{ "run": { "id": "cmnqylbpz003ip6586gapz68h", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmlr6u1zg0014qj328vbhk3ko", "ticker": "BPAC11", "snapshotId": "cmnqylbpq003gp658vaahsscl", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:26.325Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqylbpq003gp658vaahsscl", "assetId": "cmlr6u1zg0014qj328vbhk3ko", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 61.55, "price": 62.12, "dayLow": 61.08, "volume": 18658200, "dayHigh": 62.62, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 61.82, "week52Low": 32.99, "week52High": 62.99 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 0, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 1.4279103, "fcfTTM": -29219950000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 5.39327, "revenueYoy": 0.71064633 }, "sector": "Serviços Financeiros", "margins": { "net": 0.5920525, "gross": 1, "operating": 0 }, "website": "https://www.btgpactual.com/", "industry": "Bancos", "pegRatio": 0.03609871, "ebitdaTTM": 0, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 0, "totalCash": 0, "totalDebt": 0, "debtEquity": 9.079284076989994, "quickRatio": 0.007976691749383528, "revenueTTM": 28145818000, "companyName": "Banco BTG Pactual SA Units Cons of 1 Sh + 2 Pfd Shs A", "priceToBook": 8.460385, "currentRatio": 1.110140842771331, "dividendYield": 0.02008057791371539, "returnOnAssets": 0.020590352, "returnOnEquity": 0.20753601, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "O Banco BTG Pactual S.A. é uma instituição financeira com foco em banco de investimento, mercado de capitais, asset management, wealth management, crédito corporativo e sales and trading. A companhia atua no Brasil e em outras geografias por meio de plataformas institucionais e de distribuição.\n\nFundado em 1983, o grupo passou por ciclos de expansão e reestruturação societária, incluindo operações relevantes de compra e venda de ativos ao longo de sua história. A instituição consolidou presença em negócios de atacado e também ampliou serviços para clientes de varejo de maior renda por canais digitais.\n\nListada na B3, a empresa combina receitas de intermediação financeira, serviços de advisory, gestão de recursos e resultados de tesouraria. O desempenho depende de atividade de mercado, condições de crédito, captação de recursos e volumes em operações de investimento.", "enterpriseValue": 1402507278300, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 8188, "sharesOutstanding": 11670063000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 0, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0, "operatingCashflowTTM": -26619144000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:26.318Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqylbq1003kp658r6vg265l", "runId": "cmnqylbpz003ip6586gapz68h", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BPAC11\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":62.12,\"target_price_6m\":63.5,\"target_price_12m\":65.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium franchise with ~21% ROE but stock trades near 52-week high\",\"Revenue YoY growth decelerated sharply to 0.7%, signaling headwinds\",\"Diversified revenue mix across IB, asset management, wealth and trading\",\"High P/B (~8.5x per share) limits re-rating upside at current levels\",\"Selic trajectory and capital markets activity are key swing factors\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Capital markets activity and M&A pipeline in Brazil\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Selic rate trajectory impacting NII and trading\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital wealth platform (BTG Digital) client acquisition\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Asset management AuM growth and fee generation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit quality in corporate lending book\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue growth deceleration (0.7% YoY)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage from tech platform scale\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from incumbents and fintechs\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged high Selic compresses capital markets volumes and advisory fees\",\"Sharp credit deterioration in corporate/structured lending portfolio\",\"Regulatory changes impacting banking fees or capital requirements\",\"Key personnel concentration risk in senior leadership\",\"BRL depreciation affecting international operations and investor sentiment\",\"Market correction pulling stock from 52-week highs toward mean reversion\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.12,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.21,\"wacc\":0.14,\"terminal_multiple\":15.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":50.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Capital markets slowdown plus credit losses compress earnings and multiple.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":65.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady ROE ~21%, moderate revenue growth, valuation holds near current levels.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":78.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong IB pipeline, AuM inflows, and digital platform gains drive re-rating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on sustainable ROE (~21%) and target P/E of ~15x normalized EPS per unit. Revenue CAGR and EBIT margin proxied as loan growth and ROE target respectively (bank model). Snapshot P/B of 8.46 appears distorted by unit-vs-share mismatch; adjusted P/B likely ~2.8x which is fair for quality. Cost of equity 14% reflects Brazil risk-free ~10.5% plus ERP. 12M expected return ~4.6% supports HOLD. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged high Selic compresses capital markets volumes and advisory fees", "Sharp credit deterioration in corporate/structured lending portfolio", "Regulatory changes impacting banking fees or capital requirements", "Key personnel concentration risk in senior leadership", "BRL depreciation affecting international operations and investor sentiment", "Market correction pulling stock from 52-week highs toward mean reversion" ], "ticker": "BPAC11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady ROE ~21%, moderate revenue growth, valuation holds near current levels.", "target_price": 65 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Capital markets slowdown plus credit losses compress earnings and multiple.", "target_price": 50 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong IB pipeline, AuM inflows, and digital platform gains drive re-rating.", "target_price": 78 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Capital markets activity and M&A pipeline in Brazil", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Selic rate trajectory impacting NII and trading", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital wealth platform (BTG Digital) client acquisition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Asset management AuM growth and fee generation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit quality in corporate lending book", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth deceleration (0.7% YoY)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage from tech platform scale", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from incumbents and fintechs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on sustainable ROE (~21%) and target P/E of ~15x normalized EPS per unit. Revenue CAGR and EBIT margin proxied as loan growth and ROE target respectively (bank model). Snapshot P/B of 8.46 appears distorted by unit-vs-share mismatch; adjusted P/B likely ~2.8x which is fair for quality. Cost of equity 14% reflects Brazil risk-free ~10.5% plus ERP. 12M expected return ~4.6% supports HOLD. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 62.12, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium franchise with ~21% ROE but stock trades near 52-week high", "Revenue YoY growth decelerated sharply to 0.7%, signaling headwinds", "Diversified revenue mix across IB, asset management, wealth and trading", "High P/B (~8.5x per share) limits re-rating upside at current levels", "Selic trajectory and capital markets activity are key swing factors" ], "target_price_6m": 63.5, "target_price_12m": 65 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 50607, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:26.325Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3725, "outputTokens": 2257, "costUsd": 0.07505 } }, { "id": "cmnqylbq1003np658uz5pglrt", "runId": "cmnqylbpz003ip6586gapz68h", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"P/B Multiple with Growth Adjustment\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BPAC11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 62.12,\n \"target_price_6m\": 63.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 65.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading investment bank in Brazil with strong franchise.\",\n \"Revenue growth supported by economic recovery.\",\n \"High financial leverage increases risk during downturns.\",\n \"Competition intensifying in digital and wealth management.\",\n \"Valuation reflects current growth prospects fairly.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Brazilian GDP growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Credit quality trends\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Investment banking fees\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Wealth management growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market volatility\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Digital transformation efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn in Brazil\",\n \"Increased competitive pressure\",\n \"Regulatory tightening\",\n \"High debt levels affecting stability\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.20,\n \"wacc\": 0.12,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 55.00, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown and higher credit defaults.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 65.00, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth with stable profitability.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 75.00, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong recovery and market share gains.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on P/B multiples with growth adjustments; 12M expected return ~4.6%, in HOLD range. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "P/B Multiple with Growth Adjustment", "risks": [ "Economic downturn in Brazil", "Increased competitive pressure", "Regulatory tightening", "High debt levels affecting stability" ], "ticker": "BPAC11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth with stable profitability.", "target_price": 65 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic slowdown and higher credit defaults.", "target_price": 55 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong recovery and market share gains.", "target_price": 75 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazilian GDP growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Credit quality trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Investment banking fees", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wealth management growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Market volatility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital transformation efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on P/B multiples with growth adjustments; 12M expected return ~4.6%, in HOLD range. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 62.12, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading investment bank in Brazil with strong franchise.", "Revenue growth supported by economic recovery.", "High financial leverage increases risk during downturns.", "Competition intensifying in digital and wealth management.", "Valuation reflects current growth prospects fairly." ], "target_price_6m": 63, "target_price_12m": 65 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 341, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:26.325Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2215, "outputTokens": 2587, "costUsd": 0.001707 } }, { "id": "cmnqylbq1003lp658v5w4pa15", "runId": "cmnqylbpz003ip6586gapz68h", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BPAC11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 62.12,\n \"target_price_6m\": 63.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 64.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Premium valuation (P/B > 8x) leaves limited room for multiple expansion despite strong franchise.\",\n \"Consistently high ROE (~21%) driven by asset-light wealth and asset management segments.\",\n \"Investment banking revenues face headwinds if domestic capital markets remain sluggish.\",\n \"Strong Net New Money (NNM) generation supports long-term fee income growth.\",\n \"Trading near 52-week highs; risk/reward is balanced, justifying a neutral stance.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wealth Management Net New Money (NNM)\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Investment Banking Pipeline Activity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Corporate Credit NPL Ratios\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Domestic Interest Rate (Selic) Trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital Retail Platform Expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating Leverage and Cost-to-Income\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Macroeconomic volatility in Brazil impacting capital markets and asset pricing.\",\n \"Intense competition in wealth management and digital banking from fintechs and incumbents.\",\n \"Credit risk concentration in the corporate lending portfolio.\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting asset management fees or capital requirements.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.50,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 52.00,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Multiple contraction due to slower wealth inflows and higher defaults in corporate credit.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 64.00,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady ROE > 20%, moderate AUM growth, and stable margins support current valuation.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 75.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong capital markets rebound and accelerated digital retail growth drive earnings beat.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on Residual Income and Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP). High P/B reflects ROE >20%, but limits upside. Target implies ~3% return, aligning with HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Macroeconomic volatility in Brazil impacting capital markets and asset pricing.", "Intense competition in wealth management and digital banking from fintechs and incumbents.", "Credit risk concentration in the corporate lending portfolio.", "Regulatory changes affecting asset management fees or capital requirements." ], "ticker": "BPAC11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady ROE > 20%, moderate AUM growth, and stable margins support current valuation.", "target_price": 64 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Multiple contraction due to slower wealth inflows and higher defaults in corporate credit.", "target_price": 52 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong capital markets rebound and accelerated digital retail growth drive earnings beat.", "target_price": 75 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Wealth Management Net New Money (NNM)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Investment Banking Pipeline Activity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Corporate Credit NPL Ratios", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Domestic Interest Rate (Selic) Trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital Retail Platform Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Leverage and Cost-to-Income", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on Residual Income and Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP). High P/B reflects ROE >20%, but limits upside. Target implies ~3% return, aligning with HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 62.12, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium valuation (P/B > 8x) leaves limited room for multiple expansion despite strong franchise.", "Consistently high ROE (~21%) driven by asset-light wealth and asset management segments.", "Investment banking revenues face headwinds if domestic capital markets remain sluggish.", "Strong Net New Money (NNM) generation supports long-term fee income growth.", "Trading near 52-week highs; risk/reward is balanced, justifying a neutral stance." ], "target_price_6m": 63, "target_price_12m": 64 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24920, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:26.325Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2417, "outputTokens": 841, "costUsd": 0.014926 } }, { "id": "cmnqylbq1003jp6589ihvl33z", "runId": "cmnqylbpz003ip6586gapz68h", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BPAC11\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":62.12,\"target_price_6m\":64.2,\"target_price_12m\":65.4,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Diversified franchise supports recurring fees across banking, wealth and asset management.\",\"Reported ROE remains strong, indicating high earnings power for a Brazilian financial.\",\"Rate normalization and market reopening can lift capital-markets and funding activity.\",\"Credit and trading revenues are cyclical, making quarterly results inherently volatile.\",\"Shares near 52-week highs leave only modest upside versus execution risks.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Capital-markets volumes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Wealth net inflows\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Client asset growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazil rate cuts\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit-loss discipline\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Trading volatility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competition/pricing\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory capital rules\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Capital-markets slowdown compresses advisory and trading fees.\",\"Credit deterioration raises provisions and funding spreads.\",\"Regulatory or tax changes hurt bank profitability.\",\"Snapshot per-share valuation metrics appear inconsistent for units.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.14,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.34,\"wacc\":0.15,\"terminal_multiple\":12.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":52,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Weak markets and higher credit costs compress returns.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":65.4,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Moderate fee growth and stable credit keep ROE elevated.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":75,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger deal flow and wealth inflows drive rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Used snapshot quote fields and a normalized earnings-power framework; 'wacc' is a cost-of-equity proxy and terminal_multiple a forward P/E anchor. Snapshot P/E and P/B appear inconsistent for units, so valuation leans on normalized ROE/growth rather than raw ratios. 12M upside is ~5%, supporting HOLD; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Capital-markets slowdown compresses advisory and trading fees.", "Credit deterioration raises provisions and funding spreads.", "Regulatory or tax changes hurt bank profitability.", "Snapshot per-share valuation metrics appear inconsistent for units." ], "ticker": "BPAC11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate fee growth and stable credit keep ROE elevated.", "target_price": 65.4 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Weak markets and higher credit costs compress returns.", "target_price": 52 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger deal flow and wealth inflows drive rerating.", "target_price": 75 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.15, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.14, "terminal_multiple": 12.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.34 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Capital-markets volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wealth net inflows", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Client asset growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazil rate cuts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit-loss discipline", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Trading volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition/pricing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory capital rules", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Used snapshot quote fields and a normalized earnings-power framework; 'wacc' is a cost-of-equity proxy and terminal_multiple a forward P/E anchor. Snapshot P/E and P/B appear inconsistent for units, so valuation leans on normalized ROE/growth rather than raw ratios. 12M upside is ~5%, supporting HOLD; not investment advice.", "current_price": 62.12, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Diversified franchise supports recurring fees across banking, wealth and asset management.", "Reported ROE remains strong, indicating high earnings power for a Brazilian financial.", "Rate normalization and market reopening can lift capital-markets and funding activity.", "Credit and trading revenues are cyclical, making quarterly results inherently volatile.", "Shares near 52-week highs leave only modest upside versus execution risks." ], "target_price_6m": 64.2, "target_price_12m": 65.4 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0e2b70cb3a46009a0069d727d4619c81938e38acb11a803dab", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 48413, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:26.325Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2439, "outputTokens": 3043, "costUsd": 0.04687 } }, { "id": "cmnqylbq1003mp658dtw0efjp", "runId": "cmnqylbpz003ip6586gapz68h", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Integrated Fundamental Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BPAC11\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 62.12,\n \"target_price_6m\": 67.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 73,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong AUM growth and wealth platform expansion\",\n \"Leading IB fees in recovering Brazilian markets\",\n \"ROE above 20% supports elevated P/B multiple\",\n \"High dependence on volatile capital markets activity\",\n \"Macro risks from rates and political uncertainty\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brazil GDP and market volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Asset management inflows\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Investment banking deal flow\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory tightening\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition in wealth segment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Trading revenue stability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged Brazil recession hitting fees\",\n \"Sharp drop in capital markets activity\",\n \"Regulatory or governance issues\",\n \"Rising funding costs eroding margins\",\n \"Loss of key personnel to competitors\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.16,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.48,\n \"wacc\": 0.105,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 49,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Macro slowdown cuts trading and IB volumes.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 73,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady AUM growth and normalized activity.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 89,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong market rally drives record revenues.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"ROE-driven residual income valuation bridged to peer P/B comps; 12M target implies ~17% upside consistent with BUY. Uses snapshot data only. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Integrated Fundamental Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged Brazil recession hitting fees", "Sharp drop in capital markets activity", "Regulatory or governance issues", "Rising funding costs eroding margins", "Loss of key personnel to competitors" ], "ticker": "BPAC11", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady AUM growth and normalized activity.", "target_price": 73 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Macro slowdown cuts trading and IB volumes.", "target_price": 49 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong market rally drives record revenues.", "target_price": 89 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.16, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.48 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brazil GDP and market volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Asset management inflows", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Investment banking deal flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory tightening", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition in wealth segment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Trading revenue stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "ROE-driven residual income valuation bridged to peer P/B comps; 12M target implies ~17% upside consistent with BUY. Uses snapshot data only. not investment advice.", "current_price": 62.12, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong AUM growth and wealth platform expansion", "Leading IB fees in recovering Brazilian markets", "ROE above 20% supports elevated P/B multiple", "High dependence on volatile capital markets activity", "Macro risks from rates and political uncertainty" ], "target_price_6m": 67.5, "target_price_12m": 73 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "6daf9a1e-5557-9a61-a04d-bd7d1913f6af", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 15329, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:26.325Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2779, "outputTokens": 2490, "costUsd": 0.045687 } } ] } }