{ "run": { "id": "cmnqyvghx00fop658svbps6v2", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqyvghb00fkp65808fllw2y", "ticker": "EGIE3", "snapshotId": "cmnqyvghh00fmp658bdc3ar9o", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.074Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqyvghh00fmp658bdc3ar9o", "assetId": "cmnqyvghb00fkp65808fllw2y", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 34.36, "price": 34.2, "dayLow": 34.08, "volume": 3089300, "dayHigh": 34.75, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 34.32, "week52Low": 27.50714269, "week52High": 35.19 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 15.12538145150591, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 2.2610912, "fcfTTM": -1150923000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 1.62256, "revenueYoy": 2.9316554 }, "sector": "Energia", "margins": { "net": 0.22223191, "gross": 0.46707046, "operating": 0.48742524 }, "website": "https://www.engie.com.br", "industry": "Energia Elétrica", "pegRatio": 0.081635974, "ebitdaTTM": 7660496000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 37855782467, "totalCash": 3358552000, "totalDebt": 38182236000, "debtEquity": 2.7440622, "quickRatio": 1.1222714, "revenueTTM": 12860075000, "companyName": "ENGIE Brasil Energia S.A.", "priceToBook": 2.720601, "currentRatio": 1.1222714, "dividendYield": 0.08738896359649123, "returnOnAssets": 0.051668208, "returnOnEquity": 0.20539153, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A Engie Brasil Energia S.A., listada na B3 sob o ticker EGIE3, é uma companhia de energia criada em 1998 a partir dos ativos de geração da antiga Gerasul, posteriormente chamada Tractebel Energia. A empresa atua no setor elétrico brasileiro com foco em geração e comercialização de energia.\n\nSeu portfólio reúne ativos hidrelétricos, eólicos, solares e de biomassa, além de projetos de transmissão e participações em infraestrutura energética. A companhia opera usinas próprias e participações em empreendimentos de grande porte no sistema elétrico nacional.\n\nNo mercado, a Engie Brasil figura entre as maiores geradoras privadas do país e compete com grupos nacionais e internacionais em leilões e contratos bilaterais. O modelo de negócio combina ativos regulados e contratos de energia de longo prazo com exposição ao mercado livre.\n\nCom sede em Florianópolis, a empresa tem ativos distribuídos em…", "enterpriseValue": 72679465000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 1048, "sharesOutstanding": 1142298900, "enterpriseToEbitda": 9.487567, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 5.651559, "operatingCashflowTTM": 3345511000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.062Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqyvgi000fqp658fvetohdp", "runId": "cmnqyvghx00fop658svbps6v2", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EGIE3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":34.2,\"target_price_6m\":35.6,\"target_price_12m\":36.8,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Attractive ~8.7% dividend yield underpins total return thesis\",\"Strong operating margins near 49% reflect efficient asset base\",\"EV/EBITDA of 9.5x reasonable for diversified Brazilian utility\",\"Negative FCF signals heavy capex cycle pressuring near-term cash generation\",\"High leverage at 2.7x D/E adds vulnerability to rising rates\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Dividend sustainability and payout policy\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Selic rate trajectory impacting utility valuations\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"New capacity additions from wind/solar pipeline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy price dynamics in free market contracts\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt refinancing costs given BRL 38B total debt\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Hydrological conditions affecting hydro generation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory stability in Brazilian power sector\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue growth normalization post strong YoY expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Dividend cut risk if negative FCF persists and debt service increases\",\"Interest rate increases compress utility multiples and raise financing costs\",\"Adverse hydrology reduces low-cost hydro generation volumes\",\"Regulatory changes to concession terms or tariff methodologies\",\"Execution risk on large capex program across renewable projects\",\"BRL depreciation impacting foreign-currency denominated debt portions\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.48,\"wacc\":0.115,\"terminal_multiple\":9.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":30.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Rate hikes, dividend cut, and persistent negative FCF compress valuation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":36.8,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady operations, maintained dividends, gradual capex cycle completion.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":41.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Selic cuts, capex cycle ends, FCF inflects positive, re-rating to 11x EV/EBITDA.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and dividend discount approach for Brazilian utility. Base case uses 9.5x forward EV/EBITDA (in-line with current) and assumes dividend maintained. 12M price-only expected return ~7.6% supports BUY. High dividend yield (~8.7%) adds to total return but negative FCF and 2.7x D/E temper conviction to medium confidence. Stock near 52-wk high limits upside skew. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Dividend cut risk if negative FCF persists and debt service increases", "Interest rate increases compress utility multiples and raise financing costs", "Adverse hydrology reduces low-cost hydro generation volumes", "Regulatory changes to concession terms or tariff methodologies", "Execution risk on large capex program across renewable projects", "BRL depreciation impacting foreign-currency denominated debt portions" ], "ticker": "EGIE3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady operations, maintained dividends, gradual capex cycle completion.", "target_price": 36.8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rate hikes, dividend cut, and persistent negative FCF compress valuation.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Selic cuts, capex cycle ends, FCF inflects positive, re-rating to 11x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 41 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.115, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 9.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.48 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Dividend sustainability and payout policy", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Selic rate trajectory impacting utility valuations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New capacity additions from wind/solar pipeline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy price dynamics in free market contracts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt refinancing costs given BRL 38B total debt", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Hydrological conditions affecting hydro generation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory stability in Brazilian power sector", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth normalization post strong YoY expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and dividend discount approach for Brazilian utility. Base case uses 9.5x forward EV/EBITDA (in-line with current) and assumes dividend maintained. 12M price-only expected return ~7.6% supports BUY. High dividend yield (~8.7%) adds to total return but negative FCF and 2.7x D/E temper conviction to medium confidence. Stock near 52-wk high limits upside skew. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 34.2, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive ~8.7% dividend yield underpins total return thesis", "Strong operating margins near 49% reflect efficient asset base", "EV/EBITDA of 9.5x reasonable for diversified Brazilian utility", "Negative FCF signals heavy capex cycle pressuring near-term cash generation", "High leverage at 2.7x D/E adds vulnerability to rising rates" ], "target_price_6m": 35.6, "target_price_12m": 36.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 41561, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.074Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3750, "outputTokens": 1812, "costUsd": 0.06405 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgi000ftp658bp4b5gfg", "runId": "cmnqyvghx00fop658svbps6v2", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EGIE3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 34.2,\n \"target_price_6m\": 34.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 35.91,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable dividend yield of 8.7% provides income support.\",\n \"Moderate revenue growth aligned with utility sector averages.\",\n \"High operating margins enhance profitability.\",\n \"Regulatory framework offers predictability but limits upside.\",\n \"Elevated debt levels pose financial risk.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory Environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Energy Demand Growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Operational Efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Dividend Policy\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt Management\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Renewable Energy Expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest Rate Sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Economic Cycles\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory changes impacting tariffs\",\n \"Increase in interest rates raising debt costs\",\n \"Economic downturn reducing energy demand\",\n \"Competition in energy generation\",\n \"Environmental compliance costs\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.03,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.487,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 32.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Regulatory pressures and lower demand reduce earnings.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 35.91, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady performance with dividend support.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 38.5, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Favorable regulations and growth initiatives drive upside.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed 3% revenue growth and 9% WACC. HOLD due to modest 5% upside and balanced risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Analyst", "risks": [ "Regulatory changes impacting tariffs", "Increase in interest rates raising debt costs", "Economic downturn reducing energy demand", "Competition in energy generation", "Environmental compliance costs" ], "ticker": "EGIE3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady performance with dividend support.", "target_price": 35.91 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory pressures and lower demand reduce earnings.", "target_price": 32 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable regulations and growth initiatives drive upside.", "target_price": 38.5 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.487 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory Environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy Demand Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational Efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend Policy", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt Management", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable Energy Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic Cycles", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed 3% revenue growth and 9% WACC. HOLD due to modest 5% upside and balanced risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 34.2, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable dividend yield of 8.7% provides income support.", "Moderate revenue growth aligned with utility sector averages.", "High operating margins enhance profitability.", "Regulatory framework offers predictability but limits upside.", "Elevated debt levels pose financial risk." ], "target_price_6m": 34.8, "target_price_12m": 35.91 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 401, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.074Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2244, "outputTokens": 3763, "costUsd": 0.002209 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgi000frp658z425gtw7", "runId": "cmnqyvghx00fop658svbps6v2", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch-Pro-v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EGIE3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 34.2,\n \"target_price_6m\": 36.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 38.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.75,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong dividend yield of 8.7% provides a solid floor for total shareholder return.\",\n \"High ROE of 20.5% demonstrates efficient capital allocation in renewable and transmission projects.\",\n \"Negative FCF reflects heavy but accretive capex in transmission and wind/solar expansion.\",\n \"High leverage is a risk if domestic interest rates remain elevated for longer.\",\n \"Predictable cash flows from regulated transmission assets balance merchant energy market exposure.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Hydrological conditions (GSF)\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Selic interest rate trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Transmission capex execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Energy spot prices (PLD)\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend payout ratio\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory tariff reviews\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged high interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.\",\n \"Adverse hydrological conditions impacting hydro generation volumes.\",\n \"Delays or cost overruns in ongoing transmission and renewable projects.\",\n \"Regulatory interventions in the Brazilian power sector.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.48,\n \"wacc\": 0.105,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 30.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"High interest rates persist and transmission capex faces execution delays.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 38.0,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution of renewable pipeline and consistent dividend payouts.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 42.0,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Favorable energy prices and faster deleveraging boost utility valuations.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple approach. Assumes 10.5% WACC and 8.5x terminal multiple. The BUY recommendation reflects an 11% price upside plus an 8.7% dividend yield. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch-Pro-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged high interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.", "Adverse hydrological conditions impacting hydro generation volumes.", "Delays or cost overruns in ongoing transmission and renewable projects.", "Regulatory interventions in the Brazilian power sector." ], "ticker": "EGIE3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady execution of renewable pipeline and consistent dividend payouts.", "target_price": 38 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "High interest rates persist and transmission capex faces execution delays.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Favorable energy prices and faster deleveraging boost utility valuations.", "target_price": 42 } }, "confidence": 0.75, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.48 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Hydrological conditions (GSF)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Selic interest rate trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Transmission capex execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy spot prices (PLD)", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend payout ratio", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory tariff reviews", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple approach. Assumes 10.5% WACC and 8.5x terminal multiple. The BUY recommendation reflects an 11% price upside plus an 8.7% dividend yield. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 34.2, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong dividend yield of 8.7% provides a solid floor for total shareholder return.", "High ROE of 20.5% demonstrates efficient capital allocation in renewable and transmission projects.", "Negative FCF reflects heavy but accretive capex in transmission and wind/solar expansion.", "High leverage is a risk if domestic interest rates remain elevated for longer.", "Predictable cash flows from regulated transmission assets balance merchant energy market exposure." ], "target_price_6m": 36, "target_price_12m": 38 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25899, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:19.074Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2478, "outputTokens": 822, "costUsd": 0.01482 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvgi000fpp658r2hb4jbc", "runId": "cmnqyvghx00fop658svbps6v2", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EGIE3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":34.2,\"target_price_6m\":35.1,\"target_price_12m\":36,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Defensive utility earnings support downside resilience.\",\"High dividend yield remains a key total-return pillar.\",\"Leverage is elevated versus negative trailing free cash flow.\",\"Growth mix in renewables and transmission adds optionality.\",\"Current valuation looks near fair for regulated risk profile.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Contracted generation cash flows\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Renewables and transmission ramp\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazil power price volatility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"High net debt burden\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative trailing free cash flow\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Stable operating margins\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate path in Brazil\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Hydrology and wind resource volatility\",\"Execution delays in new projects\",\"Higher rates or refinancing costs\",\"Regulatory changes in tariffs or contracts\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.46,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":9.3},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":29,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Weaker power prices and capex pressure keep equity de-rating.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":36,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Dividend carry and stable contracted earnings offset leverage concerns.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":41,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Lower rates and project ramp improve cash conversion and rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case uses blended EV/EBITDA and dividend yield framing anchored to snapshot fundamentals; quote fields kept from snapshot even if external context differs. HOLD fits ~5.3% 12M upside, near fair value with mixed FCF/leverage signals; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Hydrology and wind resource volatility", "Execution delays in new projects", "Higher rates or refinancing costs", "Regulatory changes in tariffs or contracts" ], "ticker": "EGIE3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Dividend carry and stable contracted earnings offset leverage concerns.", "target_price": 36 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Weaker power prices and capex pressure keep equity de-rating.", "target_price": 29 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Lower rates and project ramp improve cash conversion and rerating.", "target_price": 41 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 9.3, "ebit_margin_target": 0.46 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Dividend yield support", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Contracted generation cash flows", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewables and transmission ramp", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazil power price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "High net debt burden", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative trailing free cash flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Stable operating margins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate path in Brazil", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Base case uses blended EV/EBITDA and dividend yield framing anchored to snapshot fundamentals; quote fields kept from snapshot even if external context differs. 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Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "DCF Scenario Model", "risks": [ "Regulatory changes cutting tariffs", "Rising rates increasing debt costs", "Droughts reducing hydro generation", "Project execution delays", "Intense competition in auctions" ], "ticker": "EGIE3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable contracts and dividends drive modest upside.", "target_price": 40 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Tight regulation and high rates pressure cash flows.", "target_price": 31 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated green growth and deleveraging lift multiples.", "target_price": 49 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.47 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Dividend yield", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewable capacity growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory decisions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Long-term PPAs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Hydrology risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Transmission investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "3y DCF + terminal EV multiple using listed assumptions; BUY reflects ~17% price upside plus yield. 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