{ "run": { "id": "cmnqyvgj100g0p6584fhc0edi", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqyvgic00fup658k503s0qh", "ticker": "EMBJ3", "snapshotId": "cmnqyvgin00fwp658uw5udnyx", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.114Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqyvgin00fwp658uw5udnyx", "assetId": "cmnqyvgic00fup658k503s0qh", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 87.39, "price": 85.19, "dayLow": 83.62, "volume": 8182700, "dayHigh": 87.39, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 85.16, "week52Low": 59.65, "week52High": 106 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 31.89083966608019, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 2.6712853, "fcfTTM": 1901489000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 8.135899, "revenueYoy": 2.047503 }, "sector": "Bens Industriais", "margins": { "net": 0.04756168, "gross": 0.1756871, "operating": 0.079939246 }, "website": "https://www.embraer.com/", "industry": "Material Aeronáutico e de Defesa", "pegRatio": 0.03727679, "ebitdaTTM": 4789271000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 59938688482, "totalCash": 14448992000, "totalDebt": 24495921000, "debtEquity": 1.1678655, "quickRatio": 0.8154739, "revenueTTM": 41883234000, "companyName": "Embraer S.A.", "priceToBook": 2.8803186, "currentRatio": 1.5015833, "dividendYield": 0.003416350628007983, "returnOnAssets": 0.028020518, "returnOnEquity": 0.09497219, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A Embraer S.A., listada na B3 sob o ticker EMBR3, foi fundada em 19 de agosto de 1969 e é uma fabricante brasileira de aeronaves e sistemas aeroespaciais. A companhia atua nos mercados civil e de defesa, com presença internacional em projeto, produção e suporte de aeronaves.\n\nA estrutura operacional da empresa inclui aviação comercial, aviação executiva, defesa e segurança, além de serviços e suporte pós-venda. Seu portfólio abrange jatos regionais, jatos executivos, aeronaves militares e soluções associadas de manutenção, treinamento e modernização de frota.\n\nNo cenário competitivo global, a Embraer disputa nichos específicos com grandes fabricantes internacionais e mantém posição relevante em aeronaves de menor capacidade e em segmentos de alto valor agregado. A companhia combina engenharia, certificação e cadeia industrial para sustentar participação em mercados cíclicos da indústria …", "enterpriseValue": 70461470000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 18997, "sharesOutstanding": 740465000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 14.7123575, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.6823312, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4483900000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.103Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqyvgj300g4p6580j4ff7iq", "runId": "cmnqyvgj100g0p6584fhc0edi", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EMBJ3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":85.19,\"target_price_6m\":90.0,\"target_price_12m\":95.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong backlog supports revenue visibility over medium term\",\"Margin expansion story from 4.8% net to double digits plausible\",\"EV/EBITDA 14.7x reasonable for global aerospace peer group\",\"Stock 20% off 52-week high creates entry opportunity\",\"Elevated debt-to-equity of 1.17 limits financial flexibility\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Commercial aviation backlog conversion and new E2 orders\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Defense and security segment growth from geopolitical demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin improvement toward 10%+ from current 8%\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Executive aviation demand resilience\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Aftermarket services recurring revenue growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"BRL appreciation risk compressing USD-denominated revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"High leverage with BRL 24.5B total debt\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Global macro slowdown impacting airline capex\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Global aviation cycle downturn reducing order intake\",\"BRL/USD volatility compressing translated margins and revenue\",\"Supply chain disruptions delaying aircraft deliveries\",\"Rising interest rates increasing cost of BRL 24.5B debt load\",\"Competition from larger OEMs (Airbus, Boeing) in regional segment\",\"Geopolitical risks affecting defense export contracts\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.10,\"wacc\":0.13,\"terminal_multiple\":12.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":68.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Aviation downturn, margin stagnation, multiple compression to 10x EV/EBITDA.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":95.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady backlog execution, gradual margin expansion, ~12x forward EV/EBITDA.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":115.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerated E2 orders, defense wins, margins reach 11%+, re-rating to 14x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and FCF yield approach. 3Y revenue CAGR ~8% driven by backlog and defense. EBIT margin from 8% to 10% supports earnings growth. 12x terminal EV/EBITDA on ~BRL 6.2B forward EBITDA yields EV ~74B; less net debt ~10B gives equity ~64B or ~BRL 86/sh base, adjusted for earnings momentum to 95. PEG ratio in snapshot (0.037) appears anomalous. Ticker mapped to Embraer EMBR3 on B3. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Global aviation cycle downturn reducing order intake", "BRL/USD volatility compressing translated margins and revenue", "Supply chain disruptions delaying aircraft deliveries", "Rising interest rates increasing cost of BRL 24.5B debt load", "Competition from larger OEMs (Airbus, Boeing) in regional segment", "Geopolitical risks affecting defense export contracts" ], "ticker": "EMBJ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady backlog execution, gradual margin expansion, ~12x forward EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 95 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Aviation downturn, margin stagnation, multiple compression to 10x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 68 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated E2 orders, defense wins, margins reach 11%+, re-rating to 14x.", "target_price": 115 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.13, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Commercial aviation backlog conversion and new E2 orders", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Defense and security segment growth from geopolitical demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin improvement toward 10%+ from current 8%", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Executive aviation demand resilience", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Aftermarket services recurring revenue growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "BRL appreciation risk compressing USD-denominated revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "High leverage with BRL 24.5B total debt", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global macro slowdown impacting airline capex", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and FCF yield approach. 3Y revenue CAGR ~8% driven by backlog and defense. EBIT margin from 8% to 10% supports earnings growth. 12x terminal EV/EBITDA on ~BRL 6.2B forward EBITDA yields EV ~74B; less net debt ~10B gives equity ~64B or ~BRL 86/sh base, adjusted for earnings momentum to 95. PEG ratio in snapshot (0.037) appears anomalous. Ticker mapped to Embraer EMBR3 on B3. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 85.19, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong backlog supports revenue visibility over medium term", "Margin expansion story from 4.8% net to double digits plausible", "EV/EBITDA 14.7x reasonable for global aerospace peer group", "Stock 20% off 52-week high creates entry opportunity", "Elevated debt-to-equity of 1.17 limits financial flexibility" ], "target_price_6m": 90, "target_price_12m": 95 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 39169, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.114Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3755, "outputTokens": 1910, "costUsd": 0.066525 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgj300g7p658ov0dtnok", "runId": "cmnqyvgj100g0p6584fhc0edi", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EMBJ3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 85.19,\n \"target_price_6m\": 86.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 88.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Recovery in executive aviation post-pandemic.\",\n \"Defense segment growth with government contracts.\",\n \"High valuation multiples relative to earnings growth.\",\n \"Debt levels pose financial and interest rate risks.\",\n \"Supply chain challenges and global competition persist.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Defense contract wins\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Commercial aviation demand recovery\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Currency volatility (BRL/USD)\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest expense from high debt\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"New product launches and innovation\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Global economic slowdown risk\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from larger aerospace peers\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing aircraft demand\",\n \"Execution risks in new defense projects\",\n \"Regulatory changes in aerospace industry\",\n \"Foreign exchange fluctuations impacting earnings\",\n \"High leverage increasing financial vulnerability\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.085,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 13.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 80.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Weak orders and margin pressure lead to downside.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 88.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable industry multiples.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 95.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong defense contracts and efficiency gains drive upside.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with peer comps; HOLD due to 3.3% expected return and mixed evidence. Ticker discrepancy noted; analysis uses Embraer S.A. fundamentals. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing aircraft demand", "Execution risks in new defense projects", "Regulatory changes in aerospace industry", "Foreign exchange fluctuations impacting earnings", "High leverage increasing financial vulnerability" ], "ticker": "EMBJ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable industry multiples.", "target_price": 88 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Weak orders and margin pressure lead to downside.", "target_price": 80 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong defense contracts and efficiency gains drive upside.", "target_price": 95 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 13, "ebit_margin_target": 0.085 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Defense contract wins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial aviation demand recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Currency volatility (BRL/USD)", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest expense from high debt", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New product launches and innovation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global economic slowdown risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from larger aerospace peers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with peer comps; HOLD due to 3.3% expected return and mixed evidence. Ticker discrepancy noted; analysis uses Embraer S.A. fundamentals. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 85.19, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Recovery in executive aviation post-pandemic.", "Defense segment growth with government contracts.", "High valuation multiples relative to earnings growth.", "Debt levels pose financial and interest rate risks.", "Supply chain challenges and global competition persist." ], "target_price_6m": 86.5, "target_price_12m": 88 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 392, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.114Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2245, "outputTokens": 3162, "costUsd": 0.001957 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgj300g5p658yn7olsky", "runId": "cmnqyvgj100g0p6584fhc0edi", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EMBJ3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 85.19,\n \"target_price_6m\": 89.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 94.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong commercial and executive backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and stability.\",\n \"C-390 Millennium export momentum adds high-margin defense revenue potential globally.\",\n \"Supply chain constraints, particularly engines, remain a near-term delivery headwind.\",\n \"Valuation at ~32x P/E reflects optimism, requiring flawless execution to justify.\",\n \"Solid FCF generation supports deleveraging and gradual operating margin expansion.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial Aviation Backlog\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Executive Jet Demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply Chain Bottlenecks\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Defense Export Orders\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Eve eVTOL Development\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"BRL/USD FX Volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Pratt & Whitney engine supply delays impacting E2 delivery schedules.\",\n \"Global macroeconomic slowdown reducing corporate demand for executive jets.\",\n \"High net leverage in a restrictive global interest rate environment.\",\n \"Execution and certification risks associated with the Eve eVTOL program.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.085,\n \"wacc\": 0.115,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 70.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Supply chain issues persist, E2 deliveries miss targets, and defense orders stall.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 94.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady delivery ramp-up, margins hold around 8.5% EBIT, and moderate C-390 international orders.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 115.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Supply chain clears, E2 wins major US/EU campaigns, and Eve adds significant value.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple valuation. Target implies ~10.3% upside, supporting a BUY rating. High P/E limits multiple expansion, relying on earnings growth. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Pratt & Whitney engine supply delays impacting E2 delivery schedules.", "Global macroeconomic slowdown reducing corporate demand for executive jets.", "High net leverage in a restrictive global interest rate environment.", "Execution and certification risks associated with the Eve eVTOL program." ], "ticker": "EMBJ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady delivery ramp-up, margins hold around 8.5% EBIT, and moderate C-390 international orders.", "target_price": 94 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Supply chain issues persist, E2 deliveries miss targets, and defense orders stall.", "target_price": 70 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Supply chain clears, E2 wins major US/EU campaigns, and Eve adds significant value.", "target_price": 115 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.115, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.085 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Commercial Aviation Backlog", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Executive Jet Demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply Chain Bottlenecks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Defense Export Orders", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Eve eVTOL Development", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "BRL/USD FX Volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple valuation. Target implies ~10.3% upside, supporting a BUY rating. High P/E limits multiple expansion, relying on earnings growth. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 85.19, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong commercial and executive backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and stability.", "C-390 Millennium export momentum adds high-margin defense revenue potential globally.", "Supply chain constraints, particularly engines, remain a near-term delivery headwind.", "Valuation at ~32x P/E reflects optimism, requiring flawless execution to justify.", "Solid FCF generation supports deleveraging and gradual operating margin expansion." ], "target_price_6m": 89, "target_price_12m": 94 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23607, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.114Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2475, "outputTokens": 833, "costUsd": 0.014946 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgj300g3p658pu0wx0xu", "runId": "cmnqyvgj100g0p6584fhc0edi", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EMBJ3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":85.19,\"target_price_6m\":81.5,\"target_price_12m\":88.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Backlog and aftermarket support multi-year revenue visibility.\",\"Defense and executive jets diversify commercial cycle exposure.\",\"Free cash flow is positive, but working capital stays volatile.\",\"Current multiples already price in much of the recovery.\",\"Thin margins and leverage limit upside despite strong franchise.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Commercial jet deliveries\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Services aftermarket growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Defense KC-390 orders\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Executive aviation mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"USD-linked revenue exposure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Supply-chain bottlenecks\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Working-capital swings\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Leverage and interest burden\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Already-elevated valuation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Supplier delays reduce deliveries.\",\"Order cancellations or deferrals.\",\"FX swings distort earnings and cash flow.\",\"Higher funding costs pressure equity value.\",\"Defense program execution misses.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":8.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":10.2,\"wacc\":13,\"terminal_multiple\":12.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":68,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Deliveries slip and margins stay near current levels.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":89,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Backlog converts steadily; services and defense offset mix pressure.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":108,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Execution improves, margins expand, and new orders re-rate shares.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended normalized EV/EBITDA and cash-flow yield using snapshot fundamentals; base 12M value is near fair value, so HOLD fits the small expected return. Snapshot appears to map to Embraer/EMBR3 while request said EMBJ3; quote fields kept from snapshot. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Supplier delays reduce deliveries.", "Order cancellations or deferrals.", "FX swings distort earnings and cash flow.", "Higher funding costs pressure equity value.", "Defense program execution misses." ], "ticker": "EMBJ3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Backlog converts steadily; services and defense offset mix pressure.", "target_price": 89 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Deliveries slip and margins stay near current levels.", "target_price": 68 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Execution improves, margins expand, and new orders re-rate shares.", "target_price": 108 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 13, "revenue_cagr_3y": 8.5, "terminal_multiple": 12.5, "ebit_margin_target": 10.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Commercial jet deliveries", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Services aftermarket growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Defense KC-390 orders", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Executive aviation mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "USD-linked revenue exposure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply-chain bottlenecks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Working-capital swings", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Leverage and interest burden", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Already-elevated valuation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended normalized EV/EBITDA and cash-flow yield using snapshot fundamentals; base 12M value is near fair value, so HOLD fits the small expected return. Snapshot appears to map to Embraer/EMBR3 while request said EMBJ3; quote fields kept from snapshot. 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