{ "run": { "id": "cmnqylasv000hp6588izdocg6", "region": "BR", "assetId": "cmlr6u1wu000vqj32nw2toc8e", "ticker": "BBAS3", "snapshotId": "cmnqylasg000dp658euxlw8bb", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.133Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnqylasg000dp658euxlw8bb", "assetId": "cmlr6u1wu000vqj32nw2toc8e", "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "open": 24.43, "price": 24.49, "dayLow": 24.15, "volume": 40278600, "dayHigh": 24.8, "currency": "BRL", "prevClose": 24.37, "week52Low": 18.12, "week52High": 30.04 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 10.20629297770369, "beta": 0, "epsTTM": 2.3994715, "fcfTTM": -9164571000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 2.2648065, "revenueYoy": 3.4552388 }, "sector": "Serviços Financeiros", "margins": { "net": 0.05253186, "gross": 0.31619, "operating": 0 }, "website": "https://www.bb.com.br", "industry": "Bancos Diversificados", "pegRatio": 0, "ebitdaTTM": 0, "forwardPe": 0, "marketCap": 134049059617, "totalCash": 0, "totalDebt": 0, "debtEquity": 11.68366057507617, "quickRatio": 0.02636901402995204, "revenueTTM": 319462080000, "companyName": "Banco do Brasil S.A.", "priceToBook": 0.693974, "currentRatio": 1.085589614108888, "dividendYield": 0.03029600506329114, "returnOnAssets": 0.006835421, "returnOnEquity": 0.08669816, "analystOpinions": 0, "businessSummary": "O Banco do Brasil S.A. (BBAS3) é uma instituição financeira de economia mista controlada pela União, com atuação em banco múltiplo e operações em crédito, captação, pagamentos, investimentos, seguros e administração de recursos. É uma das instituições mais antigas do sistema financeiro brasileiro e mantém papel relevante no financiamento da atividade econômica, incluindo pessoas físicas, empresas, governo e agronegócio.\n\nA estrutura operacional combina canais digitais com rede física de agências e correspondentes, oferecendo conta corrente, cartões, crédito consignado e imobiliário, financiamento rural e empresarial, tesouraria, câmbio, comércio exterior, previdência, capitalização e seguros por meio de empresas ligadas e parcerias estratégicas. O banco também atua em gestão de ativos, distribuição de fundos e serviços de mercado de capitais.\n\nNo posicionamento competitivo, o Banco do Br…", "enterpriseValue": 2335989335617, "analystTargetLow": 0, "analystTargetHigh": 0, "analystTargetMean": 0, "fullTimeEmployees": 86574, "sharesOutstanding": 5730834000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 0, "analystTargetMedian": 0, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0, "operatingCashflowTTM": 159254090000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.120Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnqylasz000qp658q8230mog", "runId": "cmnqylasv000hp6588izdocg6", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BBAS3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":24.49,\"target_price_6m\":26.80,\"target_price_12m\":28.50,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Trades at 0.69x P/B, steep discount for improving ROE profile\",\"P/E of ~10x reflects excessive governance discount on state-controlled bank\",\"Agribusiness lending franchise provides durable competitive moat\",\"Dividend yield plus buybacks support ~8-10% total shareholder return\",\"ROE recovery toward 12%+ would drive meaningful P/B re-rating\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"ROE improvement from 8.7% toward 12% on better asset mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Agribusiness credit cycle remains supportive\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazilian Selic rate trajectory impacts NIM and credit demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"State-ownership governance discount limits re-rating speed\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit quality / NPL trends in consumer and SME books\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital transformation reducing cost-to-income ratio\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fiscal policy risk affecting sovereign-linked balance sheet\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee income growth from insurance and asset management arms\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Deterioration in Brazilian macro could spike NPLs and provisions\",\"Political interference in lending decisions or dividend policy\",\"Competitive pressure from fintechs and digital banks on fee income\",\"Prolonged high Selic may compress loan demand and increase funding costs\",\"Agricultural commodity price downturn impacting rural portfolio quality\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.12,\"wacc\":0.15,\"terminal_multiple\":0.85},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":20.50,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Macro deterioration drives NPL spike; P/B compresses to ~0.58x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":28.50,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual ROE recovery to ~11-12%; P/B re-rates to ~0.81x book.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":33.00,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong ROE recovery above 13%; P/B approaches 0.94x on positive macro.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Bank-specific valuation anchored on P/B vs sustainable ROE framework. Book value/share ~BRL 35.3. Base case assumes ROE normalizes to 11-12% warranting 0.80-0.85x P/B. Cost of equity assumed at 15% (Brazil risk premium). assumptions.ebit_margin_target repurposed as target ROE; terminal_multiple repurposed as target P/B. Sell-side consensus noted around BRL 28-32 range but not used as input. Disclaimer: not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Deterioration in Brazilian macro could spike NPLs and provisions", "Political interference in lending decisions or dividend policy", "Competitive pressure from fintechs and digital banks on fee income", "Prolonged high Selic may compress loan demand and increase funding costs", "Agricultural commodity price downturn impacting rural portfolio quality" ], "ticker": "BBAS3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual ROE recovery to ~11-12%; P/B re-rates to ~0.81x book.", "target_price": 28.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro deterioration drives NPL spike; P/B compresses to ~0.58x.", "target_price": 20.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong ROE recovery above 13%; P/B approaches 0.94x on positive macro.", "target_price": 33 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.15, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 0.85, "ebit_margin_target": 0.12 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "ROE improvement from 8.7% toward 12% on better asset mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Agribusiness credit cycle remains supportive", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian Selic rate trajectory impacts NIM and credit demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "State-ownership governance discount limits re-rating speed", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Credit quality / NPL trends in consumer and SME books", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital transformation reducing cost-to-income ratio", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fiscal policy risk affecting sovereign-linked balance sheet", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fee income growth from insurance and asset management arms", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Bank-specific valuation anchored on P/B vs sustainable ROE framework. Book value/share ~BRL 35.3. Base case assumes ROE normalizes to 11-12% warranting 0.80-0.85x P/B. Cost of equity assumed at 15% (Brazil risk premium). assumptions.ebit_margin_target repurposed as target ROE; terminal_multiple repurposed as target P/B. Sell-side consensus noted around BRL 28-32 range but not used as input. Disclaimer: not investment advice.", "current_price": 24.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trades at 0.69x P/B, steep discount for improving ROE profile", "P/E of ~10x reflects excessive governance discount on state-controlled bank", "Agribusiness lending franchise provides durable competitive moat", "Dividend yield plus buybacks support ~8-10% total shareholder return", "ROE recovery toward 12%+ would drive meaningful P/B re-rating" ], "target_price_6m": 26.8, "target_price_12m": 28.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 36852, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.133Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3723, "outputTokens": 1718, "costUsd": 0.061565 } }, { "id": "cmnqylasz000tp658du61xpcg", "runId": "cmnqylasv000hp6588izdocg6", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"BankValuationModel\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBAS3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 24.49,\n \"target_price_6m\": 26.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 28.23,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"State-controlled bank with stable revenue and market position.\",\n \"Trading below book value with ROE exceeding cost of equity.\",\n \"Digital initiatives driving efficiency and customer acquisition.\",\n \"Exposure to Brazilian economic cycles offers growth potential.\",\n \"Dividend yield provides income cushion amid volatility.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Loan growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Net interest margin\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brazilian economic conditions\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Digital adoption rate\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Credit quality trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn in Brazil\",\n \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"Regulatory risks\",\n \"Credit risk from loan portfolio\",\n \"Operational risks like cyber threats\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.035,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.1,\n \"wacc\": 0.12,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 0.8\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 22.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic contraction leading to higher credit losses.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 28.23, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Stable growth with gradual margin improvement.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 32.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong recovery boosting earnings and valuation.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on target P/B of 0.8x vs current 0.69x, implying 15% upside. BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "BankValuationModel", "risks": [ "Economic downturn in Brazil", "Interest rate volatility", "Regulatory risks", "Credit risk from loan portfolio", "Operational risks like cyber threats" ], "ticker": "BBAS3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Stable growth with gradual margin improvement.", "target_price": 28.23 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic contraction leading to higher credit losses.", "target_price": 22 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong recovery boosting earnings and valuation.", "target_price": 32 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 0.8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Loan growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest margin", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brazilian economic conditions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital adoption rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit quality trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on target P/B of 0.8x vs current 0.69x, implying 15% upside. BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 24.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "State-controlled bank with stable revenue and market position.", "Trading below book value with ROE exceeding cost of equity.", "Digital initiatives driving efficiency and customer acquisition.", "Exposure to Brazilian economic cycles offers growth potential.", "Dividend yield provides income cushion amid volatility." ], "target_price_6m": 26, "target_price_12m": 28.23 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 440, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.133Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2220, "outputTokens": 3723, "costUsd": 0.002185 } }, { "id": "cmnqylasz000rp65855uyg5o1", "runId": "cmnqylasv000hp6588izdocg6", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_BBAS3\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBAS3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 24.49,\n \"target_price_6m\": 26.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 28.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Discounted valuation at 0.69x P/B offers a margin of safety despite macroeconomic headwinds.\",\n \"Strong exposure to the resilient Brazilian agribusiness sector supports loan book stability.\",\n \"Government ownership remains a persistent overhang, capping multiple expansion and strategic flexibility.\",\n \"Asset quality metrics require monitoring amid elevated domestic interest rates and inflation pressures.\",\n \"Potential for dividend yield expansion if payout ratios normalize to historical averages.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Agribusiness loan growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Selic rate trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Government intervention risk\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"NPL ratio trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend payout ratio\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating efficiency and cost control\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital transformation initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Direct political interference in lending policies or dividend distributions.\",\n \"Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher defaults.\",\n \"Increased competition from digital banks and fintechs compressing margins.\",\n \"Regulatory changes impacting capital requirements or fee structures.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.135,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 0.8\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 21.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Asset quality deteriorates and government intervention increases, driving ROE down to 6 percent.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 28.50,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady loan growth and stable NPLs allow ROE to normalize to 12 percent with a 0.8x P/B.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 33.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Strong agribusiness performance and higher dividend payouts push ROE to 15 percent and P/B to 1.0x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a Residual Income Model and historical P/B vs ROE regression. Target price of 28.50 BRL implies a 0.8x P/B, reflecting a normalized ROE of 12% and Ke of 13.5%. The 16.3% upside supports a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_BBAS3", "risks": [ "Direct political interference in lending policies or dividend distributions.", "Deterioration in Brazilian macroeconomic conditions leading to higher defaults.", "Increased competition from digital banks and fintechs compressing margins.", "Regulatory changes impacting capital requirements or fee structures." ], "ticker": "BBAS3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady loan growth and stable NPLs allow ROE to normalize to 12 percent with a 0.8x P/B.", "target_price": 28.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Asset quality deteriorates and government intervention increases, driving ROE down to 6 percent.", "target_price": 21 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong agribusiness performance and higher dividend payouts push ROE to 15 percent and P/B to 1.0x.", "target_price": 33 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.135, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 0.8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Agribusiness loan growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Selic rate trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Government intervention risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "NPL ratio trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend payout ratio", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating efficiency and cost control", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital transformation initiatives", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a Residual Income Model and historical P/B vs ROE regression. Target price of 28.50 BRL implies a 0.8x P/B, reflecting a normalized ROE of 12% and Ke of 13.5%. The 16.3% upside supports a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 24.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Discounted valuation at 0.69x P/B offers a margin of safety despite macroeconomic headwinds.", "Strong exposure to the resilient Brazilian agribusiness sector supports loan book stability.", "Government ownership remains a persistent overhang, capping multiple expansion and strategic flexibility.", "Asset quality metrics require monitoring amid elevated domestic interest rates and inflation pressures.", "Potential for dividend yield expansion if payout ratios normalize to historical averages." ], "target_price_6m": 26.5, "target_price_12m": 28.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25591, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.133Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2438, "outputTokens": 898, "costUsd": 0.015652 } }, { "id": "cmnqylasz000pp658bquplob0", "runId": "cmnqylasv000hp6588izdocg6", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"BBAS3\",\"currency\":\"BRL\",\"current_price\":24.49,\"target_price_6m\":26.2,\"target_price_12m\":27.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Valuation remains discounted versus profitability and franchise quality.\",\"Agribusiness and payroll lending support resilient credit growth.\",\"Capital returns via dividends support total shareholder yield.\",\"State control caps multiples and raises policy-intervention risk.\",\"Asset-quality normalization should offset modest revenue growth.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Discounted price-to-book\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend capacity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Agribusiness lending mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit cost normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net interest margin pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"State ownership overhang\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Brazil macro and rates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital adequacy\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Political interference in pricing or lending\",\"Higher delinquencies in corporate or rural books\",\"Rate cuts compress spreads faster than funding costs\",\"Regulatory or tax changes on banks\",\"Execution risk in digital competition\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.2,\"ebit_margin_target\":0,\"wacc\":0.16,\"terminal_multiple\":0.85},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":22,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Lower spreads and higher provisions keep valuation near current book discount.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":27.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady earnings and dividends drive rerating toward a still-discounted multiple.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":31,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Better asset quality and payout lift ROE and narrow state-owned discount.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Targets use normalized earnings and P/B rerating versus current 0.69x book, not sell-side targets. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were kept authoritative; some generic fields like EBITDA/EBIT margin are less meaningful for banks. Recommendation fits ~12% 12M upside with medium uncertainty; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Political interference in pricing or lending", "Higher delinquencies in corporate or rural books", "Rate cuts compress spreads faster than funding costs", "Regulatory or tax changes on banks", "Execution risk in digital competition" ], "ticker": "BBAS3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady earnings and dividends drive rerating toward a still-discounted multiple.", "target_price": 27.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Lower spreads and higher provisions keep valuation near current book discount.", "target_price": 22 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Better asset quality and payout lift ROE and narrow state-owned discount.", "target_price": 31 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.16, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.2, "terminal_multiple": 0.85, "ebit_margin_target": 0 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Discounted price-to-book", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend capacity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Agribusiness lending mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit cost normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest margin pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "State ownership overhang", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brazil macro and rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital adequacy", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Targets use normalized earnings and P/B rerating versus current 0.69x book, not sell-side targets. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were kept authoritative; some generic fields like EBITDA/EBIT margin are less meaningful for banks. Recommendation fits ~12% 12M upside with medium uncertainty; not investment advice.", "current_price": 24.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation remains discounted versus profitability and franchise quality.", "Agribusiness and payroll lending support resilient credit growth.", "Capital returns via dividends support total shareholder yield.", "State control caps multiples and raises policy-intervention risk.", "Asset-quality normalization should offset modest revenue growth." ], "target_price_6m": 26.2, "target_price_12m": 27.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0e13f3de827c09460069d727a4c4148194a11239651f8df5db", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19508, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.133Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2435, "outputTokens": 1034, "costUsd": 0.018737 } }, { "id": "cmnqylasz000sp658t3304uow", "runId": "cmnqylasv000hp6588izdocg6", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Fundamental Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"BBAS3\",\n \"currency\": \"BRL\",\n \"current_price\": 24.49,\n \"target_price_6m\": 26.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 29.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Trades at low 0.69x P/B versus ROE and history.\",\n \"Strong agribusiness franchise drives stable revenue.\",\n \"Attractive 3% dividend yield boosts total return.\",\n \"Modest 4-5% loan growth amid Brazil macro risks.\",\n \"Digital efficiency gains offset government ownership drag.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Low P/B valuation\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Agribusiness leadership\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend yield\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Govt ownership risks\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Loan growth outlook\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Asset quality trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Efficiency improvements\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Political interference from government control\",\n \"Weak macro slows loan demand and raises NPLs\",\n \"Higher funding costs compress net interest margin\",\n \"Regulatory tightening on dividends or capital\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 4.5,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.2,\n \"wacc\": 0.115,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 21.0,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged high rates and asset quality deterioration.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 29.0,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Stable growth, agribusiness strength, and efficiency gains.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 36.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong economy, robust loan growth, and multiple re-rating.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"P/B residual-income model anchored to 4.5% rev CAGR, 11.5% COE and 8x terminal. 18% 12M upside fits BUY per rubric. Uses snapshot data only. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T21:30:33.000Z", "model": "AI Fundamental Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Political interference from government control", "Weak macro slows loan demand and raises NPLs", "Higher funding costs compress net interest margin", "Regulatory tightening on dividends or capital" ], "ticker": "BBAS3", "currency": "BRL", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Stable growth, agribusiness strength, and efficiency gains.", "target_price": 29 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Prolonged high rates and asset quality deterioration.", "target_price": 21 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong economy, robust loan growth, and multiple re-rating.", "target_price": 36 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.115, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4.5, "terminal_multiple": 8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Low P/B valuation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Agribusiness leadership", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Govt ownership risks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Loan growth outlook", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Asset quality trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Efficiency improvements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "P/B residual-income model anchored to 4.5% rev CAGR, 11.5% COE and 8x terminal. 18% 12M upside fits BUY per rubric. Uses snapshot data only. not investment advice.", "current_price": 24.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trades at low 0.69x P/B versus ROE and history.", "Strong agribusiness franchise drives stable revenue.", "Attractive 3% dividend yield boosts total return.", "Modest 4-5% loan growth amid Brazil macro risks.", "Digital efficiency gains offset government ownership drag." ], "target_price_6m": 26.5, "target_price_12m": 29 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "5c14fe85-f24d-9bae-9290-e7fdec9d4b9a", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22953, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T04:10:25.133Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2780, "outputTokens": 2889, "costUsd": 0.051675 } } ] } }