{ "run": { "id": "cmnqyvgt400gup658oss0ydmg", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqyvgse00gqp658fbdhc2wg", "ticker": "ENGI11", "snapshotId": "cmnqyvgsq00gsp6585eahth60", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.477Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqyvgsq00gsp6585eahth60", "assetId": "cmnqyvgse00gqp658fbdhc2wg", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 56.8, "price": 55.34, "dayLow": 54.86, "volume": 3647800, "dayHigh": 56.8, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 55.51, "week52Low": 36.13636367, "week52High": 56.8 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 0, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 1.0466907, "fcfTTM": -164148020, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.48176295, "revenueYoy": 2.7079744 }, "sector": "Energia", "margins": { "net": 0.0885991, "gross": 0.2538741, "operating": 0.19053863 }, "website": "https://www.grupoenergisa.com.br", "industry": "Energia Elétrica", "pegRatio": 0.25582206, "ebitdaTTM": 8874778000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 0, "totalCash": 10473245000, "totalDebt": 55031927000, "debtEquity": 2.5977395, "quickRatio": 1.5448444, "revenueTTM": 35441353000, "companyName": "Energisa SA Units Cons of 1 Sh + 4 Pfd Shs", "priceToBook": 7.6201777, "currentRatio": 1.5564111, "dividendYield": 0.03074006685941453, "returnOnAssets": 0.037618425, "returnOnEquity": 0.14822467, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A Energisa S.A., negociada na B3 sob os códigos ENGI3, ENGI4 e ENGI11, é um grupo brasileiro de energia com origem em 1905. A companhia atua no setor elétrico com estrutura de holding e operações em diferentes elos da cadeia.\n\nO grupo opera distribuição de energia por meio de concessionárias em vários estados, além de ativos de transmissão, geração e comercialização. Também expandiu sua atuação para serviços e soluções energéticas e, mais recentemente, para distribuição de gás em ativos específicos.\n\nNo mercado nacional, a empresa se posiciona entre os grandes grupos privados de energia com capital brasileiro, competindo em ambientes regulados e no mercado livre. Seu modelo combina receitas de concessões de distribuição com expansão em linhas de transmissão e negócios complementares.\n\nA Energisa possui presença geográfica ampla no Brasil e atende milhões de consumidores finais em centena…", "enterpriseValue": 205988680000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 16000, "sharesOutstanding": 3000000000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 23.210573, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 5.8121, "operatingCashflowTTM": 6065954000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.466Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqyvgt700gwp658hjj5n13a", "runId": "cmnqyvgt400gup658oss0ydmg", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ENGI11\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":55.34,\"target_price_6m\":57.5,\"target_price_12m\":60.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility with predictable RAB-based cash flows and tariff resets\",\"Strong revenue and EPS growth driven by recent acquisitions and consolidation\",\"Elevated EV/EBITDA of 23x limits near-term re-rating potential\",\"Negative FCF reflects heavy capex cycle expanding regulated asset base\",\"Dividend yield ~3% plus capital appreciation offers reasonable total return\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"RAB growth from capex deployment in distribution and transmission\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian interest rate trajectory affecting discount rates\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory tariff review outcomes for distribution concessions\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High leverage (D/E 2.6x) amplifying equity sensitivity to rates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF from investment cycle requiring continued debt issuance\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue growth from consolidation of new concession areas\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion toward 20% as scale benefits materialize\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro risk from BRL depreciation impacting indexed debt\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Regulatory changes reducing allowed returns on distribution concessions\",\"Interest rate increases raising cost of debt and compressing equity multiples\",\"Execution risk integrating recent acquisitions at target synergy levels\",\"Hydrological risk affecting energy purchase costs for distributors\",\"Foreign-exchange-linked debt exposure in a weakening BRL scenario\",\"Political or regulatory intervention on tariff pass-throughs\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.20,\"wacc\":0.125,\"terminal_multiple\":8.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":46.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Rate hikes and regulatory setbacks compress multiples and slow RAB growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":60.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady RAB expansion, tariff resets at expected returns, modest multiple stability.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":72.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerated rate cuts, above-plan RAB growth, successful integration of acquisitions.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Utility-focused valuation using RAB growth, regulated return framework, and EV/EBITDA anchor. Current EV/EBITDA of 23.2x appears elevated; base case assumes normalization toward ~18-20x on higher forward EBITDA as capex converts to RAB. 12M target implies ~8.4% total return (capital + ~3% yield) consistent with BUY. Confidence moderate due to stretched multiples and macro sensitivity. Snapshot P/E field shows 0 (likely data issue); implied P/E ~52.7x from EPS TTM of 1.05. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Regulatory changes reducing allowed returns on distribution concessions", "Interest rate increases raising cost of debt and compressing equity multiples", "Execution risk integrating recent acquisitions at target synergy levels", "Hydrological risk affecting energy purchase costs for distributors", "Foreign-exchange-linked debt exposure in a weakening BRL scenario", "Political or regulatory intervention on tariff pass-throughs" ], "ticker": "ENGI11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady RAB expansion, tariff resets at expected returns, modest multiple stability.", "target_price": 60 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rate hikes and regulatory setbacks compress multiples and slow RAB growth.", "target_price": 46 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated rate cuts, above-plan RAB growth, successful integration of acquisitions.", "target_price": 72 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.125, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "RAB growth from capex deployment in distribution and transmission", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian interest rate trajectory affecting discount rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory tariff review outcomes for distribution concessions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High leverage (D/E 2.6x) amplifying equity sensitivity to rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF from investment cycle requiring continued debt issuance", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth from consolidation of new concession areas", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion toward 20% as scale benefits materialize", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro risk from BRL depreciation impacting indexed debt", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Utility-focused valuation using RAB growth, regulated return framework, and EV/EBITDA anchor. Current EV/EBITDA of 23.2x appears elevated; base case assumes normalization toward ~18-20x on higher forward EBITDA as capex converts to RAB. 12M target implies ~8.4% total return (capital + ~3% yield) consistent with BUY. Confidence moderate due to stretched multiples and macro sensitivity. Snapshot P/E field shows 0 (likely data issue); implied P/E ~52.7x from EPS TTM of 1.05. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 55.34, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility with predictable RAB-based cash flows and tariff resets", "Strong revenue and EPS growth driven by recent acquisitions and consolidation", "Elevated EV/EBITDA of 23x limits near-term re-rating potential", "Negative FCF reflects heavy capex cycle expanding regulated asset base", "Dividend yield ~3% plus capital appreciation offers reasonable total return" ], "target_price_6m": 57.5, "target_price_12m": 60 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 46372, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.477Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3747, "outputTokens": 2150, "costUsd": 0.072485 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgt700gzp658aayck9pu", "runId": "cmnqyvgt400gup658oss0ydmg", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ENGI11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 55.34,\n \"target_price_6m\": 55.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 56.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Stable regulated utility cash flows.\", \"High debt levels increase financial risk.\", \"Valuation multiples appear stretched vs peers.\", \"Gas and services expansion offers growth.\", \"Regulatory uncertainty in Brazil persists.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Regulated revenue stability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt burden\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"EV/EBITDA multiple\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Revenue growth from new segments\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Operating cash flow generation\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest rate sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Dividend yield attractiveness\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Regulatory changes in energy sector\", \"High leverage risk\", \"Economic downturn impact\", \"Currency volatility (BRL)\", \"Market competition\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.025,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.19,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 46.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Multiple compression to 20x EV/EBITDA.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 56.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Stable multiples with modest growth.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 62.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Higher growth and multiple expansion.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation using EV/EBITDA DCF with growth assumptions. Expected return near zero, thus HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Regulatory changes in energy sector", "High leverage risk", "Economic downturn impact", "Currency volatility (BRL)", "Market competition" ], "ticker": "ENGI11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Stable multiples with modest growth.", "target_price": 56 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Multiple compression to 20x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 46 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Higher growth and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 62 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.025, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.19 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulated revenue stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt burden", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EV/EBITDA multiple", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth from new segments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating cash flow generation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield attractiveness", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation using EV/EBITDA DCF with growth assumptions. Expected return near zero, thus HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 55.34, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated utility cash flows.", "High debt levels increase financial risk.", "Valuation multiples appear stretched vs peers.", "Gas and services expansion offers growth.", "Regulatory uncertainty in Brazil persists." ], "target_price_6m": 55.5, "target_price_12m": 56 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 335, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.477Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2238, "outputTokens": 3938, "costUsd": 0.002281 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgt700gxp6585lzt0qjk", "runId": "cmnqyvgt400gup658oss0ydmg", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity-Analyzer-Pro-v2\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ENGI11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 55.34,\n \"target_price_6m\": 56.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 58.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong track record in turning around underperforming distribution assets across Brazil.\",\n \"Diversification into transmission and natural gas provides new long-term growth avenues.\",\n \"High leverage (D/E 2.6x) increases sensitivity to domestic interest rate fluctuations.\",\n \"Current valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA ~23x) appear stretched relative to historical utility averages.\",\n \"Trading near 52-week highs; risk/reward profile suggests limited near-term upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tariff Review Cycles\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Domestic Interest Rates (Selic)\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Transmission Capex Execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Natural Gas Expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Hydrological Risk / Energy Prices\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt Servicing Costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory Changes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged high interest rates increasing financial expenses and pressuring net income.\",\n \"Adverse outcomes in upcoming distribution tariff review cycles.\",\n \"Execution delays or cost overruns in new transmission and gas projects.\",\n \"Regulatory intervention or changes in the Brazilian power sector framework.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.2,\n \"wacc\": 0.115,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 45.0,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Higher interest rates pressure margins and regulatory reviews are unfavorable.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 58.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution of capex and stable margins justify a slight premium to historicals.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 68.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accretive M&A, favorable tariff revisions, and falling Selic rate boost valuation.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and EV/RAB multiples. High leverage and current EV/EBITDA limit upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation (+4.8% expected return). Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Equity-Analyzer-Pro-v2", "risks": [ "Prolonged high interest rates increasing financial expenses and pressuring net income.", "Adverse outcomes in upcoming distribution tariff review cycles.", "Execution delays or cost overruns in new transmission and gas projects.", "Regulatory intervention or changes in the Brazilian power sector framework." ], "ticker": "ENGI11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution of capex and stable margins justify a slight premium to historicals.", "target_price": 58 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Higher interest rates pressure margins and regulatory reviews are unfavorable.", "target_price": 45 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accretive M&A, favorable tariff revisions, and falling Selic rate boost valuation.", "target_price": 68 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.115, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Tariff Review Cycles", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Domestic Interest Rates (Selic)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Transmission Capex Execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Natural Gas Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Hydrological Risk / Energy Prices", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt Servicing Costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Changes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and EV/RAB multiples. High leverage and current EV/EBITDA limit upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation (+4.8% expected return). Not investment advice.", "current_price": 55.34, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong track record in turning around underperforming distribution assets across Brazil.", "Diversification into transmission and natural gas provides new long-term growth avenues.", "High leverage (D/E 2.6x) increases sensitivity to domestic interest rate fluctuations.", "Current valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA ~23x) appear stretched relative to historical utility averages.", "Trading near 52-week highs; risk/reward profile suggests limited near-term upside." ], "target_price_6m": 56.5, "target_price_12m": 58 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26139, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.477Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2452, "outputTokens": 860, "costUsd": 0.015224 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgt700gvp6588ciso0br", "runId": "cmnqyvgt400gup658oss0ydmg", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ENGI11\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":55.34,\"target_price_6m\":51.2,\"target_price_12m\":48.8,\"recommendation\":\"SELL\",\"confidence\":0.57,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated distribution assets support resilient demand and tariff pass-through.\",\"Earnings improved, but FCF remains negative amid capex and working-capital needs.\",\"Leverage is high for a rising-rate emerging-market utility.\",\"Valuation looks stretched versus modest yield and mid-single-digit utility growth.\",\"Near 52-week highs, upside seems limited without faster cash conversion.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Tariff resets and pass-through\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Distribution volume growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Transmission and gas expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capex intensity\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt burden\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operational loss reductions\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend support\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Tariff review outcomes disappoint.\",\"Higher rates pressure financing costs.\",\"Capex overruns delay cash recovery.\",\"Regulatory or political intervention.\",\"Snapshot fundamentals contain data anomalies.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":7.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":20.0,\"wacc\":10.8,\"terminal_multiple\":8.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":41,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rates stay high and cash conversion remains weak.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":49,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Stable tariffs and growth are offset by leverage and capex.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":58,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Execution improves cash flow and premium valuation holds.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Used snapshot quote exactly. 12M target is scenario-weighted from a normalized utility valuation using margins, cash flow and debt; stretched valuation, leverage and negative FCF drive downside despite defensive assets. Snapshot market-cap/multiple fields appear inconsistent, so I relied less on them. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Tariff review outcomes disappoint.", "Higher rates pressure financing costs.", "Capex overruns delay cash recovery.", "Regulatory or political intervention.", "Snapshot fundamentals contain data anomalies." ], "ticker": "ENGI11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable tariffs and growth are offset by leverage and capex.", "target_price": 49 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rates stay high and cash conversion remains weak.", "target_price": 41 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Execution improves cash flow and premium valuation holds.", "target_price": 58 } }, "confidence": 0.57, "assumptions": { "wacc": 10.8, "revenue_cagr_3y": 7.5, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 20 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Tariff resets and pass-through", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Distribution volume growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Transmission and gas expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex intensity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net debt burden", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational loss reductions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend support", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Used snapshot quote exactly. 12M target is scenario-weighted from a normalized utility valuation using margins, cash flow and debt; stretched valuation, leverage and negative FCF drive downside despite defensive assets. Snapshot market-cap/multiple fields appear inconsistent, so I relied less on them. not investment advice", "current_price": 55.34, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated distribution assets support resilient demand and tariff pass-through.", "Earnings improved, but FCF remains negative amid capex and working-capital needs.", "Leverage is high for a rising-rate emerging-market utility.", "Valuation looks stretched versus modest yield and mid-single-digit utility growth.", "Near 52-week highs, upside seems limited without faster cash conversion." ], "target_price_6m": 51.2, "target_price_12m": 48.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_098e537ae87dbf260069d72a462a208190a6cb9dded4cb6db7", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 33892, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.477Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2463, "outputTokens": 2213, "costUsd": 0.035292 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgt700gyp658ly4iiss3", "runId": "cmnqyvgt400gup658oss0ydmg", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ENGI11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 55.34,\n \"target_price_6m\": 58.2,\n \"target_price_12m\": 63.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable regulated revenues from electricity distribution\",\n \"Transmission expansion drives EBITDA and growth\",\n \"High leverage increases interest rate sensitivity\",\n \"Expected positive tariff revisions in next cycle\",\n \"Moderate upside on base DCF assumptions\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tariff reset outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Transmission expansions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory framework stability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regional economic growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt refinancing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Energy transition projects\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse tariff regulatory decisions\",\n \"Rising rates on elevated debt\",\n \"Delays in transmission projects\",\n \"Political or regulatory shifts\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.075,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.2,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 49.5,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Unfavorable regulations and high rates compress multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 63.5,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"On-track growth and stable operations deliver fair value.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 75,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong tariff gains and expansions drive outperformance.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with 3yr explicit forecast, target EBIT margin and terminal EV/EBITDA multiple. 15% 12M upside supports BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Adverse tariff regulatory decisions", "Rising rates on elevated debt", "Delays in transmission projects", "Political or regulatory shifts" ], "ticker": "ENGI11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "On-track growth and stable operations deliver fair value.", "target_price": 63.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Unfavorable regulations and high rates compress multiples.", "target_price": 49.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong tariff gains and expansions drive outperformance.", "target_price": 75 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Tariff reset outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Transmission expansions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory framework stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regional economic growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt refinancing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy transition projects", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with 3yr explicit forecast, target EBIT margin and terminal EV/EBITDA multiple. 15% 12M upside supports BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 55.34, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated revenues from electricity distribution", "Transmission expansion drives EBITDA and growth", "High leverage increases interest rate sensitivity", "Expected positive tariff revisions in next cycle", "Moderate upside on base DCF assumptions" ], "target_price_6m": 58.2, "target_price_12m": 63.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "3e8e73ce-f33e-9ba0-aed8-a8a39f2e21b7", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21249, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.477Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2804, "outputTokens": 3705, "costUsd": 0.063987 } } ] } }