{ "run": { "id": "cmnqylb9d002cp658ctjy9o1j", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmlr6u1w8000sqj32vyf48cfz", "ticker": "BBDC4", "snapshotId": "cmnqylb92002ap658jw6wn2f9", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.727Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqylb92002ap658jw6wn2f9", "assetId": "cmlr6u1w8000sqj32vyf48cfz", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 20.55, "price": 20.17, "dayLow": 19.83, "volume": 67537800, "dayHigh": 20.55, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 20.14, "week52Low": 12.16, "week52High": 22.12 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 9.013316650281528, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 2.2377527, "fcfTTM": 26204033000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 4.6843047, "revenueYoy": 3.7858796 }, "sector": "Serviços Financeiros", "margins": { "net": 0.08854971, "gross": 0.28254673, "operating": 0 }, "website": "https://banco.bradesco/", "industry": "Bancos Diversificados", "pegRatio": 0.015764639, "ebitdaTTM": 0, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 189530450259, "totalCash": 0, "totalDebt": 0, "debtEquity": 12.02232472959839, "quickRatio": 0.0899501485247604, "revenueTTM": 270183100000, "companyName": "Banco Bradesco SA Pfd", "priceToBook": 1.1370444, "currentRatio": 1.083178588375512, "dividendYield": 0.09839280267724342, "returnOnAssets": 0.010266642, "returnOnEquity": 0.13369554, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "O Banco Bradesco S.A. e suas controladas formam um dos maiores conglomerados financeiros do Brasil, com atuação em banco comercial, crédito, meios de pagamento, seguros, previdência, capitalização, gestão de recursos e corretagem. A instituição atende pessoas físicas, pequenas e médias empresas, grandes companhias e setor público, combinando distribuição física e canais digitais.\n\nNo banco de varejo e atacado, o grupo opera produtos de depósitos, contas, cartões, crédito consignado, financiamento ao consumo, crédito imobiliário, financiamento a empresas, comércio exterior, cash management e serviços de tesouraria. Também atua em investimentos e mercado de capitais por meio de plataformas e corretoras do grupo, além de produtos de wealth management e private banking.\n\nEm seguros, previdência e capitalização, o conglomerado opera por meio de empresas especializadas e mantém presença releva…", "enterpriseValue": 2147392280259, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 84022, "sharesOutstanding": 10592012000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 0, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0, "operatingCashflowTTM": -62533997000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.718Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqylb9f002ep6585u2k2fnm", "runId": "cmnqylb9d002cp658ctjy9o1j", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BBDC4\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":20.17,\"target_price_6m\":21.50,\"target_price_12m\":22.50,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"ROE recovery trajectory supports gradual re-rating toward 1.2-1.3x P/B\",\"Attractive 9.8% dividend yield provides downside cushion and total return\",\"P/E of 9x is undemanding if earnings growth sustains mid-single digits\",\"Efficiency plan and digital transformation reducing cost-to-income ratio\",\"Credit quality normalization post-cycle supports margin expansion\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"ROE improvement from 13.4% toward 15-16%\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High Selic rate boosting NII but pressuring credit demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost-to-income ratio reduction via digital channels\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Insurance/pension segment (Bradesco Seguros) earnings resilience\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit delinquency normalization trend\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from fintechs and Itaú/BB\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian macro uncertainty and fiscal risks\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential Selic rate cuts compressing NII spread\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Macro deterioration causing credit quality spike and higher provisions\",\"Selic rate trajectory shift compressing net interest margins unexpectedly\",\"Faster fintech disruption eroding retail banking fee income\",\"Regulatory changes affecting capital requirements or fee structures\",\"Political/fiscal instability weakening BRL and risk premiums\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.065,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.155,\"wacc\":0.145,\"terminal_multiple\":1.25},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":16.50,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"ROE stalls near 12-13%, macro worsens, credit costs rise sharply.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":22.50,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"ROE gradually improves to ~15%, modest P/B re-rating to 1.2x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":26.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"ROE reaches 17%+, strong efficiency gains, P/B expands to 1.4x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Bank-appropriate valuation: justified P/B (Gordon Growth) anchored on ROE vs CoE, cross-checked with earnings-power P/E. revenue_cagr_3y=loan book+NII growth; ebit_margin_target=ROE target (15.5%); wacc=cost of equity (14.5%); terminal_multiple=target P/B (1.25x). 12M price return ~11.6% supports BUY. Dividend yield (~10%) adds to total return but excluded from price target per rubric. Confidence moderate due to macro uncertainty. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Macro deterioration causing credit quality spike and higher provisions", "Selic rate trajectory shift compressing net interest margins unexpectedly", "Faster fintech disruption eroding retail banking fee income", "Regulatory changes affecting capital requirements or fee structures", "Political/fiscal instability weakening BRL and risk premiums" ], "ticker": "BBDC4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "ROE gradually improves to ~15%, modest P/B re-rating to 1.2x.", "target_price": 22.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "ROE stalls near 12-13%, macro worsens, credit costs rise sharply.", "target_price": 16.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "ROE reaches 17%+, strong efficiency gains, P/B expands to 1.4x.", "target_price": 26 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.145, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 1.25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.155 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "ROE improvement from 13.4% toward 15-16%", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High Selic rate boosting NII but pressuring credit demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost-to-income ratio reduction via digital channels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance/pension segment (Bradesco Seguros) earnings resilience", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit delinquency normalization trend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from fintechs and Itaú/BB", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brazilian macro uncertainty and fiscal risks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential Selic rate cuts compressing NII spread", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Bank-appropriate valuation: justified P/B (Gordon Growth) anchored on ROE vs CoE, cross-checked with earnings-power P/E. revenue_cagr_3y=loan book+NII growth; ebit_margin_target=ROE target (15.5%); wacc=cost of equity (14.5%); terminal_multiple=target P/B (1.25x). 12M price return ~11.6% supports BUY. Dividend yield (~10%) adds to total return but excluded from price target per rubric. Confidence moderate due to macro uncertainty. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 20.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "ROE recovery trajectory supports gradual re-rating toward 1.2-1.3x P/B", "Attractive 9.8% dividend yield provides downside cushion and total return", "P/E of 9x is undemanding if earnings growth sustains mid-single digits", "Efficiency plan and digital transformation reducing cost-to-income ratio", "Credit quality normalization post-cycle supports margin expansion" ], "target_price_6m": 21.5, "target_price_12m": 22.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 50106, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.727Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3728, "outputTokens": 1989, "costUsd": 0.068365 } }, { "id": "cmnqylb9f002hp6583pjfwkxn", "runId": "cmnqylb9d002cp658ctjy9o1j", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBDC4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 20.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 21.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 23.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading Brazilian bank with diversified financial services portfolio.\",\n \"Strong dividend yield near 10% supports total return.\",\n \"Modest but steady revenue and earnings growth outlook.\",\n \"Valuation at P/B of 1.14 suggests room for appreciation.\",\n \"Risks include high leverage and economic sensitivity.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue Growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Net Interest Margin\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Credit Quality\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating Efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend Yield\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brazilian Economic Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Environment\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High debt-to-equity ratio\",\n \"Brazilian economic volatility\",\n \"Interest rate risk\",\n \"Competition in banking sector\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.035,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.1,\n \"wacc\": 0.12,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 18.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic recession increases credit losses.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 23.5, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth and stable margins.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 28.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Digital adoption drives cost savings.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation using P/E multiple with EPS growth. Base case target implies 16.5% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Analyst", "risks": [ "High debt-to-equity ratio", "Brazilian economic volatility", "Interest rate risk", "Competition in banking sector" ], "ticker": "BBDC4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth and stable margins.", "target_price": 23.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic recession increases credit losses.", "target_price": 18 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Digital adoption drives cost savings.", "target_price": 28 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net Interest Margin", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit Quality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend Yield", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Economic Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation using P/E multiple with EPS growth. Base case target implies 16.5% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 20.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading Brazilian bank with diversified financial services portfolio.", "Strong dividend yield near 10% supports total return.", "Modest but steady revenue and earnings growth outlook.", "Valuation at P/B of 1.14 suggests room for appreciation.", "Risks include high leverage and economic sensitivity." ], "target_price_6m": 21.5, "target_price_12m": 23.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 343, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.727Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2227, "outputTokens": 4055, "costUsd": 0.002327 } }, { "id": "cmnqylb9f002fp658lt9wrv6x", "runId": "cmnqylb9d002cp658ctjy9o1j", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBDC4\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 20.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 22.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 24.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Turnaround strategy shows early signs of stabilizing asset quality and reducing NPLs.\",\n \"High dividend yield of 9.8% provides strong downside protection for investors.\",\n \"Valuation at 1.14x P/B is attractive relative to historical averages and peers.\",\n \"ROE recovery to 15%+ depends on successful digital transformation and cost control.\",\n \"Macroeconomic volatility in Brazil poses ongoing risks to credit growth and margins.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Selic Interest Rate\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Loan Portfolio Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee Income Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Efficiency Ratio / Opex\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Insurance Premium Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher defaults.\",\n \"Intense competition from digital banks (e.g., Nubank, Inter) eroding market share.\",\n \"Slower-than-expected execution of the strategic restructuring plan.\",\n \"Regulatory changes impacting fee structures or capital requirements.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 1.2\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 18.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"NPLs rise again and restructuring fails to improve ROE, leading to multiple contraction.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 24.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual ROE recovery to 15% and stable asset quality support a 1.3x P/B valuation.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 28.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Faster-than-expected efficiency gains and strong credit cycle push ROE above 17%.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a Residual Income Model and target P/B of 1.3x. Assumes ROE recovery to 15%. Target implies ~19% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher defaults.", "Intense competition from digital banks (e.g., Nubank, Inter) eroding market share.", "Slower-than-expected execution of the strategic restructuring plan.", "Regulatory changes impacting fee structures or capital requirements." ], "ticker": "BBDC4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual ROE recovery to 15% and stable asset quality support a 1.3x P/B valuation.", "target_price": 24 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "NPLs rise again and restructuring fails to improve ROE, leading to multiple contraction.", "target_price": 18 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Faster-than-expected efficiency gains and strong credit cycle push ROE above 17%.", "target_price": 28 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 1.2, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Selic Interest Rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Loan Portfolio Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee Income Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Efficiency Ratio / Opex", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Insurance Premium Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a Residual Income Model and target P/B of 1.3x. Assumes ROE recovery to 15%. Target implies ~19% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 20.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Turnaround strategy shows early signs of stabilizing asset quality and reducing NPLs.", "High dividend yield of 9.8% provides strong downside protection for investors.", "Valuation at 1.14x P/B is attractive relative to historical averages and peers.", "ROE recovery to 15%+ depends on successful digital transformation and cost control.", "Macroeconomic volatility in Brazil poses ongoing risks to credit growth and margins." ], "target_price_6m": 22, "target_price_12m": 24 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26138, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.727Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2454, "outputTokens": 843, "costUsd": 0.015024 } }, { "id": "cmnqylb9f002dp658reblge9f", "runId": "cmnqylb9d002cp658ctjy9o1j", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BBDC4\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":20.17,\"target_price_6m\":20.95,\"target_price_12m\":21.25,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Valuation is undemanding at 9x earnings and 1.14x book.\",\"Credit-cost normalization can lift earnings from a still-recovering base.\",\"Insurance and fee businesses diversify revenue beyond lending spreads.\",\"ROE improved, but only modestly exceeds estimated cost of equity.\",\"Macro, rates, and competition keep upside limited near fair value.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Credit cost normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Insurance earnings resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Loan growth recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Efficiency and digitalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net interest margin pressure\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Retail and SME asset quality\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Fintech competition\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital and dividend capacity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Higher-than-expected NPL formation\",\"Faster margin compression from lower rates\",\"Weaker fee and insurance income\",\"Brazil regulatory or tax changes\",\"Execution risk on cost reduction\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":6,\"ebit_margin_target\":18.5,\"wacc\":14,\"terminal_multiple\":9.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":17,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Credit costs stay elevated and margin pressure offsets volume growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":21.25,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Earnings recover moderately while valuation remains near current multiples.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":24.5,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Cleaner asset quality and stronger ROE drive a modest rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a blended earnings-power and P/B framework for a Brazilian bank; generic assumption labels proxy growth, normalized profitability, cost of equity and exit multiple. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Higher-than-expected NPL formation", "Faster margin compression from lower rates", "Weaker fee and insurance income", "Brazil regulatory or tax changes", "Execution risk on cost reduction" ], "ticker": "BBDC4", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Earnings recover moderately while valuation remains near current multiples.", "target_price": 21.25 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Credit costs stay elevated and margin pressure offsets volume growth.", "target_price": 17 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Cleaner asset quality and stronger ROE drive a modest rerating.", "target_price": 24.5 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 6, "terminal_multiple": 9.5, "ebit_margin_target": 18.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Credit cost normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance earnings resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Loan growth recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Efficiency and digitalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest margin pressure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Retail and SME asset quality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fintech competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital and dividend capacity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses a blended earnings-power and P/B framework for a Brazilian bank; generic assumption labels proxy growth, normalized profitability, cost of equity and exit multiple. 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