{ "run": { "id": "cmnqylc9p0052p658ybnf1lg1", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmlr6u20v001bqj320gpeghhg", "ticker": "CMIG4", "snapshotId": "cmnqylc8v0050p658atp7pefp", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:27.035Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqylc8v0050p658atp7pefp", "assetId": "cmlr6u20v001bqj320gpeghhg", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 13.36, "price": 13.31, "dayLow": 13.13, "volume": 20072200, "dayHigh": 13.39, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 13.33, "week52Low": 9.92, "week52High": 13.39 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 7.774532710280374, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 1.7119726, "fcfTTM": -1330279000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 3.9113402, "revenueYoy": 2.8249757 }, "sector": "Energia", "margins": { "net": 0.11460748, "gross": 0.16928886, "operating": 0.1578972 }, "website": "https://www.cemig.com.br", "industry": "Energia Elétrica", "pegRatio": 0.026416583, "ebitdaTTM": 8283724000, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 41528803554, "totalCash": 2661338000, "totalDebt": 27035510000, "debtEquity": 0.9459027, "quickRatio": 1.0011951, "revenueTTM": 42751283000, "companyName": "Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais SA Pfd", "priceToBook": 1.2936326, "currentRatio": 1.0011951, "dividendYield": 0.09328597580766342, "returnOnAssets": 0.07309798, "returnOnEquity": 0.17142494, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "A Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (Cemig) é uma empresa brasileira do setor de energia, fundada em 1952 e listada na B3 sob os tickers CMIG3 e CMIG4. A companhia atua de forma integrada no setor elétrico e também possui participação em distribuição de gás natural em Minas Gerais.\n\nAs operações da Cemig abrangem geração, transmissão, distribuição e comercialização de energia elétrica por meio de controladas e coligadas. O grupo também desenvolve atividades em soluções energéticas e serviços associados ao consumo e à eficiência energética.\n\nNo ambiente competitivo brasileiro, a Cemig está entre os grupos tradicionais de energia com base relevante de ativos regulados e concessões de longo prazo. A companhia concorre com grandes grupos privados e estatais em distribuição, transmissão e comercialização de energia.\n\nA empresa tem sede em Belo Horizonte e presença operacional em difer…", "enterpriseValue": 61348397000, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 5025, "sharesOutstanding": 2861782000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 7.4058957, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.4350071, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4076534000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:27.007Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqylc9s0054p658b7k3r2wr", "runId": "cmnqylc9p0052p658ybnf1lg1", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CMIG4\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":13.31,\"target_price_6m\":14.20,\"target_price_12m\":15.00,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Attractive 9.3% dividend yield offers strong income support\",\"Low P/E of 7.8x and EV/EBITDA 7.4x suggest undervaluation vs peers\",\"ROE of 17% is solid for a state-controlled Brazilian utility\",\"Negative FCF of -BRL 1.3B signals heavy capex cycle risk\",\"Stock trading near 52-week high limits near-term upside potential\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Regulated tariff adjustments and inflation pass-through\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High dividend payout sustaining ~9% yield\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Privatization optionality under Minas Gerais state policy\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative free cash flow from elevated capex program\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt/equity at 0.95x with BRL 27B total debt\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong EPS recovery (+391% YoY) normalizing earnings base\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian interest rate cycle affecting cost of debt\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Concession renewal visibility for long-term asset base\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"State government interference in tariff or dividend policy\",\"Rising Selic rates increasing refinancing costs on BRL 27B debt\",\"Hydrological risk impacting generation costs and margins\",\"Regulatory changes reducing allowed returns on distribution assets\",\"Capex overruns extending negative FCF period beyond expectations\",\"Political risk around privatization reversal or governance changes\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.17,\"wacc\":0.12,\"terminal_multiple\":8.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":11.00,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Regulatory setback or dividend cut compresses multiple to 6x P/E.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":15.00,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady regulated earnings growth plus high dividend yield supports re-rating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":17.50,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Privatization catalyst or margin expansion drives P/E toward 10x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation: EV/EBITDA (8-9x normalized), dividend discount (CoE 12%, g 4%), P/E relative to Brazilian utility peers (8-10x). 12M price return ~12.7% plus ~9% dividend yield implies ~21% total return, supporting BUY. Confidence capped at 0.62 due to negative FCF, proximity to 52-week high, and state-control governance discount. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "State government interference in tariff or dividend policy", "Rising Selic rates increasing refinancing costs on BRL 27B debt", "Hydrological risk impacting generation costs and margins", "Regulatory changes reducing allowed returns on distribution assets", "Capex overruns extending negative FCF period beyond expectations", "Political risk around privatization reversal or governance changes" ], "ticker": "CMIG4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady regulated earnings growth plus high dividend yield supports re-rating.", "target_price": 15 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory setback or dividend cut compresses multiple to 6x P/E.", "target_price": 11 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Privatization catalyst or margin expansion drives P/E toward 10x.", "target_price": 17.5 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulated tariff adjustments and inflation pass-through", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High dividend payout sustaining ~9% yield", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Privatization optionality under Minas Gerais state policy", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative free cash flow from elevated capex program", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt/equity at 0.95x with BRL 27B total debt", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong EPS recovery (+391% YoY) normalizing earnings base", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian interest rate cycle affecting cost of debt", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Concession renewal visibility for long-term asset base", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation: EV/EBITDA (8-9x normalized), dividend discount (CoE 12%, g 4%), P/E relative to Brazilian utility peers (8-10x). 12M price return ~12.7% plus ~9% dividend yield implies ~21% total return, supporting BUY. Confidence capped at 0.62 due to negative FCF, proximity to 52-week high, and state-control governance discount. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 13.31, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive 9.3% dividend yield offers strong income support", "Low P/E of 7.8x and EV/EBITDA 7.4x suggest undervaluation vs peers", "ROE of 17% is solid for a state-controlled Brazilian utility", "Negative FCF of -BRL 1.3B signals heavy capex cycle risk", "Stock trading near 52-week high limits near-term upside potential" ], "target_price_6m": 14.2, "target_price_12m": 15 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 71356, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:27.035Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3764, "outputTokens": 1894, "costUsd": 0.06617 } }, { "id": "cmnqylc9s0057p658dffijeey", "runId": "cmnqylc9p0052p658ybnf1lg1", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CMIG4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 13.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 13.40,\n \"target_price_12m\": 13.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.55,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable utility with high dividend yield.\",\n \"Negative free cash flow concerns sustainability.\",\n \"Moderate revenue growth aligned with inflation.\",\n \"High debt levels pressure in rising rates.\",\n \"Valuation fair based on current multiples.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory framework stability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Electricity demand growth\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend payout policy\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational cost control\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt refinancing risks\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Regulatory changes\", \"Interest rate increases\", \"Economic downturn\", \"Currency volatility\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.025,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.155,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 7.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 12.00, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Regulatory headwinds and higher interest rates.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 13.50, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Stable operations with moderate growth.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 15.00, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Favorable regulatory changes and efficiency gains.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margins; fair value estimate leads to HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Analyst", "risks": [ "Regulatory changes", "Interest rate increases", "Economic downturn", "Currency volatility" ], "ticker": "CMIG4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Stable operations with moderate growth.", "target_price": 13.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory headwinds and higher interest rates.", "target_price": 12 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable regulatory changes and efficiency gains.", "target_price": 15 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.025, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.155 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory framework stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Electricity demand growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend payout policy", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational cost control", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt refinancing risks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margins; fair value estimate leads to HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 13.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable utility with high dividend yield.", "Negative free cash flow concerns sustainability.", "Moderate revenue growth aligned with inflation.", "High debt levels pressure in rising rates.", "Valuation fair based on current multiples." ], "target_price_6m": 13.4, "target_price_12m": 13.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 351, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:27.035Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2246, "outputTokens": 3310, "costUsd": 0.002019 } }, { "id": "cmnqylc9s0055p658eg59twas", "runId": "cmnqylc9p0052p658ybnf1lg1", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CMIG4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 13.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 14.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 14.80,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Attractive valuation at 7.8x P/E with a strong 9.3% dividend yield supporting total returns.\",\n \"Solid ROE of 17.1% demonstrates efficient capital allocation despite state-owned status.\",\n \"Heavy capex cycle drives negative FCF but expands regulated asset base for future growth.\",\n \"Privatization or federalization talks provide a potential, albeit uncertain, upside catalyst.\",\n \"Trading near 52-week highs limits extreme upside, but steady earnings justify a Buy rating.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend Payout Ratio\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capex Execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Privatization/Federalization News\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rates (Selic)\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Hydrological Conditions\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tariff Review Cycle\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Political interference from the Minas Gerais state government.\",\n \"Delays or cost overruns in the current heavy capex program.\",\n \"Regulatory changes impacting tariff adjustments and distribution margins.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.16,\n \"wacc\": 0.115,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 7.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 11.50,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Political interference increases, capex overruns occur, and dividends are slashed.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 14.80,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady RAB growth, maintained 9%+ dividend yield, and stable regulatory environment.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 17.50,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Concrete steps toward privatization unlock significant value and multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a mix of EV/RAB and EV/EBITDA multiples, supported by a DCF model (WACC 11.5%). Target implies ~11% price upside plus ~9% dividend yield, fitting the BUY criteria. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst v1.0", "risks": [ "Political interference from the Minas Gerais state government.", "Delays or cost overruns in the current heavy capex program.", "Regulatory changes impacting tariff adjustments and distribution margins.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs." ], "ticker": "CMIG4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady RAB growth, maintained 9%+ dividend yield, and stable regulatory environment.", "target_price": 14.8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Political interference increases, capex overruns occur, and dividends are slashed.", "target_price": 11.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Concrete steps toward privatization unlock significant value and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 17.5 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.115, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.16 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulated Asset Base (RAB) Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend Payout Ratio", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex Execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Privatization/Federalization News", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rates (Selic)", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Hydrological Conditions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tariff Review Cycle", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a mix of EV/RAB and EV/EBITDA multiples, supported by a DCF model (WACC 11.5%). Target implies ~11% price upside plus ~9% dividend yield, fitting the BUY criteria. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 13.31, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive valuation at 7.8x P/E with a strong 9.3% dividend yield supporting total returns.", "Solid ROE of 17.1% demonstrates efficient capital allocation despite state-owned status.", "Heavy capex cycle drives negative FCF but expands regulated asset base for future growth.", "Privatization or federalization talks provide a potential, albeit uncertain, upside catalyst.", "Trading near 52-week highs limits extreme upside, but steady earnings justify a Buy rating." ], "target_price_6m": 14, "target_price_12m": 14.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 27132, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:27.035Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2473, "outputTokens": 883, "costUsd": 0.015542 } }, { "id": "cmnqylc9s0053p658fj89foyl", "runId": "cmnqylc9p0052p658ybnf1lg1", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CMIG4\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":13.31,\"target_price_6m\":13.85,\"target_price_12m\":14.02,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Low P/E and high yield support downside protection.\",\"Regulated utility mix offers resilient earnings and cash generation.\",\"Negative TTM free cash flow limits near-term rerating.\",\"Leverage remains meaningful versus cash and funding flexibility.\",\"Shares already trade near 52-week high, capping upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Tariff readjustments\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Distribution losses control\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend policy\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capex and concession needs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt and rates\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy demand growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory decisions\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse tariff/regulatory rulings\",\"Higher rates raise financing costs\",\"Hydrology or purchase-cost pressure\",\"State influence on capital allocation\",\"Dividend normalization below expectations\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":4.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":16.5,\"wacc\":11.5,\"terminal_multiple\":7.8},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":11.1,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Weaker cash conversion and adverse regulation compress multiples.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":14.02,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Stable tariffs, steady margins, and dividends keep valuation near fair value.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":16.8,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Better loss control, lower rates, and stronger payouts drive rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base target uses blended P/E and EV/EBITDA anchors versus snapshot fundamentals, with utility-style growth and margin assumptions. Mixed valuation support and negative FCF keep expected 12M price return near fair value, so HOLD. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Adverse tariff/regulatory rulings", "Higher rates raise financing costs", "Hydrology or purchase-cost pressure", "State influence on capital allocation", "Dividend normalization below expectations" ], "ticker": "CMIG4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable tariffs, steady margins, and dividends keep valuation near fair value.", "target_price": 14.02 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Weaker cash conversion and adverse regulation compress multiples.", "target_price": 11.1 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Better loss control, lower rates, and stronger payouts drive rerating.", "target_price": 16.8 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 11.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4.5, "terminal_multiple": 7.8, "ebit_margin_target": 16.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Tariff readjustments", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Distribution losses control", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend policy", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex and concession needs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net debt and rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory decisions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Base target uses blended P/E and EV/EBITDA anchors versus snapshot fundamentals, with utility-style growth and margin assumptions. Mixed valuation support and negative FCF keep expected 12M price return near fair value, so HOLD. not investment advice", "current_price": 13.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Low P/E and high yield support downside protection.", "Regulated utility mix offers resilient earnings and cash generation.", "Negative TTM free cash flow limits near-term rerating.", "Leverage remains meaningful versus cash and funding flexibility.", "Shares already trade near 52-week high, capping upside." ], "target_price_6m": 13.85, "target_price_12m": 14.02 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0724e9311618eba50069d727e29d108196afc4e2c9367f5002", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19497, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:27.035Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2468, "outputTokens": 1132, "costUsd": 0.020167 } }, { "id": "cmnqylc9s0056p658j5ymcnej", "runId": "cmnqylc9p0052p658ybnf1lg1", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Valuation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CMIG4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 13.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 14.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 15.8,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Attractive 7.8x PE and 9.3% dividend yield\",\n \"Stable regulated cash flows from key assets\",\n \"Solid ROE of 17% with efficiency gains\",\n \"High debt and negative FCF are concerns\",\n \"Long-term concessions ensure visibility\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tariff adjustments\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory stability\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Hydrological conditions\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Energy demand growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt refinancing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capex cycle normalization\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewables expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse ANEEL tariff decisions\",\n \"Prolonged drought impacting hydro\",\n \"Rising rates increasing debt burden\",\n \"Political interference in sector\",\n \"Execution delays on investments\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 4,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 16,\n \"wacc\": 8.5,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 9\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 11.5,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory setbacks and high rates pressure valuation.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 15.8,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable operations and dividends drive moderate upside.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 18.5,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Favorable tariffs and hydrology boost performance.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBITDA; high yield supports BUY. Snapshot data used as baseline. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Valuation", "risks": [ "Adverse ANEEL tariff decisions", "Prolonged drought impacting hydro", "Rising rates increasing debt burden", "Political interference in sector", "Execution delays on investments" ], "ticker": "CMIG4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable operations and dividends drive moderate upside.", "target_price": 15.8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Regulatory setbacks and high rates pressure valuation.", "target_price": 11.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable tariffs and hydrology boost performance.", "target_price": 18.5 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4, "terminal_multiple": 9, "ebit_margin_target": 16 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Tariff adjustments", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Hydrological conditions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt refinancing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capex cycle normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewables expansion", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBITDA; high yield supports BUY. Snapshot data used as baseline. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 13.31, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive 7.8x PE and 9.3% dividend yield", "Stable regulated cash flows from key assets", "Solid ROE of 17% with efficiency gains", "High debt and negative FCF are concerns", "Long-term concessions ensure visibility" ], "target_price_6m": 14.5, "target_price_12m": 15.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "def75c0e-e314-940e-b8f8-f331f845c161", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 14886, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:27.035Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2809, "outputTokens": 2531, "costUsd": 0.046392 } } ] } }