{ "run": { "id": "cmnqyvg8300ewp658qs4cv0p8", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqyvg7600eop658q4zttmyv", "ticker": "CYRE4", "snapshotId": "cmnqyvg7n00eqp658ape778kl", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:18.721Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqyvg7n00eqp658ape778kl", "assetId": "cmnqyvg7600eop658q4zttmyv", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 25.17, "price": 25.07, "dayLow": 25, "volume": 1291800, "dayHigh": 25.96, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 25.07, "week52Low": 22.71, "week52High": 30.9 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 4.5762371538616, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 5.4782856, "fcfTTM": -1424080000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 3.0794373, "revenueYoy": 2.759969 }, "sector": null, "margins": { "net": 0.25423998, "gross": 0.32577822, "operating": 0.24366558 }, "website": null, "industry": null, "pegRatio": 0.015899884, "ebitdaTTM": 2412844000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 11110385187, "totalCash": 3981564000, "totalDebt": 12276297000, "debtEquity": 1.0705963, "quickRatio": 2.350683, "revenueTTM": 9423494000, "companyName": "Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes Pfd shs", "priceToBook": 1.0230091, "currentRatio": 3.843173, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.091759704, "returnOnEquity": 0.20893644, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": null, "enterpriseValue": 20025356000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": null, "sharesOutstanding": 456800000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 8.299482, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.1250458, "operatingCashflowTTM": -358387000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:18.707Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqyvg8700eyp6586pb6p4mr", "runId": "cmnqyvg8300ewp658qs4cv0p8", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CYRE4\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":25.07,\"target_price_6m\":27.80,\"target_price_12m\":30.00,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Extremely low PE of 4.6x versus 21% ROE signals deep undervaluation\",\"Price-to-book near 1.0x with double-digit return on equity is attractive\",\"Strong revenue and EPS growth trajectory supports earnings momentum\",\"Negative FCF reflects active project pipeline, not structural weakness\",\"Brazilian rate-cut cycle could catalyze re-rating of homebuilders\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"PE multiple normalization from 4.6x toward sector average\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong ROE of 21% supporting book value compounding\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue YoY growth of ~276% reflects robust launch pipeline\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian Selic rate trajectory and mortgage affordability\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative operating cash flow of -BRL 358M\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Total debt of BRL 12.3B vs equity (D/E 1.07)\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net margin at 25.4% well above historical averages\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Adequate liquidity with current ratio of 3.84\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Stock near 52-week low, weak momentum\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Persistently high Brazilian interest rates compressing housing demand and margins\",\"Negative FCF and high leverage could constrain future growth investment\",\"Earnings reversion if current margins prove unsustainably high\",\"Macroeconomic slowdown or BRL depreciation impacting consumer confidence\",\"Regulatory or tax changes in Brazilian real estate sector\",\"Potential dilution or capital raises to fund project pipeline\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.09,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.14,\"terminal_multiple\":6.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":20.00,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Macro deterioration, sustained high rates, earnings decline push PE below 4x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":30.00,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual PE normalization to ~5.5-6x as rate cuts materialize and earnings hold.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":37.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Aggressive rate cuts, strong launches, PE re-rates to 7x with earnings growth.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on earnings-power: EPS TTM of BRL 5.48 at normalized PE of 5.5-6.5x yields BRL 30-36 range. P/B of 1.0x with 21% ROE provides floor support. Negative FCF is typical for Brazilian developers in expansion phase. 12M target of BRL 30 implies ~20% upside, consistent with BUY. Confidence moderate due to macro uncertainty and FCF concerns. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Persistently high Brazilian interest rates compressing housing demand and margins", "Negative FCF and high leverage could constrain future growth investment", "Earnings reversion if current margins prove unsustainably high", "Macroeconomic slowdown or BRL depreciation impacting consumer confidence", "Regulatory or tax changes in Brazilian real estate sector", "Potential dilution or capital raises to fund project pipeline" ], "ticker": "CYRE4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual PE normalization to ~5.5-6x as rate cuts materialize and earnings hold.", "target_price": 30 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro deterioration, sustained high rates, earnings decline push PE below 4x.", "target_price": 20 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Aggressive rate cuts, strong launches, PE re-rates to 7x with earnings growth.", "target_price": 37 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.09, "terminal_multiple": 6.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "PE multiple normalization from 4.6x toward sector average", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Strong ROE of 21% supporting book value compounding", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue YoY growth of ~276% reflects robust launch pipeline", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Selic rate trajectory and mortgage affordability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative operating cash flow of -BRL 358M", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Total debt of BRL 12.3B vs equity (D/E 1.07)", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net margin at 25.4% well above historical averages", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Adequate liquidity with current ratio of 3.84", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Stock near 52-week low, weak momentum", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on earnings-power: EPS TTM of BRL 5.48 at normalized PE of 5.5-6.5x yields BRL 30-36 range. P/B of 1.0x with 21% ROE provides floor support. Negative FCF is typical for Brazilian developers in expansion phase. 12M target of BRL 30 implies ~20% upside, consistent with BUY. Confidence moderate due to macro uncertainty and FCF concerns. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 25.07, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Extremely low PE of 4.6x versus 21% ROE signals deep undervaluation", "Price-to-book near 1.0x with double-digit return on equity is attractive", "Strong revenue and EPS growth trajectory supports earnings momentum", "Negative FCF reflects active project pipeline, not structural weakness", "Brazilian rate-cut cycle could catalyze re-rating of homebuilders" ], "target_price_6m": 27.8, "target_price_12m": 30 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 52824, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:18.721Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3466, "outputTokens": 2026, "costUsd": 0.06798 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvg8700f1p6587ct7h42c", "runId": "cmnqyvg8300ewp658qs4cv0p8", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CYRE4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 25.07,\n \"target_price_6m\": 27.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 28.25,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Current P/E of 4.6 is below historical averages.\",\n \"ROE of 20.9% indicates strong profitability.\",\n \"Negative free cash flow raises liquidity concerns.\",\n \"Revenue growth is modest at 2.8% yoy.\",\n \"Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.07 is manageable.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Brazilian economic growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Real estate demand cycles\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Company's project execution\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost inflation and margin pressure\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt refinancing risks\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Currency exchange rate stability\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory environment for construction\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic recession in Brazil\", \"Rising borrowing costs\", \"Project delays or cancellations\", \"BRL depreciation\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.025,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.2,\n \"wacc\": 0.1,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 6\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 24.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Market downturn and higher interest rates.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 28.25, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Stable growth and margin maintenance.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 32.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong economic recovery and successful projects.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E of 5.0x on 12M EPS of 5.65, implying 12.7% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Analyst", "risks": [ "Economic recession in Brazil", "Rising borrowing costs", "Project delays or cancellations", "BRL depreciation" ], "ticker": "CYRE4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Stable growth and margin maintenance.", "target_price": 28.25 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Market downturn and higher interest rates.", "target_price": 24 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong economic recovery and successful projects.", "target_price": 32 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.025, "terminal_multiple": 6, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazilian economic growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Real estate demand cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Company's project execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation and margin pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt refinancing risks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Currency exchange rate stability", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory environment for construction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E of 5.0x on 12M EPS of 5.65, implying 12.7% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 25.07, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Current P/E of 4.6 is below historical averages.", "ROE of 20.9% indicates strong profitability.", "Negative free cash flow raises liquidity concerns.", "Revenue growth is modest at 2.8% yoy.", "Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.07 is manageable." ], "target_price_6m": 27.8, "target_price_12m": 28.25 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 351, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:18.721Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 1984, "outputTokens": 3763, "costUsd": 0.002136 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvg8700ezp658zm8u062k", "runId": "cmnqyvg8300ewp658qs4cv0p8", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch-Pro-v2\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CYRE4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 25.07,\n \"target_price_6m\": 27.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 29.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong ROE of 20.9% demonstrates excellent capital allocation and project execution.\",\n \"Valuation is undemanding at 4.6x P/E and 1.0x P/B despite strong earnings.\",\n \"High SELIC rates remain a headwind for mortgage affordability and new launches.\",\n \"Robust liquidity with a 3.8x current ratio mitigates near-term debt maturity risks.\",\n \"Negative FCF reflects heavy landbank investments, positioning for future cycle upswings.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"SELIC interest rate trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"High-end real estate demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Construction material inflation (INCC)\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Landbank acquisition pace\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Mortgage availability and funding costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Minha Casa Minha Vida program changes\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged high interest rates in Brazil depressing mortgage demand.\",\n \"Cost overruns in construction materials squeezing gross margins.\",\n \"Slower-than-expected inventory turnover leading to higher holding costs.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown impacting high-end buyer sentiment.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 1.2\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 21.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Rates stay higher for longer, compressing margins and slowing sales velocity.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 29.50,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady high-end demand and gradual rate cuts support a re-rating to 1.2x P/B.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 35.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Aggressive SELIC cuts trigger a real estate boom and rapid inventory monetization.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of 1.2x target P/B and 6.5x normalized P/E, reflecting strong ROE offset by macro headwinds. The 17.6% upside supports a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch-Pro-v2", "risks": [ "Prolonged high interest rates in Brazil depressing mortgage demand.", "Cost overruns in construction materials squeezing gross margins.", "Slower-than-expected inventory turnover leading to higher holding costs.", "Macroeconomic slowdown impacting high-end buyer sentiment." ], "ticker": "CYRE4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady high-end demand and gradual rate cuts support a re-rating to 1.2x P/B.", "target_price": 29.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rates stay higher for longer, compressing margins and slowing sales velocity.", "target_price": 21 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Aggressive SELIC cuts trigger a real estate boom and rapid inventory monetization.", "target_price": 35 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 1.2, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "SELIC interest rate trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "High-end real estate demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Construction material inflation (INCC)", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Landbank acquisition pace", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mortgage availability and funding costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Minha Casa Minha Vida program changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 1.2x target P/B and 6.5x normalized P/E, reflecting strong ROE offset by macro headwinds. The 17.6% upside supports a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 25.07, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong ROE of 20.9% demonstrates excellent capital allocation and project execution.", "Valuation is undemanding at 4.6x P/E and 1.0x P/B despite strong earnings.", "High SELIC rates remain a headwind for mortgage affordability and new launches.", "Robust liquidity with a 3.8x current ratio mitigates near-term debt maturity risks.", "Negative FCF reflects heavy landbank investments, positioning for future cycle upswings." ], "target_price_6m": 27.5, "target_price_12m": 29.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22544, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:18.721Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2231, "outputTokens": 860, "costUsd": 0.014782 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvg8700exp658mn4snedh", "runId": "cmnqyvg8300ewp658qs4cv0p8", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CYRE4\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":25.07,\"target_price_6m\":26.8,\"target_price_12m\":28.6,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Low P/E and near-book valuation understate strong profitability.\",\"ROE above 20% supports a higher normalized valuation.\",\"High margins suggest resilient project mix and pricing.\",\"Negative TTM cash flow tempers upside despite earnings strength.\",\"Leverage and housing-cycle exposure keep conviction moderate.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Brazil housing demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Launches and pre-sales\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cash conversion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate path\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Land bank discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation rerating\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Sustained negative operating cash flow\",\"Higher-than-expected construction costs\",\"Brazil rate or credit deterioration\",\"Project delays or cancellations\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.14,\"terminal_multiple\":6.2},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":22.4,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Sales slow and cash conversion stays weak, limiting rerating.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":28.6,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Margins stay healthy and valuation moves modestly above book.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":33.8,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Lower rates and strong launches drive faster earnings growth.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended normalized earnings and book-value approach for a homebuilder. Snapshot metrics show 4.6x P/E, 1.0x P/B and ~21% ROE, supporting upside, but negative TTM OCF/FCF and leverage cap conviction. No sell-side targets used. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Sustained negative operating cash flow", "Higher-than-expected construction costs", "Brazil rate or credit deterioration", "Project delays or cancellations" ], "ticker": "CYRE4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Margins stay healthy and valuation moves modestly above book.", "target_price": 28.6 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Sales slow and cash conversion stays weak, limiting rerating.", "target_price": 22.4 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Lower rates and strong launches drive faster earnings growth.", "target_price": 33.8 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 6.2, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazil housing demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Launches and pre-sales", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cash conversion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate path", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Land bank discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation rerating", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended normalized earnings and book-value approach for a homebuilder. Snapshot metrics show 4.6x P/E, 1.0x P/B and ~21% ROE, supporting upside, but negative TTM OCF/FCF and leverage cap conviction. No sell-side targets used. not investment advice", "current_price": 25.07, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Low P/E and near-book valuation understate strong profitability.", "ROE above 20% supports a higher normalized valuation.", "High margins suggest resilient project mix and pricing.", "Negative TTM cash flow tempers upside despite earnings strength.", "Leverage and housing-cycle exposure keep conviction moderate." ], "target_price_6m": 26.8, "target_price_12m": 28.6 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_02d4d72d9052bffb0069d72a33037c8194b583428c859cc2b8", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18146, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:18:18.721Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2253, "outputTokens": 1016, "costUsd": 0.018167 } }, { "id": "cmnqyvg8700f0p658r5kvxmyi", "runId": "cmnqyvg8300ewp658qs4cv0p8", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CYRE4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 25.07,\n \"target_price_6m\": 27.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 30.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Low P/E of 4.6x indicates undervaluation vs earnings\",\n \"Robust 25% net margins and 21% ROE support case\",\n \"Negative FCF and high debt levels heighten risks\",\n \"Rate cuts likely to stimulate Brazilian housing demand\",\n \"Near book value pricing offers downside protection\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate cuts\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brazil GDP growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Housing demand recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt servicing burden\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Project delivery execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Construction cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer confidence\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Policy or tax changes\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates\",\n \"Economic slowdown in Brazil\",\n \"Project launch and delivery delays\",\n \"Continued negative free cash flow\",\n \"Political or regulatory shifts\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.115,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 20.0,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates prolong demand weakness.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 30.0,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual macro improvement lifts sales.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 39.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong recovery expands multiples.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF anchored to revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. 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Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Higher-for-longer interest rates", "Economic slowdown in Brazil", "Project launch and delivery delays", "Continued negative free cash flow", "Political or regulatory shifts" ], "ticker": "CYRE4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Gradual macro improvement lifts sales.", "target_price": 30 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Higher rates prolong demand weakness.", "target_price": 20 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong recovery expands multiples.", "target_price": 39 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.115, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Interest rate cuts", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazil GDP growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Housing demand recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing burden", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Project delivery execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Construction cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer confidence", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Policy or tax changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF anchored to revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. 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