{ "run": { "id": "cmnqz7oos010ep658zhnqig1w", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqz7on30106p658fueqvnvs", "ticker": "RECV3", "snapshotId": "cmnqz7onu010ap6584y24mkc7", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:49.561Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqz7onu010ap6584y24mkc7", "assetId": "cmnqz7on30106p658fueqvnvs", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 13.06, "price": 13.77, "dayLow": 13, "volume": 4471700, "dayHigh": 13.79, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 13.69, "week52Low": 10.07, "week52High": 16.13 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 6.318542651310054, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 2.1795305, "fcfTTM": -41529000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 18.675514, "revenueYoy": 2.744011 }, "sector": "Energia", "margins": { "net": 0.20216309, "gross": 0.32348403, "operating": 0.22852069 }, "website": "https://www.petroreconcavo.com.br", "industry": "Exploração e Produção de Petróleo", "pegRatio": 0.0034709885, "ebitdaTTM": 1442656000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 4137216707, "totalCash": 1625018000, "totalDebt": 3782836000, "debtEquity": 0.87348974, "quickRatio": 3.4746156, "revenueTTM": 3157609000, "companyName": "Petroreconcavo SA", "priceToBook": 0.9554903, "currentRatio": 3.484527, "dividendYield": 0.09015708061002178, "returnOnAssets": 0.07364454, "returnOnEquity": 0.14740103, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A PetroReconcavo S.A., listada na B3 sob o ticker RECV3, é uma operadora independente brasileira dedicada à exploração e produção de petróleo e gás natural, com foco em ativos terrestres. A companhia foi fundada no contexto de abertura do setor de óleo e gás no Brasil após a Lei do Petróleo de 1997.\n\nSeu modelo de atuação é especializado em campos maduros onshore, com ênfase em recuperação de produção, extensão de vida útil dos reservatórios e disciplina de custos. As operações se concentram em polos no Recôncavo e na Bacia Potiguar, com infraestrutura própria de perfuração, workover e tratamento de produção.\n\nNos últimos anos, a empresa expandiu o portfólio por aquisições de ativos desinvestidos por grandes operadoras e avançou na integração operacional desses polos. A estratégia combina ganhos de eficiência técnica, previsibilidade de produção e contratos de comercialização de petróleo…", "enterpriseValue": 6295775000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 1868, "sharesOutstanding": 293472130, "enterpriseToEbitda": 4.364017, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.9938425, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1504449000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:49.531Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqz7oov010gp6589vwcrngi", "runId": "cmnqz7oos010ep658zhnqig1w", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"RECV3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":13.77,\"target_price_6m\":15.20,\"target_price_12m\":16.50,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Deeply discounted at 6.3x PE and 0.96x P/B with 14.7% ROE\",\"EV/EBITDA of 4.4x materially below global onshore E&P peers\",\"Attractive ~9% dividend yield provides downside cushion\",\"EPS grew 18.7% YoY demonstrating operational efficiency gains\",\"Negative FCF despite strong operating cash flow signals heavy reinvestment risk\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Brent oil price realization on Brazilian onshore production\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Mature field recovery techniques extending reservoir life\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Heavy capex driving negative FCF despite BRL 1.5B operating cashflow\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Acquisition-driven portfolio expansion in decommissioned fields\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"BRL/USD exchange rate impacting realized oil revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Total debt of BRL 3.8B vs equity creating leverage risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Low revenue growth of 2.7% YoY suggests production plateau\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory environment for onshore E&P in Brazil\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong liquidity with 3.5x current ratio\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Oil price downturn compressing margins and dividends\",\"Persistent negative FCF may force dividend cuts or capital raises\",\"High debt load vulnerable to rising Brazilian interest rates\",\"Production decline in mature fields faster than anticipated\",\"Regulatory or fiscal changes in Brazilian oil sector\",\"Integration risks from acquired assets underperforming expectations\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.23,\"wacc\":0.14,\"terminal_multiple\":5.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":11.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Oil below USD 60/bbl, FCF stays negative, dividend cut triggers de-rating to 5x PE.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":16.50,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Stable oil prices, modest production growth, partial valuation re-rating toward 7.5x PE.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":19.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Oil above USD 80/bbl, FCF turns positive, multiple re-rates to 8.5x PE on peer convergence.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Cycle-normalized valuation anchored on EV/EBITDA (4.4x current vs 5.0x target) and PE re-rating from 6.3x toward 7.5x. Onshore mature-field specialist warrants discount to deepwater peers but current sub-1x P/B with 14.7% ROE signals undervaluation. Negative FCF is key constraint limiting confidence. 12M return ~19.8% supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Oil price downturn compressing margins and dividends", "Persistent negative FCF may force dividend cuts or capital raises", "High debt load vulnerable to rising Brazilian interest rates", "Production decline in mature fields faster than anticipated", "Regulatory or fiscal changes in Brazilian oil sector", "Integration risks from acquired assets underperforming expectations" ], "ticker": "RECV3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable oil prices, modest production growth, partial valuation re-rating toward 7.5x PE.", "target_price": 16.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Oil below USD 60/bbl, FCF stays negative, dividend cut triggers de-rating to 5x PE.", "target_price": 11 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Oil above USD 80/bbl, FCF turns positive, multiple re-rates to 8.5x PE on peer convergence.", "target_price": 19 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brent oil price realization on Brazilian onshore production", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mature field recovery techniques extending reservoir life", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Heavy capex driving negative FCF despite BRL 1.5B operating cashflow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Acquisition-driven portfolio expansion in decommissioned fields", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "BRL/USD exchange rate impacting realized oil revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Total debt of BRL 3.8B vs equity creating leverage risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Low revenue growth of 2.7% YoY suggests production plateau", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory environment for onshore E&P in Brazil", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong liquidity with 3.5x current ratio", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Cycle-normalized valuation anchored on EV/EBITDA (4.4x current vs 5.0x target) and PE re-rating from 6.3x toward 7.5x. Onshore mature-field specialist warrants discount to deepwater peers but current sub-1x P/B with 14.7% ROE signals undervaluation. Negative FCF is key constraint limiting confidence. 12M return ~19.8% supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 13.77, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Deeply discounted at 6.3x PE and 0.96x P/B with 14.7% ROE", "EV/EBITDA of 4.4x materially below global onshore E&P peers", "Attractive ~9% dividend yield provides downside cushion", "EPS grew 18.7% YoY demonstrating operational efficiency gains", "Negative FCF despite strong operating cash flow signals heavy reinvestment risk" ], "target_price_6m": 15.2, "target_price_12m": 16.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 44769, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:49.561Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3759, "outputTokens": 1891, "costUsd": 0.06607 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7oov010jp658hetoagjs", "runId": "cmnqz7oos010ep658zhnqig1w", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"equity_research_analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RECV3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 13.77,\n \"target_price_6m\": 16.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 18.4,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Focus on mature onshore oil fields with cost discipline.\",\n \"Strong operating margins and high dividend yield support returns.\",\n \"Low valuation multiples relative to peers offer upside potential.\",\n \"Recent acquisitions may drive production and revenue growth.\",\n \"Exposure to oil price volatility and Brazilian regulatory risks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Oil price trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency improvements\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt reduction and cash management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Production growth from asset acquisitions\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brazilian economic and political stability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Currency exchange rate (BRL/USD) fluctuations\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes in energy sector\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Commodity price downturn reducing revenue.\",\n \"Operational disruptions in mature fields.\",\n \"High debt levels increasing financial risk.\",\n \"Regulatory uncertainties in Brazil.\",\n \"Acquisition integration challenges.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.23,\n \"wacc\": 0.12,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 5.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 12.27, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Lower multiples and no growth due to oil price drop.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 18.4, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Modest growth and multiple expansion as per assumptions.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 25.02, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Higher multiples and strong growth from successful acquisitions.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on EV/EBITDA multiples with growth assumptions. BUY due to ~34% upside to 12M target, but confidence medium given cyclical risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "equity_research_analyst", "risks": [ "Commodity price downturn reducing revenue.", "Operational disruptions in mature fields.", "High debt levels increasing financial risk.", "Regulatory uncertainties in Brazil.", "Acquisition integration challenges." ], "ticker": "RECV3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Modest growth and multiple expansion as per assumptions.", "target_price": 18.4 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Lower multiples and no growth due to oil price drop.", "target_price": 12.27 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Higher multiples and strong growth from successful acquisitions.", "target_price": 25.02 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Oil price trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency improvements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction and cash management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Production growth from asset acquisitions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian economic and political stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Currency exchange rate (BRL/USD) fluctuations", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes in energy sector", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on EV/EBITDA multiples with growth assumptions. BUY due to ~34% upside to 12M target, but confidence medium given cyclical risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 13.77, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Focus on mature onshore oil fields with cost discipline.", "Strong operating margins and high dividend yield support returns.", "Low valuation multiples relative to peers offer upside potential.", "Recent acquisitions may drive production and revenue growth.", "Exposure to oil price volatility and Brazilian regulatory risks." ], "target_price_6m": 16, "target_price_12m": 18.4 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 327, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:27:49.561Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2250, "outputTokens": 3768, "costUsd": 0.002213 } }, { "id": "cmnqz7oov010hp658tt6fmkcl", "runId": "cmnqz7oos010ep658zhnqig1w", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_E&P_Onshore\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RECV3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 13.77,\n \"target_price_6m\": 16.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 18.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"STRONG_BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.80,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Undemanding valuation at 4.4x EV/EBITDA offers a strong margin of safety.\",\n \"Attractive 9% dividend yield provides solid downside protection during multiple re-rating.\",\n \"Proven track record in revitalizing mature onshore fields in Potiguar and Recôncavo.\",\n \"Negative FCF reflects heavy capex cycle, expected to normalize as production ramps.\",\n \"Highly sensitive to Brent and FX, providing natural hedge against BRL depreciation.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brent Crude Price\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"USD/BRL Exchange Rate\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Production Volume Ramps\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Lifting Cost Reductions\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capex Execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Reserve Replacement Ratio\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Significant drop in global Brent crude oil prices.\",\n \"Execution delays or cost overruns in mature field workovers.\",\n \"Regulatory changes or stricter environmental licensing in Brazil.\",\n \"Higher-than-expected natural decline rates in legacy onshore wells.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 4.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 11.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Brent drops below $65, production misses targets, and high capex strains liquidity.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 18.00,\n \"prob\": 0.60,\n \"notes\": \"Steady production growth, Brent stabilizes around $75-$80, and capex normalizes yielding FCF.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 22.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Brent surges past $90, rapid production ramp-up, and significant lifting cost reductions achieved.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF and EV/EBITDA multiples. Base case assumes 4.5x terminal multiple and 13.5% WACC. The probability-weighted expected value implies >26% upside, justifying a STRONG_BUY. This is not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_E&P_Onshore", "risks": [ "Significant drop in global Brent crude oil prices.", "Execution delays or cost overruns in mature field workovers.", "Regulatory changes or stricter environmental licensing in Brazil.", "Higher-than-expected natural decline rates in legacy onshore wells." ], "ticker": "RECV3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady production growth, Brent stabilizes around $75-$80, and capex normalizes yielding FCF.", "target_price": 18 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Brent drops below $65, production misses targets, and high capex strains liquidity.", "target_price": 11 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Brent surges past $90, rapid production ramp-up, and significant lifting cost reductions achieved.", "target_price": 22 } }, "confidence": 0.8, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 4.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brent Crude Price", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "USD/BRL Exchange Rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Production Volume Ramps", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Lifting Cost Reductions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex Execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Reserve Replacement Ratio", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF and EV/EBITDA multiples. Base case assumes 4.5x terminal multiple and 13.5% WACC. The probability-weighted expected value implies >26% upside, justifying a STRONG_BUY. 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