{ "run": { "id": "cmnqz7p13011kp658nd488598", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqz7p07011gp658u6h34w3c", "ticker": "SANB11", "snapshotId": "cmnqz7p0g011ip658p0ef9z4m", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.003Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqz7p0g011ip658p0ef9z4m", "assetId": "cmnqz7p07011gp658u6h34w3c", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 32.08, "price": 31.41, "dayLow": 31.36, "volume": 5278600, "dayHigh": 32.56, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 31.56, "week52Low": 25.49, "week52High": 37.83 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 0, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 1.7290217, "fcfTTM": 55884485000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 3.2233555, "revenueYoy": 3.438043 }, "sector": "Serviços Financeiros", "margins": { "net": 0.07978801, "gross": 0.3546844, "operating": 0 }, "website": "https://www.santander.com.br/", "industry": "Bancos", "pegRatio": 0.027003983, "ebitdaTTM": 0, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 0, "totalCash": 0, "totalDebt": 0, "debtEquity": 9.035542775329684, "quickRatio": 0.01769405105014174, "revenueTTM": 162494640000, "companyName": "Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. Units Cons of 1 Sh + 1 Pfd Sh", "priceToBook": 1.8225925, "currentRatio": 1.110674037505568, "dividendYield": 0.06926616746259152, "returnOnAssets": 0.010208521, "returnOnEquity": 0.10244805, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "O Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A., negociado na B3 pelo ticker SANB11, foi fundado em 1982 e atua no setor bancário brasileiro. A instituição integra o Grupo Santander e opera como uma das maiores plataformas do conglomerado fora da Europa.\n\nA atuação cobre varejo bancário, crédito, cartões, serviços para empresas, seguros, gestão de ativos e outros serviços financeiros. O banco combina canais físicos e digitais para atendimento de pessoas físicas e jurídicas, com foco em produtos de intermediação financeira e serviços transacionais.\n\nNo cenário competitivo, o Santander Brasil disputa mercado com os principais bancos de grande porte do país em crédito, captação e serviços. O desempenho do negócio é influenciado por ciclo econômico doméstico, dinâmica de juros, inadimplência e competição em canais digitais.\n\nA instituição tem cobertura nacional e base ampla de clientes e operações. Em escal…", "enterpriseValue": 1353898446000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 49661, "sharesOutstanding": 7498531000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 0, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0, "operatingCashflowTTM": 53534990000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:49.985Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqz7p18011mp65861mira56", "runId": "cmnqz7p13011kp658nd488598", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"SANB11\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":31.41,\"target_price_6m\":32.20,\"target_price_12m\":33.00,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.52,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"ROE at 10.2% still lags cost of equity, limiting re-rating potential\",\"P/B of 1.82x appears stretched given current profitability levels\",\"Strong YoY EPS recovery signals improving earnings trajectory\",\"Dividend yield near 6.9% provides meaningful downside cushion\",\"Competitive pressure from fintechs and incumbents caps margin expansion\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"ROE improvement trajectory toward 13-15%\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian Selic rate cycle and NIM dynamics\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit quality and provisioning normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital transformation and cost efficiency gains\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fintech and neobank competitive pressure on fees\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Loan book growth in consumer and SME segments\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt-to-equity of 9x amplifies macro sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend payout sustainability supporting yield floor\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Macro deterioration raising provisioning and NPLs above expectations\",\"Sustained ROE below cost of equity leading to P/B de-rating\",\"Regulatory changes impacting interchange fees or capital requirements\",\"Further Selic increases compressing net interest margins\",\"Accelerated market share loss to digital-native competitors\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.14,\"wacc\":0.145,\"terminal_multiple\":1.3},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":26.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"ROE stalls near 10%, P/B compresses to ~1.5x book on macro shock.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":33.00,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Gradual ROE recovery to 13%, modest re-rating with dividend support.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":38.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"ROE reaches 15%+, re-rating to ~2.2x P/B on strong credit cycle.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on Gordon growth-adjusted P/B framework for banks. Justified P/B = (ROE-g)/(CoE-g). Current 1.82x P/B implies sustained ROE well above 15%, yet reported ROE is only 10.2%. EPS recovery (3.2x YoY) suggests normalization but not yet sufficient to justify current multiple. 12M base target of BRL 33 assumes incremental ROE improvement to ~13% and book value growth, yielding ~5% price upside plus ~7% dividend yield. HOLD reflects near-fair-value pricing with high uncertainty on ROE path. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Macro deterioration raising provisioning and NPLs above expectations", "Sustained ROE below cost of equity leading to P/B de-rating", "Regulatory changes impacting interchange fees or capital requirements", "Further Selic increases compressing net interest margins", "Accelerated market share loss to digital-native competitors" ], "ticker": "SANB11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual ROE recovery to 13%, modest re-rating with dividend support.", "target_price": 33 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "ROE stalls near 10%, P/B compresses to ~1.5x book on macro shock.", "target_price": 26 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "ROE reaches 15%+, re-rating to ~2.2x P/B on strong credit cycle.", "target_price": 38 } }, "confidence": 0.52, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.145, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 1.3, "ebit_margin_target": 0.14 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "ROE improvement trajectory toward 13-15%", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Selic rate cycle and NIM dynamics", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Credit quality and provisioning normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital transformation and cost efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fintech and neobank competitive pressure on fees", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Loan book growth in consumer and SME segments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt-to-equity of 9x amplifies macro sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend payout sustainability supporting yield floor", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on Gordon growth-adjusted P/B framework for banks. Justified P/B = (ROE-g)/(CoE-g). Current 1.82x P/B implies sustained ROE well above 15%, yet reported ROE is only 10.2%. EPS recovery (3.2x YoY) suggests normalization but not yet sufficient to justify current multiple. 12M base target of BRL 33 assumes incremental ROE improvement to ~13% and book value growth, yielding ~5% price upside plus ~7% dividend yield. HOLD reflects near-fair-value pricing with high uncertainty on ROE path. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 31.41, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "ROE at 10.2% still lags cost of equity, limiting re-rating potential", "P/B of 1.82x appears stretched given current profitability levels", "Strong YoY EPS recovery signals improving earnings trajectory", "Dividend yield near 6.9% provides meaningful downside cushion", "Competitive pressure from fintechs and incumbents caps margin expansion" ], "target_price_6m": 32.2, "target_price_12m": 33 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 51477, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.003Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3763, "outputTokens": 2334, "costUsd": 0.077165 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7p18011pp658g6qfcnyz", "runId": "cmnqz7p13011kp658nd488598", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"P/B and ROE Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"SANB11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 31.41,\n \"target_price_6m\": 31.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 30.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable but low revenue growth around 3.5% annually.\",\n \"ROE of 10.2% supports moderate earnings power.\",\n \"Current P/B of 1.82 appears slightly overvalued relative to peers.\",\n \"Dividend yield of 6.9% provides income support.\",\n \"Economic sensitivity poses balanced risks to upside and downside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Brazilian economic growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Loan book quality\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Digital transformation efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competitive intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Capital adequacy ratios\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Inflation trends\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Currency exchange rates\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Customer acquisition costs\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession in Brazil\",\n \"Rising loan defaults\",\n \"Increased competition from digital banks\",\n \"Adverse regulatory changes\",\n \"Interest rate volatility\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.035,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.08,\n \"wacc\": 0.1,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 1.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 28.0,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown impacts loan growth and increases defaults.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 30.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Current trends persist with moderate growth and stable margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 35.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Improved efficiency and higher interest margins boost earnings.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on P/B multiple and ROE, with scenarios for economic conditions. Expected 12M return ~ -4.5%, within HOLD range. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "P/B and ROE Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Economic recession in Brazil", "Rising loan defaults", "Increased competition from digital banks", "Adverse regulatory changes", "Interest rate volatility" ], "ticker": "SANB11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Current trends persist with moderate growth and stable margins.", "target_price": 30 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic slowdown impacts loan growth and increases defaults.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Improved efficiency and higher interest margins boost earnings.", "target_price": 35 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 1.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.08 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazilian economic growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Loan book quality", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital transformation efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital adequacy ratios", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inflation trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Currency exchange rates", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Customer acquisition costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on P/B multiple and ROE, with scenarios for economic conditions. Expected 12M return ~ -4.5%, within HOLD range. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 31.41, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable but low revenue growth around 3.5% annually.", "ROE of 10.2% supports moderate earnings power.", "Current P/B of 1.82 appears slightly overvalued relative to peers.", "Dividend yield of 6.9% provides income support.", "Economic sensitivity poses balanced risks to upside and downside." ], "target_price_6m": 31, "target_price_12m": 30 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 345, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.003Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2242, "outputTokens": 4733, "costUsd": 0.002616 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7p18011np658wmjmjoqd", "runId": "cmnqz7p13011kp658nd488598", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_AI_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"SANB11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 31.41,\n \"target_price_6m\": 31.80,\n \"target_price_12m\": 32.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Valuation appears stretched at 1.8x P/B given the current sub-par 10.2% ROE.\",\n \"Asset quality is stabilizing, but cost of risk remains a drag on profitability.\",\n \"Net interest income faces pressure from a challenging mix and higher funding costs.\",\n \"Strong dividend yield of 6.9% provides downside protection while the turnaround executes.\",\n \"Competition from digital banks limits aggressive fee expansion and retail market share gains.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Selic Rate Trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Non-Performing Loans (NPL) Cycle\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Retail Credit Origination\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost of Risk / Provisions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital Bank Competition\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee Income Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher unemployment and NPLs.\",\n \"Regulatory caps on revolving credit card interest rates impacting NII.\",\n \"Inability to close the ROE gap with top-tier peers like Itaú and Banco do Brasil.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing funding costs and squeezing spreads.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 9.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 26.00,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"NPLs rise due to macro headwinds, delaying ROE recovery and compressing multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 32.50,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual improvement in cost of risk and modest NII growth supports a slow ROE recovery to 13%.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 38.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Faster-than-expected Selic cuts spur credit growth and sharp drop in provisions, driving ROE above 15%.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a Residual Income Model and Gordon Growth, assuming a 13.5% CoE and gradual ROE recovery to 13%. The 32.50 BRL 12M target implies a ~3.4% upside, supporting a HOLD rating given mixed evidence and high P/B relative to peers. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_AI_v1", "risks": [ "Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher unemployment and NPLs.", "Regulatory caps on revolving credit card interest rates impacting NII.", "Inability to close the ROE gap with top-tier peers like Itaú and Banco do Brasil.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing funding costs and squeezing spreads." ], "ticker": "SANB11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual improvement in cost of risk and modest NII growth supports a slow ROE recovery to 13%.", "target_price": 32.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "NPLs rise due to macro headwinds, delaying ROE recovery and compressing multiples.", "target_price": 26 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Faster-than-expected Selic cuts spur credit growth and sharp drop in provisions, driving ROE above 15%.", "target_price": 38 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 9, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Selic Rate Trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Non-Performing Loans (NPL) Cycle", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Retail Credit Origination", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost of Risk / Provisions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital Bank Competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fee Income Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a Residual Income Model and Gordon Growth, assuming a 13.5% CoE and gradual ROE recovery to 13%. The 32.50 BRL 12M target implies a ~3.4% upside, supporting a HOLD rating given mixed evidence and high P/B relative to peers. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 31.41, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation appears stretched at 1.8x P/B given the current sub-par 10.2% ROE.", "Asset quality is stabilizing, but cost of risk remains a drag on profitability.", "Net interest income faces pressure from a challenging mix and higher funding costs.", "Strong dividend yield of 6.9% provides downside protection while the turnaround executes.", "Competition from digital banks limits aggressive fee expansion and retail market share gains." ], "target_price_6m": 31.8, "target_price_12m": 32.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 36122, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.003Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2439, "outputTokens": 897, "costUsd": 0.015642 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7p18011lp658zgn0fhzo", "runId": "cmnqz7p13011kp658nd488598", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"SANB11\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":31.41,\"target_price_6m\":32.2,\"target_price_12m\":33,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Dividend yield supports returns, but much recovery appears priced in.\",\"Lower rates should help volumes and funding costs over 12 months.\",\"Credit-cost normalization remains the main earnings swing factor.\",\"ROE still trails stronger private-bank peers, capping multiple expansion.\",\"Parent backing and franchise scale limit downside risk.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Selic easing and funding mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Retail and SME loan growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit cost normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee and insurance momentum\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Unsecured retail asset quality\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Fintech and peer competition\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital and dividend capacity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazil macro activity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Higher NPLs in consumer and SME books\",\"Rate cuts compress spreads faster than funding reprices\",\"Regulatory or tax changes reduce profitability\",\"Weaker Brazil growth hurts volumes and recoveries\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.15,\"terminal_multiple\":1.85},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":27.5,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Credit costs stay elevated and margins tighten faster than expected.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":33,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Moderate loan growth, stable asset quality and sustained dividends.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":37,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Faster credit normalization lifts ROE and supports rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valued mainly on justified P/B from mid-cycle ROE and BRL cost of equity, cross-checked with earnings yield and dividend carry; sell-side targets not used. Snapshot fields kept authoritative. Base-case 12M upside is ~5%, so HOLD. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Higher NPLs in consumer and SME books", "Rate cuts compress spreads faster than funding reprices", "Regulatory or tax changes reduce profitability", "Weaker Brazil growth hurts volumes and recoveries" ], "ticker": "SANB11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate loan growth, stable asset quality and sustained dividends.", "target_price": 33 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Credit costs stay elevated and margins tighten faster than expected.", "target_price": 27.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Faster credit normalization lifts ROE and supports rerating.", "target_price": 37 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.15, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 1.85, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Selic easing and funding mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Retail and SME loan growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit cost normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee and insurance momentum", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Unsecured retail asset quality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fintech and peer competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital and dividend capacity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazil macro activity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valued mainly on justified P/B from mid-cycle ROE and BRL cost of equity, cross-checked with earnings yield and dividend carry; sell-side targets not used. Snapshot fields kept authoritative. Base-case 12M upside is ~5%, so HOLD. not investment advice", "current_price": 31.41, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dividend yield supports returns, but much recovery appears priced in.", "Lower rates should help volumes and funding costs over 12 months.", "Credit-cost normalization remains the main earnings swing factor.", "ROE still trails stronger private-bank peers, capping multiple expansion.", "Parent backing and franchise scale limit downside risk." ], "target_price_6m": 32.2, "target_price_12m": 33 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_07d94918777df36d0069d72cf7ccdc8190a161ec9ed5fba5e4", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 40493, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.003Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2450, "outputTokens": 2418, "costUsd": 0.038139 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7p18011op658ep1lgm5n", "runId": "cmnqz7p13011kp658nd488598", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"SANB11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 31.41,\n \"target_price_6m\": 33.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 36.2,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Attractive 6.9% dividend yield supports income case.\",\n \"Stable 10% ROE and 1.8x P/B appear reasonable.\",\n \"Digital push drives efficiency and client growth.\",\n \"Low 3-4% revenue growth caps earnings upside.\",\n \"Brazil macro recovery offers balanced risk-reward.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brazil GDP expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Net interest margins\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital cost efficiencies\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Loan book growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Asset quality trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory tightening\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fintech competition\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged Brazil recession raising NPLs\",\n \"Tighter banking regulations and fees\",\n \"Intensified competition from digital banks\",\n \"Rising funding costs compressing NIM\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.07,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.12,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 1.85\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 26.5,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Deep recession drives higher provisions and lower ROE.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 36.2,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady macro with stable margins and dividends.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 44.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong growth lifts lending volumes and profitability.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"P/B and dividend discount valuation using assumptions above; 15% 12M upside supports BUY. Consensus targets not used as input. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged Brazil recession raising NPLs", "Tighter banking regulations and fees", "Intensified competition from digital banks", "Rising funding costs compressing NIM" ], "ticker": "SANB11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady macro with stable margins and dividends.", "target_price": 36.2 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Deep recession drives higher provisions and lower ROE.", "target_price": 26.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth lifts lending volumes and profitability.", "target_price": 44 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 1.85, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazil GDP expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital cost efficiencies", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Loan book growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Asset quality trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory tightening", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fintech competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "P/B and dividend discount valuation using assumptions above; 15% 12M upside supports BUY. Consensus targets not used as input. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 31.41, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive 6.9% dividend yield supports income case.", "Stable 10% ROE and 1.8x P/B appear reasonable.", "Digital push drives efficiency and client growth.", "Low 3-4% revenue growth caps earnings upside.", "Brazil macro recovery offers balanced risk-reward." ], "target_price_6m": 33.8, "target_price_12m": 36.2 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "32eb28fe-0d78-97e0-b1a5-0ff0c443263f", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18888, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:50.003Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2792, "outputTokens": 2790, "costUsd": 0.050226 } } ] } }