{ "run": { "id": "cmnqylb3o001kp658u1j4jocw", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmnqy2cxa00calg5b1l7613ds", "ticker": "BBDC3", "snapshotId": "cmnqylb3g001ip658ypsokl6d", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.522Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqylb3g001ip658ypsokl6d", "assetId": "cmnqy2cxa00calg5b1l7613ds", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 17.78, "price": 17.35, "dayLow": 17.28, "volume": 11136300, "dayHigh": 17.78, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 17.4, "week52Low": 10.84, "week52High": 18.98 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 7.753150415586737, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 2.2377527, "fcfTTM": 26204033000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 4.6843047, "revenueYoy": 3.7858796 }, "sector": "Serviços Financeiros", "margins": { "net": 0.08854971, "gross": 0.28254673, "operating": 0 }, "website": "https://banco.bradesco", "industry": "Bancos", "pegRatio": 0.015764639, "ebitdaTTM": 0, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 189530450259, "totalCash": 0, "totalDebt": 0, "debtEquity": 12.02232472959839, "quickRatio": 0.0899501485247604, "revenueTTM": 270183100000, "companyName": "Banco Bradesco SA", "priceToBook": 0.9872931, "currentRatio": 1.083178588375512, "dividendYield": 0.1039865244956772, "returnOnAssets": 0.010266642, "returnOnEquity": 0.13369554, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "O Banco Bradesco S.A. é uma das maiores instituições financeiras do Brasil, com atuação em banco de varejo, atacado, cartões, seguros, gestão de recursos e serviços para empresas. A operação é estruturada por canais físicos e digitais, incluindo rede de agências, plataformas de atendimento remoto e ecossistema de meios de pagamento. A companhia atende pessoas físicas, pequenas e médias empresas e grandes corporações em diferentes produtos de crédito, captação e investimentos.\n\nListado na B3 sob BBDC3 e BBDC4, o grupo também tem presença relevante em seguros, previdência e capitalização por meio de subsidiárias especializadas. O resultado financeiro depende de margem com clientes, qualidade de crédito, receitas de serviços e desempenho das operações de seguros e gestão de ativos. A escala operacional, a base ampla de clientes e a diversificação de receitas posicionam o banco entre os prin…", "enterpriseValue": 2147392280259, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 87274, "sharesOutstanding": 10592012000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 0, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0, "operatingCashflowTTM": -62533997000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.517Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqylb3s001mp658gyxnt7wb", "runId": "cmnqylb3o001kp658u1j4jocw", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BBDC3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":17.35,\"target_price_6m\":18.60,\"target_price_12m\":19.50,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Bradesco trades near book value (0.99x P/B) with improving ROE trajectory\",\"Attractive P/E of 7.75x vs historical average and sector peers\",\"Dividend yield above 10% provides downside cushion and total return support\",\"EPS growth of ~4.7% YoY signals ongoing profitability recovery post-restructuring\",\"Credit quality normalization and cost discipline should drive further ROE expansion\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"ROE recovery toward 15%+ from current 13.4%\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net interest margin expansion amid high Selic environment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Insurance and fee income diversification stabilizing revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital transformation reducing cost-to-income ratio\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High Brazilian interest rates compressing loan demand growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from fintechs and digital banks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit provisioning cycle potentially extending if macro weakens\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative operating cash flow TTM signals working capital pressures\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Brazilian macro deterioration (GDP slowdown, fiscal risk) impacting credit quality\",\"Slower-than-expected ROE convergence to peer levels (Itaú ~20% ROE)\",\"Regulatory changes affecting bank spreads or capital requirements\",\"Prolonged high Selic eroding loan book growth and increasing funding costs\",\"Execution risk on digital transformation and cost efficiency programs\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.15,\"wacc\":0.14,\"terminal_multiple\":1.1},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":15.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"ROE stalls below 13%, credit cycle worsens, P/B compresses to 0.85x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":19.50,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"ROE reaches ~15%, book value grows ~7%, P/B re-rates to ~1.05x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":22.50,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"ROE exceeds 16%, strong earnings momentum drives P/B to ~1.2x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Bank-specific valuation anchored on P/B vs ROE framework. Book value ~BRL 17.58/share grows ~7% annually via retained earnings (assuming ~50% payout). Base case applies 1.05x P/B on 12M forward book (~BRL 18.8) yielding ~19.5. Assumptions labeled as ROE target (ebit_margin_target proxy=15% ROE), cost of equity (wacc=14%), terminal P/B (terminal_multiple=1.1x). 12M expected return ~12.4% supports BUY. Confidence moderate due to macro uncertainty and execution risk. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Brazilian macro deterioration (GDP slowdown, fiscal risk) impacting credit quality", "Slower-than-expected ROE convergence to peer levels (Itaú ~20% ROE)", "Regulatory changes affecting bank spreads or capital requirements", "Prolonged high Selic eroding loan book growth and increasing funding costs", "Execution risk on digital transformation and cost efficiency programs" ], "ticker": "BBDC3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "ROE reaches ~15%, book value grows ~7%, P/B re-rates to ~1.05x.", "target_price": 19.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "ROE stalls below 13%, credit cycle worsens, P/B compresses to 0.85x.", "target_price": 15 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "ROE exceeds 16%, strong earnings momentum drives P/B to ~1.2x.", "target_price": 22.5 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 1.1, "ebit_margin_target": 0.15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "ROE recovery toward 15%+ from current 13.4%", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest margin expansion amid high Selic environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance and fee income diversification stabilizing revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital transformation reducing cost-to-income ratio", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High Brazilian interest rates compressing loan demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from fintechs and digital banks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Credit provisioning cycle potentially extending if macro weakens", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative operating cash flow TTM signals working capital pressures", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Bank-specific valuation anchored on P/B vs ROE framework. Book value ~BRL 17.58/share grows ~7% annually via retained earnings (assuming ~50% payout). Base case applies 1.05x P/B on 12M forward book (~BRL 18.8) yielding ~19.5. Assumptions labeled as ROE target (ebit_margin_target proxy=15% ROE), cost of equity (wacc=14%), terminal P/B (terminal_multiple=1.1x). 12M expected return ~12.4% supports BUY. Confidence moderate due to macro uncertainty and execution risk. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 17.35, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Bradesco trades near book value (0.99x P/B) with improving ROE trajectory", "Attractive P/E of 7.75x vs historical average and sector peers", "Dividend yield above 10% provides downside cushion and total return support", "EPS growth of ~4.7% YoY signals ongoing profitability recovery post-restructuring", "Credit quality normalization and cost discipline should drive further ROE expansion" ], "target_price_6m": 18.6, "target_price_12m": 19.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 72644, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.522Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3727, "outputTokens": 1670, "costUsd": 0.060385 } }, { "id": "cmnqylb3s001pp658n2onvdyf", "runId": "cmnqylb3o001kp658u1j4jocw", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Residual Income / P/B Valuation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBDC3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 17.35,\n \"target_price_6m\": 18.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 20.3,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Undervalued P/B with ROE above cost of equity.\",\n \"Digital banking drives efficiency and growth.\",\n \"Stable dividend yield supports income.\",\n \"Exposure to Brazilian economic recovery.\",\n \"Risks from high leverage and rate volatility.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Loan Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Credit Quality\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Digital Transformation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Growth in Brazil\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost Efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"High financial leverage\", \"Economic downturn in Brazil\", \"Regulatory tightening\", \"Cybersecurity threats\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.1,\n \"wacc\": 0.11,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 1.1\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 16.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Credit losses rise, P/B contracts to 0.9.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 20.3, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady performance, P/B normalizes to 1.1.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 22.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong recovery, P/B expands to 1.2.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on P/B with ROE and cost of equity. BUY due to 17% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "Residual Income / P/B Valuation", "risks": [ "High financial leverage", "Economic downturn in Brazil", "Regulatory tightening", "Cybersecurity threats" ], "ticker": "BBDC3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady performance, P/B normalizes to 1.1.", "target_price": 20.3 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Credit losses rise, P/B contracts to 0.9.", "target_price": 16 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong recovery, P/B expands to 1.2.", "target_price": 22 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 1.1, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Loan Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit Quality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital Transformation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic Growth in Brazil", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost Efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on P/B with ROE and cost of equity. BUY due to 17% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 17.35, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Undervalued P/B with ROE above cost of equity.", "Digital banking drives efficiency and growth.", "Stable dividend yield supports income.", "Exposure to Brazilian economic recovery.", "Risks from high leverage and rate volatility." ], "target_price_6m": 18, "target_price_12m": 20.3 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 458, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.522Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2227, "outputTokens": 4114, "costUsd": 0.002351 } }, { "id": "cmnqylb3s001np658ev8n7y8u", "runId": "cmnqylb3o001kp658u1j4jocw", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBDC3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 17.35,\n \"target_price_6m\": 18.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 19.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Valuation is attractive at 0.98x P/B, pricing in historical ROE weakness rather than recovery.\",\n \"High dividend yield of 10.4% provides strong downside protection and income generation.\",\n \"Turnaround initiatives and cost-cutting are gradually improving operational efficiency and margins.\",\n \"Asset quality is stabilizing, leading to lower provisioning expenses in upcoming quarters.\",\n \"Competition from digital banks remains a headwind for fee income and retail market share.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"NPL Ratio Trend\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Selic Rate Trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Credit Portfolio Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating Expense Control\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Insurance Segment Profitability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital Bank Competition\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher NPLs.\",\n \"Slower-than-expected execution of the strategic turnaround plan.\",\n \"Increased regulatory capital requirements or tax changes for banks.\",\n \"Sustained loss of retail market share to fintechs and digital banks.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.14,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 15.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Turnaround fails, NPLs spike, and ROE stays below 12%.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 19.5,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual ROE recovery to 15%, stable asset quality, and steady dividends.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 23.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid macro improvement, ROE returns to historical 18%+, strong credit growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on Gordon Growth Model and target P/E of 8.5x, assuming ROE recovery to 15% and Ke of 14%. BUY rating reflects ~12% upside plus 10% dividend yield. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher NPLs.", "Slower-than-expected execution of the strategic turnaround plan.", "Increased regulatory capital requirements or tax changes for banks.", "Sustained loss of retail market share to fintechs and digital banks." ], "ticker": "BBDC3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual ROE recovery to 15%, stable asset quality, and steady dividends.", "target_price": 19.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Turnaround fails, NPLs spike, and ROE stays below 12%.", "target_price": 15 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid macro improvement, ROE returns to historical 18%+, strong credit growth.", "target_price": 23 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.14, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "NPL Ratio Trend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Selic Rate Trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit Portfolio Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Expense Control", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance Segment Profitability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital Bank Competition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on Gordon Growth Model and target P/E of 8.5x, assuming ROE recovery to 15% and Ke of 14%. BUY rating reflects ~12% upside plus 10% dividend yield. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 17.35, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation is attractive at 0.98x P/B, pricing in historical ROE weakness rather than recovery.", "High dividend yield of 10.4% provides strong downside protection and income generation.", "Turnaround initiatives and cost-cutting are gradually improving operational efficiency and margins.", "Asset quality is stabilizing, leading to lower provisioning expenses in upcoming quarters.", "Competition from digital banks remains a headwind for fee income and retail market share." ], "target_price_6m": 18.5, "target_price_12m": 19.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23066, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.522Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2447, "outputTokens": 840, "costUsd": 0.014974 } }, { "id": "cmnqylb3s001lp6588y8bywpr", "runId": "cmnqylb3o001kp658u1j4jocw", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI Equity Research v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BBDC3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":17.35,\"target_price_6m\":18.2,\"target_price_12m\":18.9,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Sub-1x book limits downside if ROE stays near low-teens.\",\"Insurance and fee income diversify earnings through rate cycles.\",\"Credit-cost normalization supports gradual EPS recovery.\",\"Falling rates can compress spreads before loan growth reaccelerates.\",\"High dividend yield cushions total return, but price upside is moderate.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Credit cost normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Lower rates pressure NII\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Loan growth recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Insurance earnings resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee and cards growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competition on spreads\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital returns/dividends\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Asset quality in SME/retail\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Rate cuts hit NII faster than funding reprices.\",\"Credit deterioration in unsecured and SME books.\",\"ROE recovery lags peers and stays below expectations.\",\"Regulatory or tax changes reduce bank profitability.\",\"BBDC3 liquidity discount versus BBDC4 persists.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.15,\"terminal_multiple\":1.05},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":15.8,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"NII compresses and provisions stay elevated, keeping ROE subdued.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":18.9,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Gradual credit normalization and steady insurance offset softer spreads.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":21.8,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Faster ROE recovery and stronger loan growth lift valuation above book.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended earnings-power and P/B view for a bank; snapshot quote/fundamentals kept authoritative. terminal_multiple is target P/B and ebit_margin_target proxies normalized earnings margin. BUY reflects ~9% 12M price upside from recovery, tempered by rate/NIM risk; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "OpenAI Equity Research v2", "risks": [ "Rate cuts hit NII faster than funding reprices.", "Credit deterioration in unsecured and SME books.", "ROE recovery lags peers and stays below expectations.", "Regulatory or tax changes reduce bank profitability.", "BBDC3 liquidity discount versus BBDC4 persists." ], "ticker": "BBDC3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual credit normalization and steady insurance offset softer spreads.", "target_price": 18.9 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "NII compresses and provisions stay elevated, keeping ROE subdued.", "target_price": 15.8 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Faster ROE recovery and stronger loan growth lift valuation above book.", "target_price": 21.8 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.15, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.5, "terminal_multiple": 1.05, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Credit cost normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Lower rates pressure NII", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Loan growth recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance earnings resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee and cards growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition on spreads", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital returns/dividends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Asset quality in SME/retail", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended earnings-power and P/B view for a bank; snapshot quote/fundamentals kept authoritative. terminal_multiple is target P/B and ebit_margin_target proxies normalized earnings margin. BUY reflects ~9% 12M price upside from recovery, tempered by rate/NIM risk; not investment advice.", "current_price": 17.35, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Sub-1x book limits downside if ROE stays near low-teens.", "Insurance and fee income diversify earnings through rate cycles.", "Credit-cost normalization supports gradual EPS recovery.", "Falling rates can compress spreads before loan growth reaccelerates.", "High dividend yield cushions total return, but price upside is moderate." ], "target_price_6m": 18.2, "target_price_12m": 18.9 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0bae2c0a80c000c40069d727a0750c8197921bea8186f50e09", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 47650, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.522Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2442, "outputTokens": 2375, "costUsd": 0.037524 } }, { "id": "cmnqylb3s001op658ryy6ow7e", "runId": "cmnqylb3o001kp658u1j4jocw", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"P/B and Dividend Discount Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBDC3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 17.35,\n \"target_price_6m\": 18.4,\n \"target_price_12m\": 19.8,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Attractive valuation at 1.0x P/B versus 13.4% ROE\",\n \"High dividend yield of 10.4% bolsters shareholder returns\",\n \"Diversified revenue from banking, insurance and fees\",\n \"Slowing loan growth and rising competition pose challenges\",\n \"Macro uncertainties in Brazil could impact asset quality\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"P/B valuation\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend yield\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brazil economic growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Net interest margins\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Non-performing loans\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Deterioration in credit portfolio quality\",\n \"Increased competition from neobanks\",\n \"Adverse changes in Brazilian fiscal policy\",\n \"Interest rate volatility affecting NIM\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 5,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 25,\n \"wacc\": 11.8,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 1.15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 15.2,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged recession raises provisions and compresses ROE.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 19.8,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Stable growth with controlled credit costs sustains valuation.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 24.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong economy and digital gains expand margins and multiples.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation anchored on P/B re-rating to 1.15x terminal and 5% revenue CAGR with 11.8% COE. 14% expected 12M return supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "P/B and Dividend Discount Model", "risks": [ "Deterioration in credit portfolio quality", "Increased competition from neobanks", "Adverse changes in Brazilian fiscal policy", "Interest rate volatility affecting NIM" ], "ticker": "BBDC3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Stable growth with controlled credit costs sustains valuation.", "target_price": 19.8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Prolonged recession raises provisions and compresses ROE.", "target_price": 15.2 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong economy and digital gains expand margins and multiples.", "target_price": 24 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 11.8, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5, "terminal_multiple": 1.15, "ebit_margin_target": 25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "P/B valuation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazil economic growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Non-performing loans", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on P/B re-rating to 1.15x terminal and 5% revenue CAGR with 11.8% COE. 14% expected 12M return supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 17.35, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive valuation at 1.0x P/B versus 13.4% ROE", "High dividend yield of 10.4% bolsters shareholder returns", "Diversified revenue from banking, insurance and fees", "Slowing loan growth and rising competition pose challenges", "Macro uncertainties in Brazil could impact asset quality" ], "target_price_6m": 18.4, "target_price_12m": 19.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "01f02f10-b92a-90c6-a9e7-7c14e2d28281", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21922, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.522Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2789, "outputTokens": 3672, "costUsd": 0.063447 } } ] } }