3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth with stable margins.", "target_price": 18.7 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic recession leads to lower membership.", "target_price": 17 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Faster expansion and margin improvement.", "target_price": 20.5 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue Growth Rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Margin Stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt-to-Equity Ratio", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Economic Conditions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market Share in Fitness Sector", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive Intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technological Investments", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on EPS growth and P/E multiple. HOLD due to modest upside/downside and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 19.38, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable revenue growth but modest EPS expansion.", "High debt levels could pressure margins.", "Strong market position in Brazilian fitness.", "Scalable business model with technology.", "Cyclical exposure to consumer spending." ], "target_price_6m": 19.1, "target_price_12m": 18.7 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 350, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.432Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2231, "outputTokens": 3354, "costUsd": 0.002033 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7pd2012tp658uv4uao8v", "runId": "cmnqz7pcz012qp658ab5c3t4z", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"SMFT3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 19.38,\n \"target_price_6m\": 21.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 22.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Market leader in LatAm fitness with strong brand and scalable low-cost model.\",\n \"EV/EBITDA of 6.1x is undemanding, pricing in slower growth and high leverage risks.\",\n \"High debt-to-equity (2.3x) remains a headwind for net income in high-rate environments.\",\n \"Maturing gym cohorts should drive operating leverage and eventually positive free cash flow.\",\n \"Dividend yield of 5.4% provides downside protection while expansion capex normalizes.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"LatAm gym expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate (SELIC) levels\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Membership pricing adjustments\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Mature gym margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capex requirements\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regional competition\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Elevated leverage (2.3x D/E) pressures earnings if rates remain high.\",\n \"Aggressive expansion capex continues to drive negative free cash flow.\",\n \"Macroeconomic weakness in LatAm could increase membership churn.\",\n \"FX volatility impacting non-BRL revenue translation.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.125,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 6.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 16.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"High rates and rising churn compress margins and force slower expansion.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 22.50,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady cohort maturation and moderate growth drive EV/EBITDA multiple to 7x.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 27.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid deleveraging and strong LatAm growth trigger multiple expansion to 8x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on 7x target EV/EBITDA and DCF (12.5% WACC). High leverage and negative FCF cap upside, supporting a BUY rather than STRONG_BUY. Target implies ~16% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Elevated leverage (2.3x D/E) pressures earnings if rates remain high.", "Aggressive expansion capex continues to drive negative free cash flow.", "Macroeconomic weakness in LatAm could increase membership churn.", "FX volatility impacting non-BRL revenue translation." ], "ticker": "SMFT3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady cohort maturation and moderate growth drive EV/EBITDA multiple to 7x.", "target_price": 22.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "High rates and rising churn compress margins and force slower expansion.", "target_price": 16 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid deleveraging and strong LatAm growth trigger multiple expansion to 8x.", "target_price": 27 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.125, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 6.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "LatAm gym expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate (SELIC) levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Membership pricing adjustments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mature gym margin expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex requirements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regional competition", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on 7x target EV/EBITDA and DCF (12.5% WACC). High leverage and negative FCF cap upside, supporting a BUY rather than STRONG_BUY. Target implies ~16% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 19.38, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Market leader in LatAm fitness with strong brand and scalable low-cost model.", "EV/EBITDA of 6.1x is undemanding, pricing in slower growth and high leverage risks.", "High debt-to-equity (2.3x) remains a headwind for net income in high-rate environments.", "Maturing gym cohorts should drive operating leverage and eventually positive free cash flow.", "Dividend yield of 5.4% provides downside protection while expansion capex normalizes." ], "target_price_6m": 21, "target_price_12m": 22.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26247, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.432Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2468, "outputTokens": 849, "costUsd": 0.015124 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7pd2012rp658a7vqmmlx", "runId": "cmnqz7pcz012qp658ab5c3t4z", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"SMFT3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":19.38,\"target_price_6m\":20.4,\"target_price_12m\":21.2,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Scale leadership supports pricing, retention, and unit economics.\",\"Margins remain strong despite modest top-line growth.\",\"Valuation looks reasonable near 52-week low levels.\",\"Dividend yield provides some total-return support.\",\"Leverage and capex intensity cap rerating speed.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Membership growth and churn\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Mature gym same-store sales\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New unit ramp efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin discipline and occupancy\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Lease-adjusted leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capex and free cash conversion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazil consumer spending\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend support\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Consumer slowdown reduces memberships and retention.\",\"Expansion execution missteps pressure returns.\",\"High debt and lease obligations limit flexibility.\",\"Cash conversion stays weak despite EBITDA growth.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":8.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.12,\"terminal_multiple\":7},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":16.5,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Weak memberships and slower deleveraging compress valuation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":21.2,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady member growth, stable margins, modest rerating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":25.5,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Faster expansion and better cash conversion drive rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Snapshot quote/fundamentals used as authoritative baseline. 12M target is a blended earnings-power and EV/EBITDA view with a leverage penalty; no sell-side targets used. Recommendation matches ~9% 12M upside. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Consumer slowdown reduces memberships and retention.", "Expansion execution missteps pressure returns.", "High debt and lease obligations limit flexibility.", "Cash conversion stays weak despite EBITDA growth." ], "ticker": "SMFT3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady member growth, stable margins, modest rerating.", "target_price": 21.2 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Weak memberships and slower deleveraging compress valuation.", "target_price": 16.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Faster expansion and better cash conversion drive rerating.", "target_price": 25.5 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 8.5, "terminal_multiple": 7, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Membership growth and churn", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mature gym same-store sales", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New unit ramp efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin discipline and occupancy", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Lease-adjusted leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capex and free cash conversion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brazil consumer spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend support", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Snapshot quote/fundamentals used as authoritative baseline. 12M target is a blended earnings-power and EV/EBITDA view with a leverage penalty; no sell-side targets used. Recommendation matches ~9% 12M upside. not investment advice", "current_price": 19.38, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Scale leadership supports pricing, retention, and unit economics.", "Margins remain strong despite modest top-line growth.", "Valuation looks reasonable near 52-week low levels.", "Dividend yield provides some total-return support.", "Leverage and capex intensity cap rerating speed." ], "target_price_6m": 20.4, "target_price_12m": 21.2 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_01bd2050f614ca050069d72d070af881959cc620cc16211842", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23099, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.432Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2463, "outputTokens": 1469, "costUsd": 0.024876 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7pd2012up658lsc9vv0l", "runId": "cmnqz7pcz012qp658ab5c3t4z", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Fundamental DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"SMFT3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 19.38,\n \"target_price_6m\": 21.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 23.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Market leader in affordable fitness with scalable unit model\",\n \"Recurring membership revenue supports cash flow visibility\",\n \"Elevated debt load vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations\",\n \"Low PEG ratio signals undervaluation if growth accelerates\",\n \"Expansion into new markets drives long-term upside potential\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Gym unit expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Membership growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt levels\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer spending in Brazil\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competitive intensity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International market penetration\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High financial leverage and rising interest costs\",\n \"Economic slowdown reducing discretionary fitness spend\",\n \"Execution risks in new unit openings\",\n \"Intense local and international competition\",\n \"Potential margin pressure from cost inflation\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.105,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 16.5,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates and weak economy limit expansion.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 23.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Consistent unit growth and stable margins achieved.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 29.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated international growth and debt paydown.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 12% rev CAGR, 25% EBIT margin, 10.5% WACC and 8.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. 19% upside supports BUY. Snapshot data used as baseline. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Fundamental DCF Model", "risks": [ "High financial leverage and rising interest costs", "Economic slowdown reducing discretionary fitness spend", "Execution risks in new unit openings", "Intense local and international competition", "Potential margin pressure from cost inflation" ], "ticker": "SMFT3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Consistent unit growth and stable margins achieved.", "target_price": 23 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Higher rates and weak economy limit expansion.", "target_price": 16.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated international growth and debt paydown.", "target_price": 29 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Gym unit expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Membership growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending in Brazil", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International market penetration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 12% rev CAGR, 25% EBIT margin, 10.5% WACC and 8.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. 19% upside supports BUY. Snapshot data used as baseline. not investment advice.", "current_price": 19.38, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Market leader in affordable fitness with scalable unit model", "Recurring membership revenue supports cash flow visibility", "Elevated debt load vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations", "Low PEG ratio signals undervaluation if growth accelerates", "Expansion into new markets drives long-term upside potential" ], "target_price_6m": 21, "target_price_12m": 23 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "eb218a85-3a7e-9754-8c70-d5a0660a7692", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 31721, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.432Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2805, "outputTokens": 4051, "costUsd": 0.06918 } } ] } }